Arctic Meltdown Update

Arctic sea ice volume is about to pass 2003 and move to third highest in the DMI record.  This should happen on Saturday.

Spreadsheet    Data

Yesterday was the peak melt day of the season so far. The only other year when the peak melt occurred in July was 2003. Normally it occurs in June.

Peak melt rates have declined over the past 15 years, with this year being the fourth lowest on record (so far.)

Spreadsheet    Data

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24 Responses to Arctic Meltdown Update

  1. Susan says:

    Tony, could you please comment on National Geographic magazine. They are now billing themselves as the authority on the consensus for human caused climate change. Every issue, every article. Lots of people still look to them for the truth of what is happening in the world.

    • Gator says:

      An authority on nothing! That’s a new approach.

    • tonyheller says:

      In 1967, National Geographic said glaciers advance and retreat in conjunction with sunspot cycles. But that was before there was money to be made lying about CO2.

    • Gerald Machnee says:

      I quit NG a few years ago because of the climate nonsense. I had some hope the new owner would change the nonsense, but so far I have not seen any change. Maybe he does not read it or has not been told.

  2. Steven Fraser says:

    Nice new charts, Tony!

    Some other numbers for DMI Sea Ice volume for July 4:

    2018 has risen to 112.33% of the 16-year average for the date, and 114.56% of the DMI-charted 2004-2013 average, moving higher above the 1-sigma line.

    2018, 2014 and 2003 are about to change relative positions over the next few days, as 2003 is declining more rapidly than the other 2. More on that as the new 2018 values are reported.

    I wonder if its possible to get numeric representations for the DMI Greenland SMB somewhere, for correllation analysis.

    Stay tuned.

  3. Stewart Pid says:

    Somebody commented on Jim Hunt not posting after April and so I went and looked and indeed the site is dead. No one knows what is up ie Jim in poor health etc? I am just curious.
    Grif can go get stuffed & I am glad to see him gone.

  4. Andy DC says:

    The alarmist sea ice scam began with an obvious cherry pick (1979) as their starting date. That not so subtle cheating has served them well for 40 years. But now that the sea ice trend has been reversed, their only answer is to lie through their teeth. These are dangerous times for increasingly desperate men!

  5. Andy DC says:

    The sea ice scam began with an obvious cherry pick (1979) as their starting date, the highest sea ice levels since the Little Ice Age. That not so subtle cheating has served them well for 40 years. But now that the sea ice trend has been reversed, their only answer is to lie through their teeth.

  6. Dan Zielinski says:

    I’m no scientist but I enjoy the posts and commentary. On NSIDC site for Arctic ice extent, it uses smaller bands for interquartile and interdecile ranges instead of 2 standard deviations. If one uses the 2 STD, then ice extent within the band now and presumably, within a range of normal variability?

    Is it out of the ordinary that the default uses the smaller bands?

    Thank you!

    • spike55 says:

      And what is “the ordinary”

      If you use a short period from the extreme high levels of the mid/late 1970’s,
      then yes, its below “average”

      If however, you look at the longer term of the whole Holocene, you see that current levels are pretty close to the TOP of the range. In the top 10% of the last 10,000 years

      What you need to realise is that in the NH, the mid/late 1970s was the COLDEST period since the Little Ice Age.

  7. donald penman says:

    Arctic sea ice extent is now level with the ten year maximum and still rising ( U.S. NIC) but I can’t show this chart because someone is messing about with invalid certificate messages. The forecast that Arctic sea ice extent will increase during this Solar Minimum due to low solar insolation is still looking good then.

  8. Steven Fraser says:

    Update on DMI Sea Ice volume numbers:

    The last 10 days, DMI Sea Ice volume decline rate has increased to -410, so far this years high rate. 2003 reached its peak decline rate of -535 on July 5, and is now less than current, so the gap between this year and 2003 has widened to 156.

    2018 is currently at 111.60% of the 16-year average volume, and 113.78% of the DMI-charted 2004-2013 years, and sits right at the 1-sigma line, the top of the first standard deviation.

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