Arctic To Be Ice Free On November 10

I applied the top mathematical skills of the multi-billion dollar climate alarm industry (™Michael Mann ®Gavin Schmidt) and have determined that the Arctic will be ice free on November 10, with temperatures at -15C and 24 hours of darkness.

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78 Responses to Arctic To Be Ice Free On November 10

  1. Griff says:

    Well, it certainly might be showing a lower extent than the 2012 record in early September.

    check out the low concentration, thin ice being dispersed further by yet another storm:

    then reflect on the effect of that when the current extent is tied with 2007/12/16 and only 2011 lower.

    • gator69 says:

      What effect? Did somebody die? No?

      Then why do champion meaningless ice and work to snuff out poor brown people Ms Griff?

    • tonyheller says:

      More BS from Griff

    • AndyG55 says:

      MASIE has the extent above that of 2007, 2010, 2011,2012, 2014, 2016

      Russian ice charts show very little change from previous years in the 7/10 to 10/10 range.

      I wonder how many ships the US navy has up there. ;-)

      griff seems to be wetting his nappy , hoping desperately for another storm like in 2012

    • AndyG55 says:

      tell us little chicken-little..

      Which of these has more ice in the > 1.5m category?

      • AndyG55 says:

        Gees look , even Baffin Bay still has ice >1.5m

        Can anyone see anything >1.5m in 2008 in the bay ?

      • Stewart Pid says:

        Griff / village idiot sez it is thin, rotten ice and so it will quickly all melt away any minute now ;-)

      • arn says:

        It makes no sense posting charts,statistics and graphics for Griff as Griff isn’t even willing to acceppt the elephant in the room,
        (which is the simple fact,that her gods predicted an ice free
        arctic and (once again)their fearmongering apocalyptic scenarios completely .)

        When someone is not willing to acceppt that something is absolutely wrong in AGW science,though the evidence
        is overwhelming as these ‘experts’ have failed miserably
        and only “adjustments” help their theories survive,
        than more subtle stuff will be ignored by her with ease.

        1)The Arctic hasn’t change much
        though all superexperts predicted the ice will dissappear.

        2)New York isn’t under water- in fact everything is almost the same.

        3)The enourmous temperature rise did not happen,
        so these ‘experts’ needed to adjust and adjust and adjust
        to make temperature rise appear.

        4)Snow is far far away from being a thing from the past.
        In fact it has been snowing places where snow was almost unknown,like israel,istanbul,the sahara or santiago de chile(yesterday).

        5)Climate Gate

        You have all these stuff and still Griff is not ready
        to acceppt certain things.
        Tony has a far better track record than those ‘experts’
        and Griff knows this.
        Still Griff is not ready to give any kind of credit to Tony while defending the Mainstream Scientists with tooth and nails.

        Considering how hard it is to convince the Griffs of planet earth even when evidence is overwhelming
        how the hell can you convince the Griffs when things are not so obvious?
        And how the hell can you convince the uneducated Griffs-

        • Tommy Grand says:


          It would be one thing if folks said: “Well, ok, yes, various experts’ dire predictions never came to pass, but there’s still [insert evidence] that concerns me.”

          That, at least, would be a reasonable stance. We could debate that point in good faith. There’s room for reasonable people to disagree on this very complex topic. What’s beyond argument is that certain scary predictions have now been, thankfully, falsified. There’s considerable evidence that certain scientists exaggerated/ invented danger for personal enrichment, for career advancement, or for political/ideological reasons. Privately, many scientists who expect very gradual global warming, (e.g. less than 1 C per century) will cop to having told a “noble lie” to win a research grant, to keep a job, and/or to frighten uninformed plebes into making “responsible lifestyle choices.”

          I’m not defending such science. I’m saying there ought to be room for reasonable disagreement. But how can one have an intelligent conversion with true believers, acolytes of the mythical 97% consensus, who never confess a single error? Ask ’em, “When was the eerie, silent spring? When did Erlich’s population bomb detonate? When did Tuvalu join golden Atlantis, sinking beneath the sea?”

        • Griff says:

          The arctic has changed markedly.

          Just look at the ice extent in 1979 versus today and the winter temperatures…

          • gator69 says:

            1979 is a cherrry pick that is used by people who hate poor brown people. Why do you hate poor brown people Ms Griff?

          • sunsettommy says:

            The 1979 extent was probably the peak for the 20th century. It was a lot lower just six years earlier.

          • AndyG55 says:

            Yes, we KNOW 1979 was a MASSIVE EXTREME..

            FINALLY, you are realising this.

            Icelandic sea ice charts show the late 1970s as high as most of the Little Ice Age.

            The LIA was a time of desperate pestilence… you would feel at home back then, griff.

            Don’t think they had a cure for bed-wetting though. ! You really need to find one.

          • AndyG55 says:

            If you look at temperatures you will see it was also the COLDEST year since 1920, and that the WARMEST years were in the 1930s, 40s

    • Andy DC says:

      If you click on the Alaska chart on the above attachment, from the NOAA and the US Navy, you will note that as of July 17, the Arctic Ocean is still pretty much covered to the brim with ice. On top of that, temperatures are around
      0 C, with no warm up in sight.

      The sun is already heading south, so how could Ms. Griff possibly expect all that ice to magically disappear over the next weeks? Even Reggie’s 2 inch blowtorch can’t possibly save her now!

  2. ЯΞ√ΩLUT↑☼N says:

    Cripes Tony..

    Don’t do their work for them for free. They’ll appropriate that chart of yours and demand another Nobel.

  3. Th3o More says:

    The saving grace for us, the highly educated and intelligent saviors of all mankind, that as we properly predicted the Arctic will go ice free on the 10th of November in the year of Seemingly Scientific(™) 2017. Alas it will be nighttime as a result of the relentless onslaught of Orbital mechanics and none will be able to take pictures of the long yearned for day of darkest night. I would take pictures but my phone informs me that there are no nearby shops sell either film nor batteries. (Another proof of how fiercely we are persecuted by the evil deniers of Seemingly Scientific(™).

  4. CheshireRed says:

    Well that’s it then, we’re doomed. Was nice knowing you guys.

  5. Norilsk says:

    Bull feathers. My daughter and her family are movie back above the Arctic Circle to Tsiigehtchic, Northwest Territories from Whitehorse. I have to time either for September to get across the MacKenzie River by ferry or wait until December when the river is frozen. I would be flying into Inuvik.

    She says it starts to snow in September.

    • Colorado Wellington says:

      That cannot possibly be true. You are being mislead by your daughter.

      Why don’t you ask Ms Griff in London about the situation in the Arctic?

      She knows the ice is being dispersed. She’ll tell you where to go and what to do.

    • Andy DC says:

      It can’t possibly snow in September! Climate experts told us as far back as 2000 that snow was a thing of the past. Your daughter must be mistaking virtual snow from real snow.

  6. Norilsk says:

    Norilsk and Inuvik are the laregest cities above the Arctic Circle in their respective countries.

  7. That’s a best case scenario — You forgot the hockey stick.

    • KTM says:

      That’s what you get after you put Tony’s plot through a series of economic models and multiply by atmospheric CO2 levels.

  8. arn says:

    Just like AGW
    the Ice free arctic is Mann Made.

    The theory is based on the fact that ice might melt at -15 Gavin.

  9. The Watcher says:

    Even worse!! I’ve noticed a sudden and progressive decline in the daily sunshine since the end of June. At this rate by this time next year, I predict 24 hours per day of total darkness.
    I’m sure something has to be taxed to fight this dangerous change.

    • AndyG55 says:

      I think you are mistaken.

      Where I am the sun keeps coming up earlier each day, and there are more sunlight hours than in late June. ;-)

      • Colorado Wellington says:

        How can you even tell when you are upside down? You could be reading the hours wrong.

        • AndyG55 says:


        • AndyG55 says:

          Nope, its you guys that are wonky.

          Its mid afternoon here, and my test post says 5:04 am

          No wonder you guys are always so cornfused.

          Set your clocks correctly and you might be less cornfused.

          • Colorado Wellington says:

            You say it was mid afternoon. Is that the original raw observation? You know that’s scientifically meaningless without proper adjustments. Which model did you use to correct the record?

          • Colorado Wellington says:

            If it’s too confusing, ask Ms Griff for the correct adjustment algorithm to be applied to your recorded observation.

          • Andy DC says:

            You are obviously triple counting record low temperatures due to being in a screwed up hemisphere where Christmas comes in summertime. Therefore any and all of your temperature records must be scrutinized and adjusted by NOAA climate experts before they can enter the record book.

          • AndyG55 says:

            ” any and all of your temperature records must be scrutinized and adjusted by NOAA climate experts ”

            That could cause a MAJOR demarcation dispute with BOM..

            Although I suppose NOAA could just do a further “adjustment”, then hand it to another group for their special “adjustments”

          • Colorado Wellington says:

            Forget the temperature record for a moment.

            You said it was mid afternoon. That’s a raw, unadjusted observation that can’t possibly be true without a scientific correction. You may have believed it was mid afternoon but if you run it through BOM or another scientific authority you’d find you were wrong.

            And it doesn’t help you are in a screwed up hemisphere where everything is upside down. Even in the right-side-up hemisphere there are weird things like the Great October Socialist Revolution from November 1917 or Oktoberfest that starts in mid-September but nothing like this:

          • AndyG55 says:

            You win.. ! :-)

  10. R Shearer says:

    Arctic ice is gluten free and has been at least since 1998.

  11. Andy DC says:

    According to Griff, the Beach Boys plan to skim through both the NW Passage and NE Passage this summer on their surfboards, with bikini clad California beauties cheering them along, every step of the way. Somehow, even with Reggie’s mighty blowtorch running on full power, I would tend to seriously doubt it!

    • Gator69 says:

      My sincerest apologies to the Beach Boys…

      “Surfin’ Prudhoe Bay”

      You know Alaska has an ocean
      as warm as Biscayne Bay
      Now the Eskimos are surfin’
      Even on New Year’s day
      You see ‘em dress so scantily
      on skis and not snow shoes
      They’re slaloming around Shamu
      Surfin’ Prudhoe Bay

      You’d catch ‘em surfin’ at Homer (High tide, worldwide, Prudhoe Bay)
      And down at Ketchikan (High tide, worldwide, Prudhoe Bay)
      Junea and Sitka (High tide, worldwide, Prudhoe Bay)
      Nome and Unakleet (High tide, worldwide, Prudhoe Bay)
      All over Kaktovik
      And down at Koyuk way
      Eskimos gone surfin’
      Surfin’ Prudhoe Bay

      Because the white man pollutes
      Have no seals to harpoon
      They’re waxing down their surfboards
      Thank an oil tycoon
      No more seasons only summer
      We’re on surfari to stay
      Tell the media we’re surfin’
      Surfin’ Prudhoe bay

      Polar bear bikinis
      Custom whale bone shades
      Kuiu Island and Junea
      Seward and Bushkin Beach
      All over Alaska
      All the warmists say
      Eskimos gone surfin’
      Surfin’ Prudhoe Bay

      Eskimos gone surfin’
      Surfin’ Prudhoe Bay

      Eskimos gone surfin’
      Surfin’ Prudhoe Bay

    • Griff says:

      Several yachts and a cruise liner will sail through.

      As they have done for the last decade.

      And there wasn’t even one year like that in the 20th century

      • gator69 says:

        Several yachts and a cruise liner will sail through.

        Seven million will needlessly die. So which is the more imporatnt issue on which we should focus?

        Do you not care because they are brown Ms Griff?

      • neal s says:

        And yet there have been no more than three cargo vessels through the Northwest passage over the last 10 years. I wonder why that would be the case?

        If there really is so little ice in the Northwest passage, then I would expect many cargo vessels to take advantage of that. Why has this not happened? But the Russian side with all their icebreakers (including nuclear powered) have many many cargo vessels travelling each year, year after year.

        There wasn’t one year in the 20th century when we have had communications or satellites or ships like we do today.

        Tell me Griff … what if anything will convince you that you are wrong? If the answer is nothing, then your belief is a religion and a very bad one at that.

      • AndyG55 says:

        Yes, Isn’t it ABSOLUTELY WONDERFUL that people can again travel through the Arctic, like they did before the LIA.

        Albeit for only a few weeks. !

        Good thing Amundsen fund out that it could be done , way back in 1903, hey. :-)

  12. lance says:

    I’m going out on the limb here, and I don’t believe the ‘adjustments’ have been added in yet, thus, it will be much earlier than expected….IE,…Nov 1 …./sarc

  13. Frank K. says:

    Tony forgot to add the supplemental information for his modeling, like they do at the fancy science journals, so here it is:


    The ice extent model solution was obtained by solving the following differential equation:

    dI/dt = -C

    where I is the ice extent, t is time, and C is the “Griff*” constant, and represents all of the complex physics associated with Arctic ice melt. This equation was solved at the Los Alamos supercomputing facilities and required weeks of parallel CPU run time. After careful study, the climate scientists noted that the solution “looked remarkably like a line”, but more funded research will be required to understand why this is the case. Meanwhile, climate scientists have sounded the alarm to evacuate all beaches and low lying areas around the world before November 1 due to the expected catastrophic sea level rise from the melting ice.

    * Named for noted climate expert and polar bear biologist, Griff.

  14. willys36 says:

    Now that’s funny!

  15. RAH says:

    Tell me Griff. When will this mountain be ice and snow free?
    That pic was taken 12 days ago at 10,000 feet. In the back ground the high rock peak is Grand Teton over 13,000 ft. high. There is snow over 15′ deep in that picture in the cornice in the foreground. Tell me Griff, when it will be gone? You seem to think your so good at that kind of thing after all!

  16. I am not too concerned about the arctic ice falling to zero, but I am very worried about the implication of negative arctic ice. We simply have no idea how that would unprecedented situation would affect our climate.

    • Colorado Wellington says:

      We can’t risk Arctic ice volume to fall below zero. Theoretical physicists long believed such a thing could never happen but I’ve heard Stephen Hawking is working on a paper and the consequences could be catastrophic.

  17. sunsettommy says:

    Griff foot in the mouth comment over at WUWT,dated December 14,2016

    “…… BTW: does Susan actually have any qualifications to speak about bear populations?

    She does not research or publish (scientifically) about bears, nor is she involved in the biology of arctic populations, so far as I know.

    What she says is surely just opinion? any biologist who has read the papers surely has a view just as valid??”

    The very next comment posted by Climate Otter:

    “You don’t make much effort to find out anything, do you griff?

    I am a zoologist with more than 35 years experience, including published work on the Holocene history of Arctic animals. I am currently an adjunct professor at the University of Victoria, British Columbia and work full time for a private consulting company I co-own with two colleagues, Pacific Identifications Inc.

    Crockford 08_21_2011_0056b

    Like Ian Stirling, grand-daddy of all polar bear biologists, I earned my undergraduate degree in zoology at the University of British Columbia. Polar bear evolution is one of my professional interests, which I discuss in my 2006 book, Rhythms of Life: Thyroid Hormone and the Origin of Species (based on my Ph.D. dissertation earned in 2004 at the University of Victoria, B.C. Canada), see

    You’ll find a list of my publications (with a brief introduction) further down, after the list of my most popular posts (with links). At the bottom of this page is a brief bio for posting elsewhere.

    Zoogeography, paleoecology, archaeozoology and ostemetry papers
    **Crockford, S. J. 2012. Annotated map of ancient polar bear remains of the world. Electronic resource, available at http://polarbearscience/references ISBN 978-0-9917966-0-1.

    *Crockford, S.J. 2012. Archaeozoology of Adak Island: 6000 years of subsistence history in the central Aleutians. Pg. 109-145 in D. West, V. Hatfield, E. Wilmerding, L. Gualtieri and C. Lefevre (eds), The People Before: The Geology, Paleoecology and Archaeology of Adak Island, Alaska. British Archaeological Reports International Series, Oxford, pg 109-145. ISBN 978-4073-0905-7

    *Nishida, S., West, D., Crockford, S. and Koike, H. 2012. Ancient DNA analysis for the sea otter (Enhydra lutris) from archaeological sites on Adak, Aleutian Islands. Pg. 147-165 in D. West, V. Hatfield, E. Wilmerding, C. Lefèvre, L. Gualtieri (eds.), The People Before: The Geology, Paleoecology and Archaeology of Adak Island, Alaska. Oxford, British Archaeological Reports, International Series 2322, ISBN 978-4073-0905-7.

    *Wilson, B.J., Crockford, S.J., Johnson, J.W., Malhi, R.S. and B.M. Kemp. 2011. Genetic and archaeological evidence for a former breeding population of Aleutian Cackling Goose (Branta hutchinsii leucopareia) on Adak Island, central Aleutians, Alaska. Canadian Journal of Zoology 89: 732-743.

    **Crockford, S.J. and G. Frederick 2011. Neoglacial sea ice and life history flexibility in ringed and fur seals. pg.65-91 in T. Braje and R. Torrey, eds. Human Impacts on Seals, Sea Lions, and Sea Otters: Integrating Archaeology and Ecology in the Northeast Pacific. U. California Press, LA.

    *Baichtal, J.F. and Crockford, S.J. 2011. Possibility of kelp during the LGM in SE Alaska and implications for marine mammals. Poster 5-12, 19th Conference on the Biology of Marine Mammals, Tampa, FL. Nov. 28-Dec.2.

    **Crockford, S.J. 2008. Be careful what you ask for: archaeozoological evidence of mid-Holocene climate change in the Bering Sea and implications for the origins of Arctic Thule. Pp. 113-131 in G. Clark, F. Leach and S. O’Connor (eds.), Islands of Inquiry: Colonisation, Seafaring and the Archaeology of Maritime Landscapes. Terra Australis 29 ANU E Press, Canberra.

    **Crockford, S. and Frederick, G. 2007. Sea ice expansion in the Bering Sea during the Neoglacial: evidence from archaeozoology. The Holocene 17(6):699-706.

    *Crockford, S.J., Frederick, G. & Wigen, R. 2002. The Cape Flattery fur seal: An extinct species of Callorhinus in the eastern north Pacific? Canadian Journal of Archaeology 26(3):152-174.

    Martinsson-Wallin, H. & Crockford, S.J. 2001. Early human settlement of Rapa Nui (Easter Island). Asian Perspectives 40(2):244-278. (Includes an analysis of fish remains & a comprehensive list of modern Rapa Nui fishes).

    Crockford, S.J. 1997. Archaeological evidence of large northern bluefin tuna, Thunnus thynnus, in coastal waters of British Columbia and northern Washington. Fishery Bulletin 95:11-24.

    Domestication, speciation and evolution papers
    Crockford, S.J. and Kusmin, Y.V. 2012. Comments on Germonpré et al., Journal of Archaeological Science 36, 2009 “Fossil dogs and wolves from Palaeolithic sites in Belgium, the Ukraine and Russia: osteometry, ancient DNA and stable isotopes”, and Germonpré, Lázkičková-Galetová, and Sablin, Journal of Archaeological Science 39, 2012 “Palaeolithic dog skulls at the Gravettian Předmostí site, the Czech Republic.” Journal of Archaeological Science 39:2797-2801.

    **Crockford, S.J. 2012. Directionality in polar bear hybridization. Comment (May 1) to Hailer et al. 2012. “Nuclear genomic sequences reveal that polar bears are an old and distinct bear lineage.” Science 336:344-347. Follow link and click on “# comments” under the title

    **Crockford, S.J. 2012. Directionality in polar bear hybridization. Comment, with references (May 1) to Edwards et al. 2011. “Ancient hybridization and an Irish origin for the modern polar bear matriline.” Current Biology 21:1251-1258. to view comments, go through the host website, and find the paper at the Current Biology website.

    Ovodov, N.D., Crockford, S.J., Kuzmin, Y.V., Higham, T.F.G., Hodgins, G.W.L. and van der Plicht, J.. 2011. A 33,000 year old incipient dog from the Altai Mountains of Siberia: Evidence of the earliest domestication disrupted by the Last Glacial Maximum. PLoS One 10.1371/journal.pone.0022821.

    Crockford, S.J. 2009. Evolutionary roots of iodine and thyroid hormones in cell-cell signaling. Integrative and Comparative Biology 49:155-166.

    **Crockford, S.J. 2006. Rhythms of Life: Thyroid Hormone and the Origin of Species. Trafford, Victoria [for a general audience, polar bear evolution discussed];

    **Crockford, S.J. 2004. Animal Domestication and Vertebrate Speciation: A Paradigm for the Origin of Species. Ph.D. dissertation, University of Victoria (Canada), Interdisciplinary Studies. [filed at the National Library under Zoology; polar bear evolution discussed] Pdf available, just ask.

    **Crockford, S.J. 2003. Thyroid rhythm phenotypes and hominid evolution: a new paradigm implicates pulsatile hormone secretion in speciation and adaptation changes. International Journal of Comparative Biochemistry and Physiology, Part A Vol. 35 (#1, May issue):105-129. [an invited submission; polar bear evolution discussed]

    **Crockford, S.J. 2002. Thyroid hormone in Neandertal evolution: A natural or pathological role? Geographical Review 92(1):73-88. [an invited commentary]

    **Crockford, S.J. 2002. Animal domestication and heterochronic speciation: the role of thyroid hormone. pg. 122-153. In: N. Minugh-Purvis & K. McNamara (eds.) Human Evolution Through Developmental Change. Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore. [polar bear evolution discussed].

    Crockford, S.J. 2000. Dog evolution: a role for thyroid hormone in domestication changes. pg. 11-20. In: S. Crockford (ed.), Dogs Through Time: An Archaeological Perspective. Archaeopress S889, Oxford.

    Crockford, S. J. 2000. A commentary on dog evolution: regional variation, breed development and hybridization with wolves. pg. 295-312. In: S. Crockford (ed.), Dogs Through Time: An Archaeological Perspective. Archaeopress S889, Oxford.

    Northwest Coast dog studies
    Crockford, S.J., Moss, M.L., and Baichtal, J.F. 2012. Pre-contact dogs from the Prince of Wales archipelago, Alaska. Alaska Journal of Anthropology 9(1):49-64.

    Crockford, S.J., 2005. Breeds of native dogs in North America before the arrival of European dogs. Proceedings of the World Small Animal Veterinary Congress, Mexico City. [invited lecture] available online at:

    Koop, B.F., Burbidge, M., Byun, A., Rink, U, & Crockford, S.J. 2000. Ancient DNA evidence of a separate origin for North American indigenous dogs. pg. 271-285. In: S. Crockford (ed.), Dogs Through Time: An Archaeological Perspective. British Archaeological Reports (B.A.R.), Archaeopress S889, Oxford. (collaborative research with Univ. of Victoria (Ben Koop, Biology) & National Science & Engineering Research Council, Canada (NSERC) [first published analysis of ancient dog DNA]

    Crockford, S.J. 1997. Osteometry of Makah and Coast Salish Dogs. Archaeology Press, Publication 22, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, B.C.
    [A comprehensive analysis of cranial & postcranial remains of adult dogs from 20 coastal archaeological sites]

    Crockford, S.J. & Pye, C.J. 1997. Forensic reconstruction of prehistoric dogs from the Northwest Coast. Canadian Journal of Archaeology 21(2):149-153 [the story of the wool dog/village dog sketches done by RCMP forensic artist CJ Pye]

    Seal and sea lion diet studies
    Tollit, D.J., Schulze, A., Trites, A.W., Olesiuk, P., Crockford, S.J., Gelatt, T., Ream, R. & Miller, K. 2009. Development and application of DNA techniques for validating and improving pinniped diet estimates based on conventional scat analysis. Ecological Applications 19(4):889-905. [This study compares my bone ID of prey species to DNA analysis]

    Olesiuk, P.F., Bigg, M.A., Ellis, G.M., Crockford, S.J. & Wigen, R.J. 1990. An assessment of the feeding habits of harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) in the Strait of Georgia, British Columbia, based on scat analysis. Canadian Technical Reports on Fisheries & Aquatic Science. 1730.


    You forgot already even though it was only 8 months ago you got punched in the mouth with it…., repeatedly as you made about 8 more comment in the thread.

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