Hurricane Inflation

For government work, 50 MPH is the new 130 MPH.

http://wxug.us/25b6l

Marine Buoy Forecast | Weather Underground

The difference between the hype and the reality is stunning.

Hurricane Irma: Winds and waves pounding Lower Keys | FL Keys News

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71 Responses to Hurricane Inflation

  1. Latitude says:

    Got a friend riding around and posting live video in Islamorada right now…
    Boats are still on trailers, house trailers are still sitting there, trees are still up, telephone poles are still up with all their wiring…and everyone’s yard furniture is piled up on the side of the road..
    …perfect time to start a yard maintenance business

    • Eric Simpson says:

      Yup. Irma was a dud.

      Touted as “the worst hurricane of all time” it came ashore at ~ Fort Myers as a weak Category 3, if that, and then quickly dissipated into what appeared to be little more than a windy storm.

      How many died? None? Well, here they say 3. And those 3 deaths were from .. auto accidents. Come on. It was effectively zero.

      Zero deaths, and it was “the greatest hurricane of all time.” A joke. Tony just tweeted today on how the 1931 Belize hurricane killed 1000, or 5% of the population. And Tony’s other posts has shown the thousands upon thousands killed in many other hurricanes, but, um, Irma and Harvey are the greatest? Laughable.

  2. Bob G says:

    Every day they pound into you that this huge storm has winds of 185 MPH. They never mention that they surveyed the whole storm which is the size of Texas and they found one sliver of the storm that has 185 mph. The average wind for the whole storm might be half that. With the exception of the keys, I don’t think the damage this storm does will be worthy of the hype.

    • Stewart Pid says:

      I really like this site for seeing what the stations say vs where the high wind speed is near the eye … as Bob sez only a sliver of the storm is at Cat 3 or Cat 4.
      https://www.windy.com/?24.843,-81.568,10

    • Andy DC says:

      The unpredicted storm surge from the extratropical storm of March 1993 was far worse along the Florida Gulf Coast than Irma has been.

    • Andy says:

      The largest winds are always in the eastern part of the eyewall. Known fact. The storm does have winds measured there and then it goes lower as you move out, that’s completely normal, not sure why you would call it a sliver. This is well known science over 100 years, you need to read up.

      NHC shows the range of tropical storm sized winds as well as hurricane force in all it’s predictions.

      Andy

  3. R. Shearer says:

    I hope that the overhype turns out to be just that as usual. They cool the past, change the metrics and definitions all to support an agenda, increase revenue, etc.

    https://youtu.be/2G56xuuYcrM

    • Adamant de-Nye-er says:

      Consider also that politicians always get blamed when they don’t push for early evacuation. A lesson “learned” from Katrina and Ike. Even as recently as Harvey, the mayor of Houston is getting criticism (although not nearly as much as if he was caucasian and a Republican), for telling people to shelter in place — worst advice possible for a flood. Another thing they get out of early evacuations is fast track on disaster relief funds. Expect politicians at all levels to be more hyper about any weather event. No one in politics or the media is expecting people to evaluate their personal situations rationally, and take responsibility for their own actions.

      • Colorado Wellington says:

        The media pushes the global warming disaster narrative. Most politicians do the same, besides covering their asses and promising free stuff:

        “Why, send yours truly to Capitol Hill, and I’11 ship the swag home in boxcar lots. You’ll be paving the roads with bacon around here when I get done shoveling out the pork barrel. There’ll be government jobs for your dog. Leave your garden hose running for fifteen minutes, and I’11 have the Department of Transportation build an eight-lane suspension bridge across the puddle. Show me a wet basement, and 111 get you a naval base and make your Roto-Rooter man an Admiral of the Fleet. There’ll be farm subsidies for every geranium you’ve got in a pot, defense contracts for Junior’s spitballs and free day care for Sister’s dolls. You’ll get unemployment for the sixteen hours every day when you’re not at your job, full disability benefits if you have to get up in the night to take a leak, and Social Security checks will come in the mail not just when you retire at sixty-five but when you retire each night to bed. Taxes? Hell, I’ll have the government go around every week putting money back in your paycheck, and I’ll make the IRS hire chimpanzees from the zoo to audit your tax returns. Vote for me, folks, and you’ll be farting through silk.”

        —PJ O’Rourke, Parliament of Whores

      • Colorado Wellington says:

        The media pushes the global warming disaster narrative. Most politicians do the same, besides covering their asses and promising free stuff:

        “Why, send yours truly to Capitol Hill, and I’ll ship the swag home in boxcar lots. You’ll be paving the roads with bacon around here when I get done shoveling out the pork barrel. There’ll be government jobs for your dog. Leave your garden hose running for fifteen minutes, and I’ll have the Department of Transportation build an eight-lane suspension bridge across the puddle. Show me a wet basement, and I’ll get you a naval base and make your Roto-Rooter man an Admiral of the Fleet. There’ll be farm subsidies for every geranium you’ve got in a pot, defense contracts for Junior’s spitballs and free day care for Sister’s dolls. You’ll get unemployment for the sixteen hours every day when you’re not at your job, full disability benefits if you have to get up in the night to take a leak, and Social Security checks will come in the mail not just when you retire at sixty-five but when you retire each night to bed. Taxes? Hell, I’ll have the government go around every week putting money back in your paycheck, and I’ll make the IRS hire chimpanzees from the zoo to audit your tax returns. Vote for me, folks, and you’ll be farting through silk.”

        —PJ O’Rourke, Parliament of Whores

    • arn says:

      They will simply turn category 3 hurricanes into hurricane 5 hurricanes.

      • R. Shearer says:

        Yes, via adjustments or anomalies.

        • arn says:

          Exactly-
          this has happened when Fukushima blew up.
          They simply raised radiation standards in the USA
          and they changed testing standards for seafood.

          That’s what they did with the unemployment rate.
          While more than 100 mio working age americans do not work the official unemployment rate is about 5%.
          (according to former(80ies) government standards it is 25%+).

          And you can be sure that they will missuse the lack of hurricanes in the past decade people
          to make people nowadays feel that a few low category hurricanes
          (which are still a lot below average=very calm)
          are an absolute life threatening extreme because they know that most people have a really bad long term memorie brain.

  4. James Anderson says:

    Been watching wind speeds in Florida for the past few hours. This hype is BS.

    Current wind speeds as of 1:PM 9-10-2017

    http://www.usairnet.com/weather/maps/current/florida/wind-speed/

  5. RAH says:

    It’s OFFICIAL folks the Weather Channel has just announced that the NWS has downgraded Irma to a CAT 3. LOL! This storm was a CAT 3 hours ago!

  6. RAH says:

    Buoy observations. 100s of them. Wind speeds given in kts.
    http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at1

    Link to conversion table. kts to mph and kts to kmp.
    http://www.disastercenter.com/convert.htm

    This storm may not even be a major hurricane anymore. It is still a nasty monster from it’s sheer size and inertia. But it is NOT the house flattening beast we feared it would be.

  7. Brian D says:

    Watching WeatherNation on Dish, and they have a crew on Marco Island. N eye wall coming through and there is heavy rain, but winds don’t look anything as bad as it should be. In studio using data from VIPIR radar, and 100 mph has been top speed so far along N and E sides in the last hour. High winds are in a very, very narrow band. This is Cat 2 at worst.

  8. Douglas Hoyt says:

    Weather Channel guy said he was 12 miles away from the eye wall and wind speed was 36 mph.

  9. Colorado Wellington says:

    At least some Florida authorities follow solid science in response to Irma. Pasco County Sheriff Chris Nocco tweeted:

    To clarify, DO NOT shoot weapons @ #Irma. You won’t make it turn around & it will have very dangerous side effects …

    H/T Bradenton Herald

  10. Rob says:

    Yeah, the hype vs reality is pretty crazy yet expected in today’s “new normal” of pushing the fear mongering and agenda to absurd levels.

    The worst part is all the super hype does is probably make people in the future be skeptical when they see/hear the same people say the same things and that time it may actually live up to the hype. I understand wanting to be diligent in getting people safe but acting like something is the worst storm ever and some apocalyptic event when it isn’t is not the way to go about it.

    Regardless of how things have happened, it is good that it hasn’t lived up to the massive hype.

    • arn says:

      That”s really the great danger
      -that crying Wolf all the time and everyday will make people completely deaf to warnings and when the real wolf then appears noone will listen and many will die

      ((and the AGW cult is speculating on this scenario hoping that the (colleteral)damage will be so huge that noone dares to question their Hurricane-was-made-by-AGW bullshit.))

  11. James Anderson says:

    Naples reported 130 MPH guest. LMFAO. What BS.

  12. Brian D says:

    After this one, Jose next?
    GFS shows Jose lingering in the Atlantic, then possibly coming into the East coast as a major hurricane.

  13. arn says:

    The pussyfication
    of america has already reached the Stroms.
    Nowadays even the former fierce and everything destroying category 5 hurricanes are barely more than a tempest in a teapot which cannot even impress the pink haired artsy fartsy college ladyboys.
    Maybe in 1 or 2 years(in case this trend goes on) we will need safe zones for hurricanes and some activists to empower them.

    Or maybe this is just the usual everything what can be used to indoctrinate& create will be turned instantly into the “worst/hottest etc on record/ever caused by co2/AGW”(TM) bullshit of shameless journalists and scientists
    who have been moraly completely corrupted at college by their profs.

    Sad thing-
    many people in Florida who wittness the storm still will not start to ask themselves why the strength of the storm was so much weaker than the fake news media predicted.
    But some will and those will never ever return to the MSM

    PS-
    i”ve been several times in South France(coast) and when the Mistral gets really strong it will blow the cap from your had within three seconds.
    The guy in the vid was able to keep the cap on his head for almost a minute.
    (and a strong Mistral is nothing compared to a hurricane)

    PPS-
    i’m sorry for the AGW cult.
    They got so desperate these days that have to declare every run of the mill hurricane who cannot reach windspeeds of a sneezer as the ultimate
    armageddon.

    • Andy says:

      “i’m sorry for the AGW cult.
      They got so desperate these days that have to declare every run of the mill hurricane who cannot reach windspeeds of a sneezer as the ultimate
      armageddon.”

      Obviously not in it’s path and cozy somewhere else with a nice dry keyboard?

      It’s one of the biggest storms in the Atlantic ever. If you had been in the Leeward isles a few days back would you be writing the same words here? I think not. Your perception is warped by media and US bias.

      Not an insult, just stating fact of perceptions for people in the US or elsewhere watching safely from a distance.

      Andy

  14. James Anderson says:

    Current Reported wind gusts
    Location in Florida ICAO Timestamp Wind Gust
    PENSACOLA NAS KNPA 2:56 PM CDST 35 mph
    ORLANDO HERN APRT KORL 4:38 PM EDST 26 mph
    HURLBURT FIELD KHRT 3:56 PM EDST 33 mph
    KEYSTONE HEIGHTS K42J 4:35 PM EDST 20 mph
    PETER O KNIGHT A/P KTPF 4:35 PM EDST 38 mph
    PERRY FOLEY ARPT K40J 4:35 PM EDST 26 mph
    PLANT CITY MUNI A/P KPCM 4:35 PM EDST 38 mph
    FORT LAUDERDALE EXEC KFXE 4:32 PM EDST 63 mph
    OKEECHOBEE CNTY A/P KOBE 4:35 PM EDST 36 mph
    FORT LAUDERDALE INTL KFLL 3:53 PM EDST
    FERNANDINA BEACH KFHB 4:35 PM EDST
    NAPLES KAPF 4:22 PM EDST
    BROOKSVILLE KBKV 4:39 PM EDST 29 mph
    CRYSTAL RIVER A/P KCGC 4:35 PM EDST 23 mph
    GAINESVILLE KGNV 4:42 PM EDST 29 mph
    DESTIN KDTS 3:02 PM CDST 30 mph
    FORT PIERCE KFPR 4:35 PM EDST 64 mph
    WINTER HAVEN KGIF 4:42 PM EDST 44 mph
    OCALA MUNICIPAL KOCF 2:51 PM EDST 23 mph
    MAC DILL AFB KMCF 4:32 PM EDST 38 mph
    CRAIG MUNICIPAL ARPT KCRG 4:19 PM EDST 30 mph
    PANAMA CITY KECP 2:53 PM CDST 33 mph
    SAINT PETERSBURG KSPG 4:42 PM EDST 56 mph
    ORLANDO INTL KMCO 4:44 PM EDST 30 mph
    ST PETERSBURG KPIE 4:38 PM EDST 47 mph
    CRESTVIEW KCEW 2:53 PM CDST 30 mph
    FT MYERS PAGE FLD KFMY 4:30 PM EDST 68 mph
    QUINCY K2J9 4:35 PM EDST
    WEST PALM BEACH KPBI 4:21 PM EDST 67 mph
    FT MYERS SW APT KRSW 4:20 PM EDST 75 mph
    PENSACOLA RGNL ARPT KPNS 2:53 PM CDST 21 mph
    MARIANNA KMAI 3:37 PM CDST
    EGLIN AFB KVPS 3:16 PM CDST 35 mph
    POMPANO BEACH KPMP 4:39 PM EDST 86 mph
    DAYTONA BEACH KDAB 4:32 PM EDST 45 mph
    OPA LOCKA ARPT KOPF 4:30 PM EDST 68 mph
    CROSS CITY KCTY 4:35 PM EDST 31 mph
    MILTON/WHITING FIELD KNDZ 3:32 PM CDST 33 mph
    PUNTA GORDA KPGD 4:14 PM EDST 64 mph
    ST AUGUSTINE KSGJ 4:44 PM EDST 44 mph
    TAMPA INTERNATIONAL KTPA 4:19 PM EDST 35 mph
    DUKE FIELD – EGLIN AUX KEGI 3:34 PM CDST 24 mph
    TAMIAMI ARPT KTMB 3:53 PM EDST
    MELBOURNE KMLB 3:53 PM EDST
    TAMPA/VANDENBURG KVDF 4:35 PM EDST 29 mph
    MARATHON KEY ARPT KMTH 3:53 PM EDST
    MIAMI KMIA 3:53 PM EDST
    VERO BEACH KVRB 4:43 PM EDST
    JACKSONVILLE INTL KJAX 4:04 PM EDST 33 mph
    KISSIMMEE KISM 4:10 PM EDST 32 mph
    THE VILLAGES KVVG 4:30 PM EDST 13 mph
    MILTON NAS KNSE 3:29 PM CDST 26 mph
    SARASOTA-BRADENTON KSRQ 4:35 PM EDST 45 mph
    APALACHICOLA KAAF 3:53 PM EDST 30 mph
    CAPE KENNEDY AIR FORCE STATION KXMR 4:44 PM EDST 44 mph
    JACKSONVILLE NAS KNIP 4:34 PM EDST 31 mph
    LEESBURG KLEE 4:40 PM EDST 32 mph
    SANFORD KSFB 4:41 PM EDST 43 mph
    MAYPORT NAS KNRB 4:38 PM EDST 47 mph
    TALLAHASSEE KTLH 3:53 PM EDST 28 mph
    TYNDALL AFB KPAM 3:01 PM CDST 29 mph

  15. Brian D says:

    WeatherNation is reporting wind gusts so far with Irma as of 4pm EDT:
    Naples 142mph
    Marco Island 130mph
    Lely 122mph
    Big Pine Key 120mph
    Miami 94mph
    Key West 91mph

    That would mean it was barely Cat 3 with sustained winds at the Marco Island landfall. Gusts typically run 15-25mph more than sustained winds.

    • Brian D says:

      In the Keys, I don’t think there was any station active in the midst of the N eye wall, where it seems the worst wind was located. The Cuba landfall messed this storm center up enough, along with the dry air, and some shear along its northward journey to keep this thing from being much worse.

    • David A says:

      Zero of those were ground based.

  16. Anon says:

    The SCIENCE is all “explained” here in the WaPo:

    The science behind the U.S.’s strange hurricane ‘drought’ — and its sudden end.

    Since 2005, though, we’ve experienced no major U.S. landfalls until Harvey this year. All of a sudden, it feels like we’re living in an Atlantic bowling alley once again.

    “The drought: I guess it has in fact come to an end with Harvey,” said Kossin by email. “If Irma makes landfall as a major hurricane, then all the more so.

    For Vecchi, a lot of it is definitional. One plausible explanation for the hurricane “drought,” he said, could be that “we’re so focused on the Saffir-Simpson scale and this arbitrary difference between a Category 2 and a Category 3 at landfall, that we’re missing the bigger picture, and nothing has changed.”

    Hurricane scientists Phil Klotzbach and Brian McNoldy, writing at Capital Weather Gang, have noted in the last decade a kind of hurricane goalkeeper has set up over the eastern United States in the form of a low pressure area that steers storms away from us.

    “Pollution over the Atlantic increased for a few decades and then decreased after the Clean Air Acts and Amendments in the 1970s,”

    “A debate continues about why the 1970s and 80s were relatively quiet in the Atlantic,” said MIT hurricane researcher Kerry Emanuel. “Some believe that it was the consequence of a natural climate oscillation called the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), while others, including me, think is was mostly a consequence of sulfate aerosol pollution.”

    On top of all that is the notion of a so-called Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation — a swing toward and away from more hurricane conducive conditions in the Atlantic, thanks to shifts in large scale ocean currents and their effect on Atlantic Ocean temperatures.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/09/07/the-science-behind-the-u-s-s-strange-hurricane-drought-and-its-sudden-end/?utm_term=.18015887afb2

    I think I sprained my brain reading that. It sounds like a group of HUGELY CONFUSED people with PhDs. If this is the state of meteorology, I can’t imagine what climate science looks like, ouiji boards and dart boards I imagine.

  17. Psalmon says:

    Irma just passed Naples in what was actually really good television on The Weather Channel.

    Only a small fraction of people realized that somehow reporters could report live from the Eyewall of Irma, but if you did not evacuate Naples, you would most certainly be killed.

    The NOAA station at the Naples Pier, on the Gulf, just adjacent to the Airport measured peak gusts of 65 knots and lowest pressure of 940mb.

    Interestingly during the broadcast, TWC reported that the local NOAA station was off line and not reporting data. In reality it posted data every 6 minutes reliably and complete refuted their claims of 130mph winds (which left every tree still standing and reporters on the ground in one piece).

    The most interesting thing to watch was the sea retreating and then returning 7.5 feet in just one hour, but the 15 foot storm surge has yet to show up. It doesn’t matter. Everyone who stayed in Naples is dead and the city is completely demolished.

    Here’s the link to the data. Try to post screen shot below if it will. Link is good to see the eyewall pass trace for another 27 hours to 8pm monday.
    https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=8725110

  18. Gail Combs says:

    It occurs to me that all the hysteria had a very very good affect— If you were a member of the global elite.

    Trump had unleashed US Energy forcing gas prices and LNG prices down. Irma and Harvey, especially with all the evacuations and sitting on highways and moving emergency vehicles used up a LOT of that excess fuel so President Trump does not look as good to the average voter as we head into the 2018 election season.

    Yes, I know I am cynical.

    • gator69 says:

      Have some lentil soup, you’ll feel better.

      • Gail Combs says:

        Actually I just finished homemade tomato with sausage soup. The tomatoes, peppers, basil and oregano were out of the garden.

        Next up I am going to make some BBQ sauce with the tomatoes and jalapenos from the garden and local honey and vinegar to go with the goat ribs in the freezer…. It is supposed to make a good tenderizer for Old Goat.

        • gator69 says:

          What time is dinner?

        • RAH says:

          Around 1 pm my neighbor Steve brought over a container of homemade spaghetti sauce he made yesterday. Previous plans for dinner went out the window. Everything in that sauce except the meat came out of their garden. I sent him back with two big hunks of the Applesauce cake Sherry made yesterday. Then we wasted no time warming up the sauce, boiling the spaghetti and making a toss salad and garlic bread and gorging ourselves. That was followed by lounging watching and making fun of the Weather Channel reporters down in Florida. Before long I was down for the count.

    • Andy says:

      No, just not thinking it through.

      Excess fuel will not be used up by cars sitting on highways, they use little fuel. Also all those cars that cannot go anywhere now they are marooned also, or flooded. We’d need to see how fuel consumption goes down over this hurricane and also Harvey.

      They made need excess fuel for boats though. Lots of things to think about. Electricity out, people switching to oil?

      I think you have thought a thought to far in this case just to paint the global elite in a bad light Gail ! :) Tinfoil hat, or should I say tin foil hat stand with 10 tin foil hats on it, all saying MADA ( Make America Dry Again) on it

      And no, that is not a call for Donald to bring back prohibition !

      Andy

  19. Gail Combs says:

    Sundance, who is in southern Florida and part of the emergency personnel reports: 5:00pm Hurricane Irma Advisory – Drops to Cat2 Strength…

  20. Steve Case says:

    All of that aside and off topic – Just got done watching CBS 60 Minutes and Leslie whatsherface is on the Arctic ice where she remarks that the warmest day up there has been below zero and then she yammers through the rest of the segment telling us several times that the ice is melting.

  21. dp says:

    I’ve been looking at Wunderground station data all day long after seeing signs of news and weather agency hyperbole as the cone zeroed in on Florida. Clearly there is a significant disconnect between what the official agencies and news media report as wind speed and actual surface wind speeds as captured on dozens of amateur weather stations. Then I saw a news headline revealing that Harvey and Irma costs are estimated at $290B. And then I remembered the admonition of never letting a good catastrophe to go unexploited. And now I know why these agencies do not use soft winter pastels when painting the eye and swirling bands of the hurricane in favor of angry and frightening reds. They’re grooming us to accept without question the unrealistic painting of this as the storm of the epoch.

    • Andy says:

      “and actual surface wind speeds as captured on dozens of amateur weather stations.”

      Can you post some?

      Andy

      • dp says:

        Go to Wunderground and find weather stations in Florida. Open each station and look at the logged data for the day Irma made land fall. Observe the wind speed, temperation/dew point, wind speed and direction, and barometric pressure. Any station is capable of errors but taken as a population you will see replication. And you will realize this storm was over blown in the news. The wind speed at the surface (these systems are installed at people’s homes, business, and school) will show you the hyperbole shared by news and official climate agencies.

  22. Andy says:

    That bloke with his camera at the southernmost point is before Irma hit. At that point it was just getting off Cuba

    This is more like it, a bit later

    https://twitter.com/SimonStormRider/status/906843778824187904

    Nearer to 130 than 50, probably more like 110-115 I think.

    US was lucky, Irma dipped down and lost a lot of strength running up against Cuba and then the swing was late so instead of Cat 4/5 at Miami got a Cat 3/4 at the west coast.

    As hurricanes are no indication at all of AGW not sure why Tony feels the need to downplay them, as if they were an indication of AGW. Just marvel at them adding to the science pot and stats.

    Andy

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