Top MIT Junk Scientist In Boulder Tomorrow

Twelve years ago, Kerry Emanuel of MIT predicted an increase in major hurricanes.

Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30[thinsp]years : Abstract : Nature

The US hasn’t had a major hurricane for almost twelve years, the longest such period on record. Because of his incompetence, Emanuel has been chosen to speak about hurricanes and global warming induced natural disasters at the CU World Affairs Conference tomorrow, at the Walter Orr Roberts Distinguished Lecture.

Walter Orr Roberts is well known for his predictions during the 1970’s that global cooling would lead to an increase in natural disasters “unstable climate, crop losses, food losses and death by starvation.

12 Jun 1974, Page 20 – at Newspapers.com

So the symptoms of global warming and global cooling are apparently identical.  And if this isn’t enough of a clown show already, Emanuel is ashamed to be an American because climate skeptics have called him out on his junk science.

I hope to attend this junk science lecture tomorrow and inject some factual information into their BS.

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42 Responses to Top MIT Junk Scientist In Boulder Tomorrow

  1. Lance says:

    I’m thinking the “personal” attack will start immediately without them even considering the topic!
    Don’t go down that road, give the audience the facts…

    well done Tony.

  2. John of Cloverdale, WA, Australia says:

    “Theory and modeling predict ……….”.
    As Sherlock Holmes said: You see, but you do not observe. The distinction is clear. It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts.

  3. David Reich says:

    Tony,

    Don’t know if you have seen this paper by Cambridge PhD M. Kelly which provides additional empirical evidence that there is no trend in extreme weather events; in fact he concludes it is deceasing. One can only wonder how this Dr. Emmanuel can engage in the discipline of “science” when he his evidence is non-existent. Best wishes for tomorrow! Looking forward to hearing what happens….

    https://www.omicsgroup.org/journals/trends-in-extreme-weather-events-since-1900–an-enduring-conundrum-for-wise-policy-advice-2167-0587-1000155.pdf

  4. Laurie says:

    Just be careful – seriously.

  5. GeologyJim says:

    Kerry Emanuel has been paid for decades by major insurance companies to prognosticate about potential weather-related risks/damages

    Hmmmmmmm . . . . . . conflicts of interest, anyone?!?

  6. John F. Hultquist says:

    See today’s Jo Nova post with a link to a Ryan Maue Southern Hemisphere report.

  7. John F. Hultquist says:

    Is Kerry ‘ashamed to be an American’ Emanuel moving to Venezuela or some other great place?
    Maybe he could get a grant to study shrinking glaciers in Maldives.
    His moving to either place would likely cause the average stupidity** level to increase.

    **Ref: George Carlin

  8. Griff says:

    But tropical cyclones is the name given to hurricanes that take place in the southern hemisphere, notably in the south Pacific, isn’t it?

    and are you quite sure there hasn’t been an increase in those?

    I note the damage in queensland and New Zealand only withing the last month…

    The NZ event has been classed as a 1 in 500 year event…

    • AndyG55 says:

      REAL DATA, griff.

      You should try it some time, instead of living in a FANTASY world of DENIAL.

      SH Accumulated Cyclone Energy was LESS THAN HALF of any year back to 1970 !

    • AndyG55 says:

      NZ storm.. worst in 49 years..

      http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/91481782/live-heavy-rain-expected-to-bring-flooding-to-already-sodden-areas

      oh… so there was a worse storm 50 years ago.. I see.. I get the picture….

      What a wonderfully BENIGN period we have been living through..

      Wouldn’t you agree, griff.

    • AndyG55 says:

      And of course “predicted” is rarely reached nowadays, is it! ;-)

    • Robertv says:

      Cyclone frequency

      On average 4.7 tropical cyclones per year affect the Queensland Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre Area of Responsibility. There is a strong relationship with eastern Australian tropical cyclone impacts and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, with almost twice as many impacts during La Niña than during El Niño. The likelihood of this occurring by pure chance is remote (significant at 99% level).

      There have been 207 known impacts from tropical cyclones along the east coast since 1858. Major east coast tropical cyclones impacts include 1890 Cardwell; 1893 Brisbane; 1898 NSW; 1899 Bathurst Bay; 1918 Innisfail; 1918 Mackay; 1927 Cairns and inland areas; 1934 Port Douglas; 1949 Rockhampton; 1954 Gold Coast; 1967 Dinah, Southern Queensland; 1970 Ada, Whitsunday Islands; 1971 Althea, Townsville; 1974 Wanda, Brisbane; and 2006 Larry, Innisfail.

      The Queensland region of the Gulf of Carpentaria region has been hit by several disastrous tropical cyclones. These include The 1887 Burketown cyclone, The 1923 Douglas Mawson cyclone, The 1936 Mornington Island cyclone; the 1948 Bentick Island cyclone and Ted in 1976.

      http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/about/eastern.shtml

      • dave1billion says:

        This is why I love this website.

        Someone throws up some anecdotal “evidence” and then someone pounces on it with actual empirical evidence and shreds the argument.

        Thanks AndyG55 and Robertv for doing the eavy lifting on this one.

    • AndyG55 says:

      Tell us, griff…

      … do you ALWAYS suck both your big toes while you are wetting the bed ?

      Seems to be you single attribute !

      • Robertv says:

        Often the most significant impact from tropical cyclones or indeed tropical lows is FLOODING.

        • toorightmate says:

          Rockhampton, Queensland floods are receding very quickly. The worst feature at the moment is a horrible smell, but the media has left town, so no one is told this. All the excitement for the media is gone.

          • RAH says:

            The single best thing for me when a powerful hurricane comes ashore in the US is watching the media dumbasses go out and stand in it.

          • dave1billion says:

            We’re all (across the political spectrum) waiting for them to get impaled by a tree branch. That’s attracts the eyeballs.

            I’ve stood in Hurricane force winds and while it can be exhilarating, watching branches and shingles whiz by makes one realize that discretion is the better part of foolhardiness.

            Let them come and stand in my neighborhood during a hurricane and see how quickly they head indoors.

    • toorightmate says:

      Griff old mate,
      May your foot in mouth problem be quickly cured.
      NZ has had floods and they are NOT 1:500 – more like 1:50, if that.
      Aussie cyclone activity is the lowest since records commenced – much to the anguish of Oz’s “esteemed” BOM which has wrongfully predicted the last several years to be bad.
      They were wrong – AGAIN.
      Modelling is giving our BOM a very bad name. Hopefully, they will soon either dismiss modelling OR refine models to include factors which we know effect climate (NOT CO2).

    • gator69 says:

      I’m beginning to believe that Ms Griff is being paid by the Koch brothers to make alarmists look extra extra stupid. Nobody could be this much of a moron all on their own.

    • RAH says:

      Griff says:
      April 12, 2017 at 8:42 am
      “But tropical cyclones is the name given to hurricanes that take place in the southern hemisphere, notably in the south Pacific, isn’t it?”

      Griff

      The term “Tropical Cyclone” is also used as a generic for any storms of those types that form anywhere in the world and that is what confuses people.
      Think of this way in terms of oceans:
      Typhoon – West and Northwest Pacific
      Hurricane- Atlantic and Northeast Pacific
      Cyclone – Indian Ocean and South Pacific.
      Tropical Cyclone – any of them that form anywhere.

      • John F. Hultquist says:

        anywhere?

        In the real world there are also extratropical cyclones, sometimes called mid-latitude cyclones while, also, there are many smaller storms or Low-Pressure systems that don’t get a fancy name.
        The common action is air flowing toward a (moving) center in a spiral-like flow, going up, cooling and forming clouds, precipitation, and releasing the heat of vaporization. That’s the heat taken from the surface as the water evaporates. The upward flow carries it to high elevation where it can radiate to space — cooling Earth.

        • RAH says:

          I see know error in what I wrote. The key word in the discussion was “tropical”. “Tropical cyclones” is the term used to describe tropical storms of that type that from anywhere. Your conflating that term having to do with storms of that type which form in the tropics with storms which form outside the tropics called “extratropical cyclones”.

    • Sunsettommy says:

      Griff,

      Kerry made a prediction, he was wrong,end of story!

      “Twelve years ago, Kerry Emanuel of MIT predicted an increase in major hurricanes.”

      Tony, pointed out this fact you manage to miss:

      “The US hasn’t had a major hurricane for almost twelve years, the longest such period on record.”

      Kerry’s paper was misleading from day one since it was predicted by the real Hurricane expert in the early 1990’s, that it would increase,because it was supposed to!

      From the 1990 NYT article.Dr. Gray stated that Hurricanes are on the increase soon:

      “IF a new analysis of the link between weather patterns in West Africa and the tropical Atlantic is correct, communities along the United States East Coast that experienced relatively few dangerous hurricanes in the 1970’s and 1980’s may face more frequent killer storms in the next two decades or so.”

      and,

      “The study suggests that this relatively calm period is ending and that a more violent period is about to begin or may already have begun. And the potential for damage is greater now, Dr. Gray said. ”There are more people and more development along the Atlantic Coast,” he said. ”There is more property to damage.”

      http://www.nytimes.com/1990/09/25/science/more-strong-hurricanes-predicted-for-east-in-next-2-decades.html?pagewanted=all

      I knew about this over 15 years ago,how come you still didn’t?

  9. frederik wisse says:

    He may be a relative of florinian Emanuels ! That would explain his excitement over hurricanes . Hopefully your president Trump will be able to cut off his subsidy-stream ,
    whereafter some reality may sink in into his nowadays prejudiced mind .

  10. Andy DC says:

    That is the halarious aspect of these self proclaimed experts. They actually have a track record you can examine that shows they have been wrong time and time again for decades.

    So when they pontificate in such a high and mighty know it all manner, it will no doubt be great fun to call them out on their track record and watch them squirm.

    If they were finacial advisors with their record of constant failure, they would have been laughed out on to the street a long time ago. But they are so shameless, they simply keep up with their tired old snake oil sales routine as if no one would ever bother to check the facts.

  11. RAH says:

    I guess they’ll just have to talk about tornadoes since the incidence in the US is approaching record territory YTD. But concerning tropical cyclone incidence and severity there really isn’t anything for an alarmist to talk about that does not refute their previous claims. Global ACE is currently 38% of average: http://models.weatherbell.com/tropical.php
    So far the noted authorities on long range prediction are calling for a season less active than average. The southern hemisphere has just set a now record low for tropical cyclone development.

    What’s an alarmist to do but lie about these facts or ignore them?

  12. Louis Hooffstetter says:

    For once I agree with Kerry Emanuel.
    I’m ashamed he’s an American as well.

  13. Tom Bakert says:

    I’d rather participate in a MAGA tour in North Korea.

  14. Alf says:

    The pause continues according to Notrickzone!!! alf

  15. Edmonton Al says:

    The Mann-made GW scam is bad enough.
    What about the EnegyStar scam….???

    http://lidblog.com/corrupt-epa-energy-star-scam/

  16. spren says:

    Several years ago, my son, who was a student at MIT invited me to a lecture where Emmanuel and Richard Lindzen were debating his claims regarding the increase in ACE.
    This was right after all the alarmist claims had been forecasted, and Lindzen really let him have it.

    I was able to personally speak with Dr. Lindzen following the debate and I found him to be a very interesting fellow. But, at that time, Emmanuel had the audience on his side. I wonder where they are now?

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