New Ice-Free Arctic Forecast

“We redistribute de facto the world’s wealth by climate policy,”

– Ottmar Edenhofer, IPCC Co-chair 2008-2015

Arctic sea ice melt slowed considerably yesterday, and I am now pushing my ice-free Arctic forecast out to October 29, at 11:59 am.

Arctic sea ice volume is fourth highest in the last 15 years.

Spreadsheet    Data

Ice extent is also well above the ten year mean.

sea_ice_only.jpg (997×719)

My forecast is extremely conservative compared to North America’s leading Arctic experts, who say the North Pole has been ice-free for ten years.

North Pole May Be Ice-Free for First Time This Summer

North Pole could be ice free in 2008 | New Scientist

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10 Responses to New Ice-Free Arctic Forecast

  1. Norilsk says:

    The sky is falling!

    At least here in Ontario, the new PC government scrapped the cap and trade program. They also cancelled the green energy projects that were early in the pipeline and one wind project that was under construction. And all the people said Amen!

  2. Psalmon says:

    Northwest Passage Marine Superhighway Update…

    The towns of Resolute at the north entrance and Cambridge Bay at the south, are both asking the Canadian Government for help controlling the onslaught of shipping this year.

  3. angech says:

    Wouldn’t it be great if it could only stay above the average all through summer. Don’t predict the darn stuff though, it always seems to go the other way. Will be cheering when and if it stays high.
    The warmists are busy stepping their predictions and excuses up at the moment.

  4. Brian D says:

    With a big ridge of high pressure forecast to dominate the basin for almost 2 weeks, the high being center more on the Russian side, the ice flow will bring most of the ice pack toward the western areas. Winds in the Canadian Archipelago will tend to be out of the north, keeping melt low. Will the NW ( or even the NE) passage be open this year? Could 2018 be as significant as 2012, except in reverse? Stay tuned!

  5. Steven Fraser says:

    DMI Sea Ice Volume stats for July 30:

    2018 is #4, at 115.64% of the 16-year average, and 117.84% of the DMI-graphed 2004-2013 10-year average. Both %s are up from yesterday.

    Decline since yesterday 5th lowest in the DMI data at -97, narrowing the gap with #1 2004 and #2 2014 (decline of -121 and -115 respectively), but #3 2003 had a very low decline of -46, so the gap with it widened. #5 2005 is creeping up to the 2018 value, and may rise above it depending on what happens the next few days.

    In the sliding 7-day melt rate, 2018 was 7th lowest.

    Of some other interest: the 1-sigma values for the 16-year and 10 year averages, both of which have been gradually declining, (meaning that the distribution of Sea Ice Volume values have been getting closer together) went positive today, which means that the values spread out a bit.

    Stay tuned!

  6. Gerald Machnee says:

    The research ship Amundsen (David Barber), seems to be avoiding the rotten ice near the north pole. it is near Iqualuit.

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