Trouble Ahead For Climate Alarmists

2015-12-24-14-22-53

Wood for Trees: Interactive Graphs

Normally El Nino produces a large spike in temperature in the lower troposphere, like in 1998 and 2010. But this year’s record El Nino failed to do that, indicating that some other effect is suppressing temperatures. The El Nino is collapsing, and in a few months temperatures are likely to plummet. Then they will have to take credit for saving the planet at COP 21 – and move back to the global cooling scam.

“We cooled the planet too much!”

About Tony Heller

Just having fun
This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

57 Responses to Trouble Ahead For Climate Alarmists

  1. gator69 says:

    Children just aren’t going to know what El Nino is. Panic and raise taxes.

  2. Latitude says:

    but this was the super colossal humdinger el nino

    • I am not familiar with this El Nino, when did it begin?

      • Gail Combs says:

        Bob Tisdale is a go to for information on ENSO
        2015-16 El Nino Series

        And yes Bob agrees: December 2015 ENSO Update – Shouldn’t Be Long Now Until the El Niño Starts to Decay

        Also see El Nino-La Nina Processes for an explanation and diagrams of how this ocean/wind phenomenon works.

        ……………….
        The wind is a major climate forcing that is completely overlooked BTW. (Solar – Climate link may be?)
        ………….

        fhhaynie, a retired EPA scientist says

        If I were asked to pick a single point on earth that most likely has the greatest effect on global weather and climate, it would be 0 and 90W (Galapagos). This is where El-nino winds, the deep sea Cromwell current, the Panama current, and the Humboldt current meet. These flows are not constant and each has different cycles and those cycles are not constant. Cycles on cycles create extremes in weather and climate. These extremes have an effect globally. I suspect these cycles are also controlling our observed atmospheric concentration of CO2. CO2 is very likely a lagging indicator and not a cause of climate change.
        http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/18/comments-on-the-nature-article-climate-change-the-case-of-the-missing-heat/#comment-1540259

        The Cromwell Current is also called Pacific Equatorial Undercurrent or the Equatorial Undercurrent and is eastward-flowing and down 300 feet (100 m) under the surface of the Pacific Ocean at the Equator. (Shown on Bob Tisdales’ cartoons of ENSO)

        The Humboldt current is the tongue from the wind driven Antarctic Circumpolar current that runs up the east coast of South America from Drake Passage and gives El Nino it’s name.

        Effect of Drake Passage on the global thermohaline circulation
        Abstract-
        The Ekman divergence around Antarctica raises a large amount of deep water to the ocean’s surface. The regional Ekman transport moves the upwelled deep water northward out of the circumpolar zone. The divergence and northward surface drift combine, in effect, to remove deep water from the interior of the ocean. This wind-driven removal process is facilitated by a unique dynamic constraint operating in the latitude band containing Drake Passage. Through a simple model sensitivity experiment WC show that the upwelling and removal of deep water in the circumpolar belt may be quantitatively related to the formation of new deep water in the northern North Atlantic. These results show that stronger winds in the south can induct more deep water formation in the north and more deep outflow through the South Atlantic. The fact that winds in the southern hemisphere might influence the formation of deep water in the North Atlantic brings into question long-standing notions about the forces that drive the ocean’ thermohaline circulation….

        Research on Drakes Passage today:

        …Significance

        The experiments address a fundamental question of how the circulation of the ocean works. Since the global overturning circulation is apparently sensitive to wind even in regions where the ocean has eastern and western boundaries, it may be influenced by wind outside the Drake Passage latitudes. However, our results indicate that the unique geometry of the Drake Passage latitudes does make the global circulation – and perhaps the climate of the North Atlantic – especially sensitive to wind there.
        http://climate.gmu.edu/research/drake.php

        …to unpredictable, often wild weather, marked by warm and very dry summers in the late 1320s and 1330s and by a notable increase in storminess and wind strengths in the English Channel and North Sea. The moist, mild westerlies that had nourished Europe throughout the Medieval Warm Period turned rapidly on and off . . . . The Little Ice Age had begun.
        http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/10639819/UK-weather-its-not-as-weird-as-our-warmists-claim.html

        A warmer climate means more evaporation and therefore more rain. Also if Stephen Wilde is correct, a warmer world has zonal jets. A change to a cooler world is going to change the position of the jets and therefore change the rain fall patterns.

        Here are the Papers that support that conclusion:

        They actually did field research in this study on atmospheric circulation shifts.

        06 May 2012 Nature Geoscience | Letter Regional atmospheric circulation shifts induced by a grand solar minimum

        ABSTRACT
        Large changes in solar ultraviolet radiation can indirectly affect climate by inducing atmospheric changes. Specifically, it has been suggested that centennial-scale climate variability during the Holocene epoch was controlled by the Sun. However, the amplitude of solar forcing is small when compared with the climatic effects and, without reliable data sets, it is unclear which feedback mechanisms could have amplified the forcing. Here we analyse annually laminated sediments of Lake Meerfelder Maar, Germany, to derive variations in wind strength and the rate of 10Be accumulation, a proxy for solar activity, from 3,300 to 2,000 years before present. We find a sharp increase in windiness and cosmogenic 10Be deposition 2,759? ±? 39 varve years before present and a reduction in both entities 199? ±? 9 annual layers later. We infer that the atmospheric circulation reacted abruptly and in phase with the solar minimum. A shift in atmospheric circulation in response to changes in solar activity is broadly consistent with atmospheric circulation patterns in long-term climate model simulations, and in reanalysis data that assimilate observations from recent solar minima into a climate model. We conclude that changes in atmospheric circulation amplified the solar signal and caused abrupt climate change about 2,800 years ago, coincident with a grand solar minimum.

        (I am sure the author of this following piece would faint dead away if he saw the use I was putting his words to.)

        Antarctic Circumpolar Current – Response to recent Climate change

        The westerlies, the prevailing winds between 30oS and 60oS, in the Southern Hemisphere have been observed to have intensified significantly over the past decades….

        Sources & Further reading
        Boning, C. W., A. Dispert, M. Visbeck, S. Rintoul, and F. U. Schwarzkopf. “Response of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current to Recent Climate Change.” Nature Geosci. 1 (// 2008): 864-69.

        The links between solar wavelength variability, ozone formation and destruction, winds and climate are slowly being made. I have tons of studies that address bits and pieces.

  3. No problem. They can modify the GISS data at leisure.

  4. AndyG55 says:

    and

    http://notrickszone.com/2015/12/21/the-super-collapsing-el-nino-ncep-cfsv2-n-hemisphere-temps-plummet-1c-in-a-single-week/#sthash.D98qg0Pd.dpbs

    If this is all the current El Nino has, I really will have to invest in a popcorn machine for next year as the La Nina and sleepy sun start to bite !

  5. jimmy Haigh says:

    I can see the headlines now: “Global Warming/Climate change causes strong El Nino to have minimal effect on global temperatures”.

  6. rah says:

    They can “adjust” the data all they want but can’t change the reality that is more than likely going to play out in the next few years. The AMO going negative and the lowest solar activity since 1928 combined with what will probably be a deep La Nina could very well mean that we that live in the temperate and Polar zones are in for some harder colder times.

    • Gail Combs says:

      Given all of those who are predicting major cooling going forward for the next few decades at least, it should get really really interesting as they try to spin CAGW into ‘Global Cooling’.

      Luckily there are enough people who have taken screenshots of the CAGW propaganda.

      Already the David Viner “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is…” news article has disappeared down the memory hole.

      There is a SS piece already spinning Viner’s comment like mad.
      EXCERPT FROM GOOGLE (I will not give SS any traffic.)

      Does record snowfall disprove global warming? – Skeptical Science
      skepticalscience.com/Does-record-snowfall-disprove-global-warming.html?
      Mar 7, 2010 … Overall, the total amount of snow cover has shown a long-term decreasing trend. … According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research … “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.

      “…snow cover has shown a long-term decreasing trend….” ????

      Not any longer. As of June 2015:
      https://i1.wp.com/realclimatescience.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/ScreenHunter_2301-Jun.-07-09.15.gif

      The propagandist are already trying to rewrite the 1970s Global Cooling scare so we can expect M.Winston Smith to get busy erasing the CAGW scare.

      I went looking for Nigel Calder’s comments on the 1970s Global Cooling scare. (He covered it as a science reporter.) And I found this instead:

      Tradecraft of propaganda

      His Dad wrote propaganda for the UK government.

    • David A says:

      Rah, in addition we should consider why the el Nino this year has had a smaller affect on global T.

      Although perhaps exaggerated, SST were at or near record highs. So as mentioned by you, and others, the N. Atlantic is cooling, but so is the Pacific.

      So this El Nino appears to be countered by some general cooling, which as mentioned, in conjunction with a quiet Sun and a likely La Nina, will leave global cooling (CAGC) as the climate yoyo’s next refuge.

  7. gator69 says:

    Sorry Tony, but Obama says CAGW is undeniable.

    During a news conference at the COP21 climate conference in Paris on Tuesday, President Obama had some words for the Republicans hoping to win his job: “Everyone else is taking climate change really seriously.” In other countries, he said, “They think it’s a really big problem. It spans political parties.”

    But in the United States, everything about climate change is politically divisive. There appears to be little common ground on what causes it, what to do about it — or even, in the case of some Republicans, whether the problem exists at all. While the president noted that “99.5 percent of scientists and experts [and] 99 percent of world leaders” agree human-caused climate change needs to be reckoned with, some Republican leaders have called it a “hoax” and a “contrived, phony mess.”

    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/how-climate-change-became-so-politicized/

    You see, another 2.5% of scientists and experts have now joined the irrefutable 97% of scientists and experts who agree that they agree on believing in CAGW, and that anyone who disagrees with them are definitely not scientists and experts, except for maybe .5% of scientists and experts who agree that they agree on believing in CAGW and that anyone who disagrees with them are definitely not scientists and experts, who will likely change their minds and start believing they agree with the other 97% who originally agreed they believed in CAGW and that anyone who disagrees with them are definitely not scientists and experts plus the 2.5% of new converts who now say they believe they agree with the original 97% of those scientists and experts who agreed to beleive in CAGW and that anyone who disagrees with them are definitely not scientists and experts, bringing the total to 100% of scientists and experts who agree on CAGW and say that anyone who disagrees is most definitely not a scientist or expert who agrees with their 100% consensus on CAGW, before the next big CAGW consensus meeting agreement.

  8. omanuel says:

    Regretfully, the SCM (Standard Climate Model) is as valid as

    1. The SNM (Standard Nuclear Model)
    2. The SSM (Standard Solar Model)
    3. The BBC (Big Bang Cosmology) Model

    Alphabetical research agencies – DOE, EPA, NASA, NOAA, NSF, etc. – were designed and started after WWII to generate 97% worldwide consensus “scientific evidence” in favor of any propaganda Stalin wanted to promote in order to maintain control of the world after nations were united on 24 OCT 1945.

    That is why George Orwell moved from London to the Scittish Isle of Jura in 1946 to start writing his futuristic novel, Nineteen Eighty-Four

    • Ted says:

      Oliver-

      I’ve been kicking around the beginnings of an unusual theory about a steady state universe for a long time, and I’m curious as to your thoughts. If you’re interested, can you recommend a more appropriate forum where we could discuss it?

  9. Henry P says:

    indicating that some other effect is suppressing temperatures.

    All of that because since 1995 the sun is getting hotter i.e. brighter [less spots] i.e less solar polar magnetic field strength i.e more of the most energetic particles released, i.e. more ozone, more N-oxides, more peroxides formed TOA, i.e. more UV, A + B, deflected off from earth,
    i.e. less UV reaching the 70% water – where most UV is eventual transformed into heat –
    the oceans are the main source of energy of earth….

    • Henry P says:

      the oceans are the main source of energy of earth…
      should perhaps read,
      the oceans are the main stores of energy of earth….

      • Gail Combs says:

        I think of the oceans as capacitors with El Niños as the discharge phase.

        As you say HenryP,
        Given the oceans cover 70% of the surface of the earth.
        Given the sun’s energy heats the oceans to a depth of 100 meters.
        And given [t]he specific heat of water is 1 calorie/gram °C = 4.186 joule/gram °C which is higher than any other common substance.

        The whole idea of the earth’s energy being in ‘balance’ and CO2 as the climate control knob is laughable. Especially when we have ZERO decent data about the amount of heat stored in the oceans over time.

        Dr Nir Shaviv takes a stab at it. In The oceans as a calorimeter

        And that is before you add in the other effects of water, the latent heat of vaporization, clouds, ice and albedo. It is really amazing that anyone with a science background actually fell for the propaganda.

        • RealOldOne2 says:

          From your extensive, excellent comments, you likely have this already, but if not, here is a link to Shaviv’s p-r paper ‘Using the oceans as a calorimeter to quantify the solar radiative effect’ : http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2007JA012989/epdf

          In the paper he says “We find that the total radiative forcing associated with solar cycles variations is about 5 to 7 times larger than those just associated with the TSI variations, thus implying the necessary existence of an amplification mechanisn, although without pointing to which one.”
          Merry Christmas to all

        • Gail Combs says:

          Thanks RealOldOne2

          Dr Shaviv has the link to his paper at the bottom of his layman’s explanation.

          The fact that Dr Shaviv goes out of his way to explain his research to layman and even answer questions makes him a REAL scientist in MHO.

          He is a great example of how scientists love to talk of their work. (Who wouldn’t?) It is in major contrast to the ClimAstrologist’s attitude of “”Why should I give you my data when all you want to do is find errors in it”.” — Phil Jones e-mail to Warwick Hughes in 1992. (Does Jones even KNOW what the scientific method is?— OH WAIT — he can’t even use Excel, — never mind.)

          We see this over and over with the refusal to obey FOIA requests by Phil Jones, Mikey Mann (Who won’t even answer Discovery requirements in a court of law) Univ of Virginia, Penn State and now NOAA.

          This is the obstruction found in fraudsters and not the behavior of scientists. If you find something different, the first thing you do is ask some one to verify what you thought you saw.

          As Isaac Asimov said, “The most exciting phrase to hear in science, the one that heralds new discoveries, is not “Eureka!” (I found it!) but “That’s funny …”

          I should add that I am a typical blabber mouth scientist. Driving curiosity combined with a desire to share the information.

        • Henry P says:

          N Shaviv ‘s paper was interesting!

          He says
          “This implies that an amplification mechanism necessarily exists. Interestingly, the size is consistent with what would be expected from the observed low altitude cloud cover variations. ”

          We agree on that. However, due to this graph,
          https://i2.wp.com/oi61.tinypic.com/ju7fw9.jpg

          where a sinusoid for O3 concentration seems more probable,
          it appears more likely to me that the ozone/peroxide/N-O connection is the first tier amplification, which seems to cause somewhat more cooling at the higher latitudes and allowing less UV into the oceans…

          Then, the 2nd amplification, is simply this:
          As the temperature differential between the poles and equator grows larger due to the cooling from the top, very likely something will also change on earth. Predictably, there would be a small (?) shift of cloud formation and precipitation, more towards the equator, on average. At the equator insolation is 684 W/m2 whereas on average it is 342 W/m2. So, if there are more clouds in and around the equator, this will amplify the cooling effect due to less direct natural insolation of earth (clouds deflect a lot of radiation). Furthermore, in a cooling world there is more likely less moisture in the air, but even assuming equal amounts of water vapour available in the air, a lesser amount of clouds and precipitation will be available for spreading to higher latitudes. So, a natural consequence of global cooling is that at the higher latitudes it will become cooler and/or drier.

          A final amplification effect is the increase in cloud cover, simply initiated by the increased O3, N-O and peroxide compounds, formed TOA, by said variation in the Sun’s radiation.

          So, just pure physics and chemistry is enough to explain what happens, more or less. You don’t have to bring in a “cosmic ray” theory at all, to make “things” fit.

  10. markstoval says:

    There are those of us who really think we are headed into much colder times and there is nothing that humans can do to stop it. If we are correct, I wonder how long it will take the climate “scientists” to acknowledge that CO2 does nothing.

    • Stephen Richards says:

      It will depend entirely on the visual effects of the cooling. If it is not widespread they will be able to continue their scam

      • David A says:

        They will jump on Mann’s latest bandwagon; blaming mankind for the cooling.

        I really think Mann recognized the ocean cycles 35 years ago when he saw everything lined up for natural warming. Now he is trying to get ahead of the natural curve again.

        • rah says:

          They most certainly will try to jump on the man caused cooling bandwagon but the internet is forever and the simple unavoidable fact is that they predicted general warming and sea level rise rate increase and when neither of these things happen and in fact the opposite of what they predicted happens, there is no running away from their “settled science”. All the Kings horses and all the Kings me will not be able to put the AGW Humpty Dumpty back together again until a new gullible generation comes on the scene as long as the likes of Tony Heller are on the case.

    • Henry P says:

      the green industry has now grown so big, and so much [of our] pension funds is invested in it, that not even you and me may really want to shake the world too much.
      In any case, the global cooling won’t be that much…
      we already had a drop of about -0.1K or -0.2K,
      There will probably be another -0.3 or -0.4K in total, until the 87 year cycle sinus wave is completed.
      https://i0.wp.com/oi62.tinypic.com/33kd6k2.jpg
      My wife still laughs at me if I tell her of these figures, when the rooms within our house easily differ by more than 1K at any time of the day…..

    • Gail Combs says:

      Given the 1974 CIA Report and the Elite’s contempt for the Great Unwashed, why ever would you think the Elite aren’t aware that the earth is headed either
      1. Into the ‘Climate madhouse’ experienced near glacial inception as seen in the bumping along between the two insolation peaks of MIS11
      2. or full glaciation.

      We know they lie. We know they are only interested in protecting their own.

      What does all the recent events do? Starting in the 1970s, it strips Canada, the USA, the EU and Australia of their assets (factory, technology as well as $$$) and move them towards the equator while implementing a world government.

      Obama also seems to be doing his best at stirring the pot to create another set of major wars. Always good for culling the herd. I would hazard a guess that muslims and blacks and the innercity poor are to be the target of the backlash. Riots in cities as the lights go out. Major backlash against muslims as violence in the EU and the USA escalates.

      It is a Silly Wild A.. Guess, but it fits.

      Don’t forget that Hilary Clinton’s heroine is Fabian Eugenist Margaret Sanger.
      Secretary Clinton “In Awe” of Racist Eugenicist Margaret Sanger
      another link on Sanger
      The Fabian link,
      http://old.worldviewweekend.com/worldview-times/article.php?articleid=939
      has been yanked including nothing on the wayback machine. The last link has a comment by me with excerpts.

      ……………….

      There is also the Ted Turner quote.
      “A total population of 250-300 million people, a 95% decline from present levels, would be ideal.” – Ted Turner, founder of CNN and the UN Foundation

      Turner is pushing the Pleistocene rewilding of the USA.

      A guy in Siberia is trying to breed back to the Pleistocene Siberian ponies. He is Sergey Zimov.

      This is his web page: http://www.pleistocenepark.ru/en/

      and the info on the horses:
      http://www.pleistocenepark.ru/en/photo/68/

      This is his scientific background:
      http://www.pleistocenepark.ru/en/background/
      He supposedly believes in CAGW. Yet his park is also where a mammoth may be recreated:

      Wooly mammoth blood recovered from frozen carcass, Russian scientists say

      Scientists already have deciphered much of the genetic code of the woolly mammoth from balls of mammoth hair found frozen in the Siberian permafrost. Some believe it’s possible to recreate the prehistoric animal if they find living cells in the permafrost.

      Siberian scientists announce they now have a ‘high chance’ to clone the woolly mammoth

      USA not to be left behind:
      Scientists Successfully Insert Woolly Mammoth DNA Into Elephant Genome
      (wwwDOT)

      Why are they trying to recreate ICE AGE ANIMALS if they believe in Global Warming???? Does anyone else see that as just plain weird?

    • Gail Combs says:

      Given the 1974 CIA Report and the Elite’s contempt for the Great Unwashed, why ever would you think the Elite aren’t aware that the earth is headed either
      1. Into the ‘Climate madhouse’ experienced near glacial inception as seen in the bumping along between the two insolation peaks of MIS11
      2. or full glaciation.

      We know they lie. We know they are only interested in protecting their own.

      What does all the recent events do? Starting in the 1970s, it strips Canada, the USA, the EU and Australia of their assets (factory, technology as well as $$$) and move them towards the equator while implementing a world government.

      Obama also seems to be doing his best at stirring the pot to create another set of major wars, Always good for culling the herd. I would hazard a guess that muslims and blacks and the innercity poor are to be the target of the backlash. Riots in cities as the lights go out. Major backlash against muslims as violence in the EU and the USA escalates.

      It is a Silly Wild A.. Guess, but it fits.

      Don’t forget that Hilary Clinton’s heroine is Fabian Eugenist Margaret Sanger.
      Secretary Clinton “In Awe” of Racist Eugenicist Margaret Sanger
      another link on Sanger
      The Fabian link,
      http://old.worldviewweekend.com/worldview-times/article.php?articleid=939
      has been yanked including nothing on the wayback machine. The last link has a comment by me with excerpts.

      • markstoval says:

        “We know they lie. We know they are only interested in protecting their own.”

        Yes, Gail they do lie. It is the nature of the state as a criminal gang writ large to lie to the people.

        Their main interest is to protect their power and to expand their power. The whole CAGW scam is just part of that, as it the whole “invade the whole world” thing. Mencken told us generations ago that the state will parade endless imaginary hobgoblins before us to get the population clamoring for protection. The state is one large organized crime protection racket.

        The whole CAGW thing will someday end (when it no longer serves a need) but the state will still be mankind’s biggest enemy. Education the public on that fact is difficult indeed. It make educating the common man on “global warming” seem easy by comparison.

        Oh, and by the way — I thank you for all the posts here. I wish I had time to respond more, but life gets in my way. I read all your stuff though.

        ~ Mark

    • Gail Combs says:

      There is also the Ted Turner quote.
      “A total population of 250-300 million people, a 95% decline from present levels, would be ideal.” – Ted Turner, founder of CNN and the UN Foundation

      Turner is pushing the Pleistocene rewilding of the USA.

      A guy in Siberia is trying to breed back to the wild Siberian ponies. He is Sergey Zimov.

      This is his web page: http://www.pleistocenepark.ru/en/

      and the info on the horses:
      http://www.pleistocenepark.ru/en/photo/68/

      This is his scientific background:
      http://www.pleistocenepark.ru/en/background/
      He supposedly believes in CAGW. Yet his park is also where a mammoth may be recreated:

      Wooly mammoth blood recovered from frozen carcass, Russian scientists say

      Scientists already have deciphered much of the genetic code of the woolly mammoth from balls of mammoth hair found frozen in the Siberian permafrost. Some believe it’s possible to recreate the prehistoric animal if they find living cells in the permafrost.

      Siberian scientists announce they now have a ‘high chance’ to clone the woolly mammoth

      USA not to be left behind:
      Scientists Successfully Insert Woolly Mammoth DNA Into Elephant Genome
      (wwwDOT)

      Why are they trying to recreate ICE AGE ANIMALS if they believe in Global Warming???? Does anyone else see that as just plain weird?

  11. Kristian says:

    I think we need to wait two to three months before we writing off this El Niño’s effect on tropospheric temps. There’s a lag, after all, which you can clearly see in the two previous major events.

  12. Henry P says:

    RealOldOne is right,
    I also forgot to say this:
    Merry Christmas to you all!!!

  13. Ted says:

    I feel dirty putting these in the same thread. They’re definitely NOT high quality music, but they’re funny. It’s South Park, so you know what you’re getting in to, if you play them.
    At the risk of being struck by lightning…

    ***********************SERIOUS LANGUAGE WARNING**********************************

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5YTJMSiaG10
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=33Fhv0u0nRk

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *