Understanding Climate Math

Climate experts tell us that Arctic sea ice extent (which has been increasing for six months and is right about what it always is this time of year) is the lowest in 12,000 years.

Polar ice is lost at sea | Grist

Apparently the current 14 million km² is less than 0 km² from 6,000 years ago.

Less Ice In Arctic Ocean 6000-7000 Years Ago — ScienceDaily

I prepared a reference chart to help understand this tricky climate math.

Ocean and Ice Services | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut

This may seem difficult for a layman to understand, but it requires a level of spiritual understanding only available to Democrats – whose top climate prophet says the Arctic will be ice free in a few weeks.

The Argus-Press – Google News Archive Search

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20 Responses to Understanding Climate Math

  1. arn says:

    I am always amazed how people who can not even interpret modern ice extent satellite data of the past 12 years in a correct way
    are able to know the exact ice extent of the past 12000 years.

    I wonder from which quran Holthaus got his data from
    and i”d really like to see his proove why the sea ice extent 12.000 years ago was lower than the one 11999 years ago.
    And i really love it how,by some incredible coiincidence, round numbers
    are always the climax/tipping point of whatever.
    12.000 years ago
    400ppm co2 will kill our planet((noone ever cares to explain why 400 is so much more dangerous than 397))

    I guess the millenium bug infected science 18 years ago.

  2. Ari Saltiel says:

    The Grist article is based on this image. Whats the interpretation of this graph?

    • tonyheller says:

      Very clever starting in 1979!

      • Ari Saltiel says:

        Understood. So the above graph is the total sea ice- not just the arctic? I would say the article is maybe a bit misleading (maybe it isnt 12,000 years ) but not totally wrong. Showing the current sea ice in the arctic (only) ,which is about the same as previous years, isn’t really the way to debunk their claim. The rest IS good evidence against them. When ice starts to climb in the coming years they will have no ammunition left anyway .

        • tonyheller says:

          Antarctic sea ice extent has been trending upwards since 1979.

          • Andy says:

            Been some interesting highs and lows since 2010, from a large trend upwards to now downwards. Could be up again soon.

            Not sure I have seen an explanation for this change anywhere.


          • AndyG55 says:

            The last two years of lower Antarctic sea ice extent was from the large El Nino sending a plume of warmer water to the south.

            Looks like it might have already bottomed out for this year, heading back up.

        • AndyG55 says:

          In the Arctic, 1979 was a short period of EXTREME HIGH sea ice, almost as high in extent as the LIA.

          It was also the very lowest point on the AMO.

          The real truth is that the current Arctic sea ice level, although down somewhat from that extreme of late 1970’s is actually GREATER than what it has been for 90-95% of the Holocene.

          As you say Ari, it will be very interesting watching the antics of the Arctic Sea Ice bed-wetters over the next several years, now that the AMO is starting to head back downwards. :-)

          • Andy says:

            “In the Arctic, 1979 was a short period of EXTREME HIGH sea ice, almost as high in extent as the LIA.”



          • AndyG55 says:

            What do you mean, “Why”

            WHY are you so IGNORNANT !

            You have been shown the Icelandic sea ice index often enough.

            Look at any real temperature graph from the region.

            If you want to remain WILFULLY IGNORANT, that is your choice.

    • Andy says:

      That graph is a strange one to use for that article as it is mainly talking about Arctic sea ice loss and that graph is global ice amount which is mainly dependent on the amount in the Antarctic, hence the shape. When the Arctic is in winter the ice extent on most sides constrained by land, so that also means Antarctic values are more weighted even than just the huge amount of ice down there that melts and forms down there.

      He should have used Arctic only graph if he mainly wanted to talk about the Arctic change since 1979.


      • AndyG55 says:

        Yep, use a graph of the natural, and highly beneficial drop from the EXTREME of the late 1970’s, as MINDLESS propaganda.

        Get the GULLIBLE TWITS like little-andy all hot and bothered.

        • Andy DC says:

          Since I am also an Andy, I want to concur that AndyG55 is absolutely correct. The late 1970’s were an extremely cold period, the culmination of a 40 year cooling period from 1940 to 1980. In the US, the 3 winters 1977 through 1979 were the 3 coldest consecutive winters in US history. To illustrate just how cold it was, Waterloo, Iowa has a weather record going well back into the 1800’s. Their 3 coldest Januaries on record were 1977, 1978 and 1979.

          • Andy says:

            A trio of Andy’s !

            Annual Arctic sea ice was higher in 1982 than 1979. 1983 also had a lot of ice.


          • AndyG55 says:

            Coldest period in NH since well before 1900.

            Up there with the FREEZING EXTREMES OF the LIA.

            Why do you continue to be wilfully ignorant about these things???

            Why do you want to live in Siberia, little-andy?

            Except I bet you don’t. I bet you choose to live somewhere warmer, with lots of fossil fuel heating during winter.

  3. dennisambler says:

    Pity Holthaus was unable to tell Amundsen:
    https://archive.org/details/cu31924092506652 or http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/IPY/ipy_009_pdf/G6501903A71908v1.pdf

    “Of large Polar ice we saw absolutely nothing. Between the ice and the land, on either side, there were large and perfectly clear channels, through which we passed easily and unimpeded.

    The entire accumulation of ice was not very extensive. We were soon out again in open water. Outside the promontories, some pieces of ice had accumulated; otherwise the sea was free from ice.The water to the south was open, the impenetrable wall of ice was not there.”

    Complete transits have been made by 219 different vessels from 1903. Full list here:

    133 ships have reached the North Pole since 1977: https://www.spri.cam.ac.uk/resources/infosheets/northpoleships.pdf

    • AndyG55 says:

      Larsen sailed the St Roch, a small wooden ship with a small engine , down the strait next to Banks Island in 1944.

      I can find no record of anyone using that route ever since.

      Certainly it has been impassable over the last few years I’ve been watching.

      Boats are sneaking around the southern route through Cambridge Bay.

      Satellite images of where the sea ice is must make things so much easier.

  4. wert says:

    OK. I understand the Arctic is superhot. This is a scientific fact that should not be denied.

    In any case, I wish that people who are concerned on ocean heat content, and sea ice extent, etc, to watch Vegard Ulvang (an athlete hero) try to cross-country ski where Roald Amundsen (the polar explorer hero) navigated using a wooden boat.

    It might help to realise how freaking not hot the Arctic is.


    • R. Shearer says:

      I wouldn’t want to eat soup at the so-called superhot Arctic temps of -10 to -20C. It would be crunchy (might break a tooth) and it might stick to your lips and tongue causing frostbite instead of warming them.

  5. frederik wisse says:

    Prophets of doom like Hansen and Holthaus are not capable to retreat from their advocacy of the recent 30 years . Their paradigm must remain untouched even facing total adverse symptoms in the present weather . Their science is claimed to be settled and who are we to doubt their wellfunded alarmism ?This authoritarian attitude has become the hallmark of the democratic party in the usa and as we recently observed to their peril .
    Luckily we are capable to overcome notwithstanding reactionary actions of certain greens , socialists and other socalled progressives , dedicated to derail our society .
    Tony , thank you for holding nearly daily a mirror in front their eyes illustrating a reality that the true-cagw believers donot want to see . Sorry to say , but their belief
    is modern state-of-the-art payganism . Science settled ? Expect big paradigm changes
    in climate , cosmology , physics , chemics and pharmaceutics in the near future .
    History excluded , of course , the tampering here is even below moral standards .

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