New Ice-Free Arctic Forecast

Arctic sea ice melt dropped to its lowest level since May 12 yesterday, and now the Arctic won’t be ice-free until July 20 of next year, 12:01 am.

Spreadsheet    Data

For the third day in a row, there has been almost no change in Arctic sea ice extent.

Index of /DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/images/2018/08_Aug/

I’m sad to report that the prophets have failed. The Arctic will not be ice-free in 2014 or 2018 as they promised.

The Argus-Press – Google News Archive Search

Gore: Polar ice cap may disappear by summer 2014

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77 Responses to New Ice-Free Arctic Forecast

  1. spike55 says:

    Has anyone seen an Arctic sea ice Death Spiral.

    They seem to have lost it. ;-)

    Can anyone here sea ice screaming ???

    Where is Wadhams? Seem there will be nearly 5 of them this year !!

    I wonder how many multiples of the UK that is ?? 20+ at a rough estimate.

    Unfortunately, the RECOVERY from the peak extent in the late 1970s seems to have stalled, and with the AMO turning and the sleepy sun, will almost certainly start to reverse.

    • spike55 says:

      oops..

      .. left a graph showing that in a few weeks, the Arctic would have been ice-free in mid April ;-)

    • AndyDC says:

      Looking at several current observations in the Canadian Arctic, temperatures are near 32 degrees with snow falling in many places. Looks like summer is already over there at this very early date. Plus all of that early snow should provide excellent reflection of whatever sunlight they are getting.

  2. Psalmon says:

    Every year a range of between 0.5 and 0.8 million cubic meters of ice survives the Arctic Summer. EVERY YEAR.

    Somehow the amount of multi year ice decreases. If you think about this, you realize that this multi year trend is impossible.

    Looking forward to all this surviving ice to magically disappear and be replaced by new “one year” ice.

    • Disillusioned says:

      It appears to me to undulate; multi-year ice can grow a little, or shrink a little from year to year. But the predicted death spiral is not happening. The Great White Con Man knows this, yet he continues his propaganda campaign anyway.

      • TimA says:

        Please don’t summon that ghoul….

      • Colorado Wellington says:

        You don’t understand climate science physics. The water will resist and the ice will melt through the winter. We are dealing with tough Russian Arctic water there, not some weak New York hipster tap water. Arctic water doesn’t shudder and freeze just because it’s a little cold. The ice will be gone in no time and the Admiral will stop by to remind you of it.

    • Steven Fraser says:

      Psalmon wrote: ‘Every year a range of between 0.5 and 0.8 million cubic meters of ice survives the Arctic Summer. EVERY YEAR.’

      Its more impressive than that. Note the DMI Sea Ice Chart below, for yesterday. I put a green horizontal line on it to help connect the scale on the left (in 1,000s of cu km) with the low point of 2016. The green line intersects the scale a little below 5

      The published lowpoint for that year was 4.46607568605e+12. Since a cu km is 1 billion cu m, and 1000 times that is 1 trillion cu m, to interpret that number just take the e+12 off the end, and put trillion in its place, or 4 trillion, 466 billion, 75 million, 586 thousand and 600 cu m.

      The lowest low in the DMI Sea Ice Volume record is Aug 29, 2008, with a lowpoint of 4.39975204557e+12. The highest low in that record is Aug 16, 2004, with a lowpoint of 8.16680547101e+12.

      With this in mind, I think you should revise your original statement to
      ‘Every year a range of 4.4 – 8.1 TRILLION cubic meters of ice survives the Arctic Summer. EVERY YEAR.’

  3. CCB says:

    The last couple of years Crystal Cruises were able to complete Northwest Passage trips (they turned off the webcam last year for a couple of days while they broke through ice). This year I see three ships trying to make the trip (Crystal is taking the year off). Vavilov (departed 8/12), Ocean Endeavour (departed 8/17), and Le Boreal (departed 8/18). It will be interesting to see what they do this year.

  4. Anon says:

    I don’t buy it… The problem arises when you all try to apply homespun common sense to a field as complicated as Climate Change.

    Even if the sea ice plateaus over the next few weeks, all that means is that we are leaving a period of Common Melting (CM) and undergoing a period of Homeostatic Melting. And as the Sun then slips over the horizon and the line trends upward, that is simply Retrograde Melting.

    Yes there is a cycle as some of you have discerned, but it goes from CM to HM to RM.. and then repeats each year in the same NM-HM-RM pattern. Actually you can factor the M out to simplify to M(C-H-R) and then refer to it simply as the MChar Cycle as we do in Climate Science.

    Very few people in the world are able to understand the basic science and theory (never mind concepts like the MChar or the Warming Hole) about what is happening in the Arctic, for this reason it is best left to the experts.

    • Colorado Wellington says:

      True, but I’m afraid that all real world melting—retrograde or not—will soon be dwarfed by virtual melting.

    • Squidly says:

      HAHAHAHA!!!… that’s some funny stuff…. hahahahaha!!!

      Do you do improv?

      • Anon says:

        Thanks,

        But I think it is more of an indication that I have just given up being able to understand Climate Science. As a scientist, I think I have just MENTALLY CHECKED-OUT.

        I remember the “Warming Hole” that was discovered last year, to explain some unforeseen Climate Change phenomenon. I swear to God, all I could think of after reading about that was:

        “Warming Ho”: Something that unexpectedly shows up at night to keep you warm.

        Its funny, but sad at the same time,,, :(

        • sunsettommy says:

          Anon,

          I have been in this debate for nearly 30 years, yet grow ever more optimistic because the pool of climate warming morons are getting smaller and quieter. They are slowly realizing that the many predicted dooms isn’t showing up, yes they still push the rhetorical nonsense, but they show lack of fire in their convictions.

          Media is now the main engine for climate disinformation and hyperbole, that later comes back to haunt them, Their stupid hyperbole mantra of the last 25 years has desensitized many to stop listening to the bullcrap, heck poll after poll shows it is at the BOTTOM of concerns, or not even show up at all.

          Here is one such example from a forum I debate in:

          New Gallup Poll: Americans do not even mention global warming as a problem – 36 ‘problems’ cited, but not climate

          http://www.usmessageboard.com/threads/looks-like-the-cats-out-of-the-bag.698172/

          Read the feeble comments from warmist whackos there, which make clear they have no cogent rebuttal to it. They are losing and they KNOW IT by the angry replies they make in that forum thread.

          Anon, they are running out of steam as time goes on.
          It is quote a change from 10 years ago when they babbled with confidence and conviction, now they are going through the motions.

          The main problem is in politics where the climate delusion is still strong

          Notice how Griff, Hunt and others like them often promote poor comments that don’t match with reality well. They continue to be very worried about Arctic sea ice, which is actually well above average for the Holocene, despite that it hasn’t go to zero in summer at all not even close to it, despite the many predictions that it would happen by warmists scientists, who to this day can’t admit they were comically wrong.

          • Anon says:

            sunsettommy

            You definitely are speaking the truth there. I was one of those CAGW morons two years ago. What woke me me up was Wikileaks publishing the Podesta Emails. I was so far in the bubble at that point, that Wikileaks shook me to the core… particularly the media silence on it.

            In that Cache were a few mentions of Climate Change and in particular one about Think Progress going after Roger Pielke Jr. Well, it is a long story, but as I finally peeled the onion back, due that Pielke reference, I ended up here.

            And also stopped teaching CAGW at University because of what I found.

            I was just taking the MSM’s word on things and never went back (as Tony did/does) to look at the actual data and scientific papers to verify what they were saying. (I feel like an idiot now.)

            So congratulations about seeing through CAGW long before I did!!!

        • Colorado Wellington says:

          Anon,

          Ms Griff often shows up in the middle of the night but I swear I never thought of her that way.

          • sunsettommy says:

            HE lives in England.

            HIS name is Ed, I know because I am a moderator at WUWT seeing the details of HIS ip background.

            That is why he replies during the American night a lot.

          • Colorado Wellington says:

            Tommy, I knew about the GMT shift but this is not getting any better. I don’t want Ed to show up at night, either. They can call me what they want but I’d rather be cold.

          • Anon says:

            Colorado – lol. :)

            Sunsettommy – England, that makes sense. I guess it explains his posts as well, I think the law stipulates arrest for saying anything contrary to the CAGW.

            WUWT – That is a great website. Keep up the good work! I have not commented there, only so many hours in the day, and I found RCS first. It seems like such a large community over there as well.

          • Griff says:

            I’d like to remind sunsettommy that under EU law it is illegal to reveal details of someone – anyone – has entered into a website.

            And that’s enforceable worldwide.

          • Caleb Shaw says:

            Griff,

            Afraid of publicity? Truth?

          • spike55 says:

            If you think calling you Ed, is in any way a “detail”, you are even more of an idiot that even I thought you were. Its been known for ages.

            You have told others more info about yourself just by your comments.

            Details,

            1. you are an ignorant moron, incapable of learning even the most rudimentary facts..

            2, Somewhere in the UK, probably a snotty dark far-left London suburb.

            3. Semi employed, by someone who is very generous to the mentally handicapped.

          • Colorado Wellington says:

            Ms Griff, is it illegal under EU law to republish details found elsewhere on the internet?

          • sunsettommy says:

            Griff,

            Do you realize using anonymous name is not a legal name, but most people do it anyway.

            Go read this little boy,

            Malicious WUWT troll sees police show up at his door

            “Right Thomas? aka “Lawrence Martin”, aka “Reggie”, aka “Reginald Perrin” aka “Saul from Montreal”, aka “Solomon Gursky”, aka “Master of Space and Thyme” among others… here’s a partial photo of Thomas the troll from the file:”

            https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/12/07/case-closed-malicious-wuwt-troll-sees-police-show-up-at-his-door/

            My first name is THOMAS, who lives in the Pacific Northwest America.

            Oh was that illegal to post……,

            Snicker.

          • Jim Hunt says:

            Thanks for the heads up Tommy!

            I had no idea that Anthony had been broadcasting my bone dry Great British humour to his faithful followers in such glorious fashion :)

            “This particularly malicious troll is one of the “Arctic sea ice zealots” that inhabit Jim Hunt’s “Great White Con” website on sea ice. Both Jim and this troll were long ago banned from WUWT for serially bad behavior breaking our commenting policy multiple times.”

          • spike55 says:

            Jimbo rejoices in his role as a mindless fetid troll.

            His life’s work accomplished.

            How much more PATHETIC and SLIMY can he get. !!

          • Colorado Wellington says:

            Much more. Don’t underestimate the depth of his fetishism and self-love.

          • sunsettommy says:

            Jim,

            I have seen the comments you posted there that were indeed trolling and violation of site policy, you have been warned several times before he finally banned you.

          • sunsettommy says:

            By the way Jim, I know who that malicious troll is who got nailed by Anthony Watts, as this fella is a regular commenter at YOUR blog.

            I have seen YOU asking him to stop the name calling, which means you are not so fond of his behavior on YOUR blog.

    • GCsquared says:

      Anon: “Very few people in the world are able to understand the basic science and theory (never mind concepts like the MChar or the Warming Hole) about what is happening in the Arctic, for this reason it is best left to the experts.”

      I can guess exactly which experts he has in mind, and who is to judge their competence.

      I prefer to be guided by Tony’s quote by Feynman: “Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts.” I suspect, just maybe, that R. P. had a better grasp on science than Anon.

      These melting ideas aren’t that difficult to understand for anyone interested, so I don’t know who Anon is hanging out with, or what their capacities are.

      Anyway, to make this snow job even more obtuse, I’ve taken the liberty of translating the terms into Russian. So we now have Обычное Плавление, Гомеостатическая Плавление, Ретроградное Плавление, and П(О-Г-Р), which we may now abbreviate to П-ОГУРЕЦ. I bet even fewer people are able to understand them NOW!

      Since I used the word, and unlike Anon feel some obligation to explain myself clearly, огурец means cucumber. In Italian, cucumber is cetriolo, a word my boyhood friends would use to describe someone especially thickheaded; it seems especially appropriate here.

      • Disillusioned says:

        And here I was thinking Anon was being tongue-in-cheek. Perhaps that’s because I have a healthy sense of humor. ;-P

  5. angech says:

    Multi year ice is difficult to understand. In late September all the ice left becomes multi year ice so 100%, composed of now 2,3 4 and aliitle bit of 5 year or more. Yet the percentages we are given must be from the end of the freezing spell? Hence any sort of decent recovery must give a reduced percentage of multi year ice initially. Unless related back somehow to the long term average.

  6. neal s says:

    It is truly sad that despite the growing number of failed predictions of gloom, far too many people still believe the lies they have been fed and taught. Unless we either wrest control of education from those who wish to teach lies, or come up with a way to totally bypass them, the number of those misled will continue to rise.

    Thanks Tony for your efforts.

  7. griff says:

    Still melting up there…

    Latest concentration map:
    https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/Arctic_AMSR2_visual.png

    and extent still hovering around 5th lowest.

    (It is dishonest to pick out DMI volume as the main indicator -there’s surely something wrong with its model and also DMU thickness – its the only indicator you can spin to say things aren’t as bad as they were)

    • MrZ says:

      Sorry Griff you are only 2nd best today… Study a better joke above.

    • Anon says:

      Griff is complaining about DISHONESTY now? ROFLMFAO lol

      Climate Science: Is it currently designed to answer questions?
      Richard S. Lindzen: Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Meteorology at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a lead author of Chapter 7, “Physical Climate Processes and Feedbacks,” of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Third Assessment Report on climate change.
      Program in Atmospheres, Oceans and Climate MIT, Cambridge MA 02139, USA

      The above factors are all amplified by the need for government funding. When an issue becomes a vital part of a political agenda, as is the case with climate, then the politically desired position becomes a goal rather than a consequence of scientific research. This paper will deal with the origin of the cultural changes and with specific examples of the operation and interaction of these factors. In particular, we will show how political bodies act to control scientific institutions, how scientists adjust both data and even theory to accommodate politically correct positions, and how opposition to these positions is disposed of.

      http://blog.friendsofscience.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Lindzen12-March-ClimateScienceNOTansweringQ.pdf

      That is a pretty damning indictment and is backed up by other scientists: Here are just a few:

      The Big Bad Forces of Censorship and Intimidation in Climate Science.
      Willie Soon, PhD – Harvard and Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics.

      https://youtu.be/aYAy871w9t8

      How Government Twists Climate Statistics
      Former (OBAMA) Energy Department Undersecretary Steven Koonin on how bureaucrats spin scientific data.

      https://www.wsj.com/video/opinion-journal-how-government-twists-climate-statistics/80027CBC-2C36-4930-AB0B-9C3344B6E199.html

      Neither Griff nor one of his many clones here has ever bothered to respond to any of the above. And now he has the temerity to play DISHONESTY CARD, ufb!

      If you are all wondering how Trump ever got elected President, you need look no further than the HYPOCRISY of Griff. And the more he talks, the more likely Trump will have a second term.

      The nation suddenly WOKE UP.

      • Griff says:

        Lindzen = automatic fail.

        • Gator says:

          Sorry Ms Griff, But Dr Lindzen is actually a climate expert.

          Why do you hate poor brown people Ms Griff?

        • Caleb Shaw says:

          Griff,

          That is a rather childish taunt. It is customary among adults to bring up specific points and to articulate where and how you differ.

          If you descend to the level of taunting you’ll likely be shredded at this site. It’s more dignified to be shredded on more intellectual level, which is what would occur if you had a discussion with Lidzen.

          What you seem to attempt is to taunt when dealing with intellectuals, but to become all intellectual when dealing with people prone to taunting. All this proves is that you are not very good at either.

    • spike55 says:

      Jimbo showed us yesterday just how accurate DMI is.

      You wouldn’t to argue with Jimbo, your comrade non-entity, would you griff. !!

  8. Pathway says:

    If the ice would only melt then Vlad could get the oil and get the old USSR back together and institute world socialism and solve the problem of global warming. See how that works, Griff.

  9. Gator says:

    Fifth lowest only if you cherry pick the past 39 years. But even then, there are four lower years in a very short and cherry picked period.

    So what is your point again? Are we not starving poor brown people to death in great enough numbers for your liking?

    • Squidly says:

      I am stunningly amazed at the hyperventilation that goes on about the Arctic. Funny as can be. Although, I have to admit, the “Death of the Arctic” story is getting really really old. I simply do not care one whit .. it matters not.

      • Gator says:

        Only the agenda driven leftists actually care. A recent poll asked Americans what their greatest concerns are, and not one of the respondent even mentioned climate change. Without the gathering abilities of the internet, which makes fringe elements look like large movements, this whole charade would be over already. But a global push for communism has been possible thanks to the many Potemkin villages and village idiots produced by power hungry governments.

    • Griff says:

      5th lowest in a 40 year set of comparable data, yes… long enough to show climate over weather.

      and there is plenty of evidence of the ice state going back into the 1890s and guess what? The lowest in the 40 year satellite sequence are the lowest in that whole period… lower than the 1940s.

      • Gator says:

        And still nothing new except the alarmist genocide.

        Why do you hate poor brown people and Griff?

      • spike55 says:

        “lower than the 1940s.”

        Almost certainly pretty similar.

        Get back to us when a small boat sails through the Prince of Wales Strait without an icebreaker assist, like Larson did in 1944.

        Latest sea ice reconstructions match temperature quite well griff.

        Or are you going to continue DENYING the facts.?

      • spike55 says:

        Against temperatures

      • spike55 says:

        And of course, the whole 40 years has been just a RECOVERY from the HIGHEST EXTENT since the Little Ice Age.

        The first 9500 or so years of the Holocene had LESS Arctic sea ice than now.

        Why are you continuing to DENY climate change, griff.

        Why do you continue to DENY that the planet is only a small amount above the COLDEST period in 10,000 years?

  10. Steven Fraser says:

    DMI Sea Ice Volume stats for Aug 19 (short version):

    #5 2018 volume declined 21 cu km (8 cu km less than the 16-year average for the date,) so the percentages rose to 111.96% of the 16-year average, and to 111.58% of the 10-year average.

    Stay tuned!

  11. Gerald Machnee says:

    looks like
    https://www.sebroubinet.eu/
    Has been disconnected

  12. Mr Sir says:

    http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

    As of right now (August 20), when arctic temperatures should normally start going below freezing again, it’s still above freezing.

    • spike55 says:

      You mean like in 1979?

    • Disillusioned says:

      Yeah, you hang on to that one.
      SMH

    • Disillusioned says:

      Mr. Sir, is that all you have? The Arctic is so close to 273.15 K (=0C) you’re picking the skin of them cherries.

      http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

    • GCsquared says:

      This plot of air temperature reflects what the ice/water surface is doing to the air, not what the air is is doing to the ice. Since nearly all heat transfer is between radiation and the surface, the surface temperature more determines the air temperature than the other way around.

      In the summer, incoming solar radiation exceeds infrared surface heat loss, so the surface warms until ice starts to melt. The surface can’t get above the melting point of ice, and the air won’t get more than a few degrees above freezing until the summer ends, or the ice totally melts, whichever comes first ;-). As fall approaches, the sun hits at progressively shallower angles, outgoing infrared from the still-warm surface continues to throw off heat, so the surface cools and brings down the air temp with it. This time, there’s nothing limiting how cold frozen ice can get, so the temperature plummets many tens of C.

      Bottom line: air temperature is more of an indicator of surface temp than an source of heat transfer.

      For the current discussion, the main point is that the surface right now is cooling the air which is at freezing, so the surface must be a few degrees cooler yet. Freezing is already happening, as the ship report indicates.

      The day-to-day wild card is cloud cover since it affects both incoming and outgoing radiation. This depends on how much water vapor (absorbs radiation) there is compared to water droplets (reflect radiation). I’ve no idea if it’s possible to show this cloud balance on a map; maybe someone here knows a site that does.

  13. Griff says:

    See this… which shows how poeer a state the ice is in

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/21/arctics-strongest-sea-ice-breaks-up-for-first-time-on-record

    in particular take note of the volume chart – much more realistic than DMI model.

    • Gator says:

      This is not a first time, or a record.

      Why do you hate poor brown people Ms Griff?

      • Colorado Wellington says:

        Gator, Ms Griff revealed to us that she hates poor brown people but you must stop repeating it.

        Under EU law it’s illegal to reveal details that someone—anyone—has entered into a website.

        • Gator says:

          Then why is Ms Griff here everyday, revealing herself to us, doesn’t she know she is breaking the law?

          Does her hatred of poor brown people outweigh her fear of imprisonment?

    • spike55 says:

      The Gruniad……. seriously Griff?

      There is NO science coming from there, griff.

      You make a FOOL of yourself every time you post.

    • angech says:

      PIOMAS gridded thickness was updated (last day 15 August). Computed volume is about 6.19 [1000 km3], sixth lowest behind 2010-2012, 2016, and 2017. and nearly 7th lowest out of last 17 so in the middle really of recent . Could be a really good recovery by November, but ice is a bit unpredictable.

  14. Weylan McAnally says:

    Tony,

    You have it all wrong! The Guardian says so!

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/arctic%E2%80%99s-strongest-sea-ice-breaks-up-for-first-time-on-record/ar-BBMd4tS

    It must be true if the Guardian printed it, right? sarc

    • Griff says:

      It doesn’t matter who reports it…

      go look at the scientific observations reported, the original science, then base your objections on that.

      clearly ice has gone from the north Greenland coast and clearly the Lincoln Sea ice has broken up – that was where the thickest ice used to be.

      you can even see it in this satellite photo
      https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/ice_image/msfa-NHe-a-2018233.sir.gif

      • spike55 says:

        Yep the scientific observations, griff

        Daily DMI volume difference , griff

        No wonder you are so, so DESPERATE.

        Opps, I forgot…you can’t even read a simple chart

      • spike55 says:

        Nice pic , griff.

        DARN, THERE”S A LOT OF SEA ICE UP THERE.!!!

        DMI shows that tiny pocket off the Greenland coast, too griff

        Thanks for showing us how accurate DMI is.

        Good little boy !!

        Still LARGE AMOUNTS of thick sea ice up there griff.

        Try not to cry.

      • Gator says:

        Huh? I thought the thickest ice was over Detroit.

    • spike55 says:

      “It doesn’t matter who reports it…”

      Gruniad are monumental LIARS, and publish GARBAGE, twisting non-facts to suit their far-left agenda.

      If possible they are even more DISHONEST than you are, griff.

  15. Griff says:

    Russian Northern Sea route now open – Russian ice data here:
    http://www.aari.ru/odata/_d0015.php?lang=1

    • spike55 says:

      WOW, about time too. !!!

      Later than the last few years.

      How about the Larsen Route from 1944, is that open yet , griff?

      Look at the daily change in DMI ice volume griff

      NO WONDER you are getting so desperate

      You do know that the Arctic sea ice level is in something like 9500th to 9600th LOWEST place out of the last 10,000 years, don’t you griff?

      Or are you going to continue your WILFULLY DUMB Climate Change Denial.

    • spike55 says:

      Hey griff, do you know what it means when the difference goes negative. ;-)

      Too much for you to figure out ?????

      And look at all that orange that changes into multi-year sea ice really soon.

      WOW. !!!

      I hope no-one is trying to sail along the Alaskan coast without an ice-breaker. ;-)

    • Gator says:

      So what? There is still more ice in the Arctic than the average of the past 9000 years.

      Why do you hate poor brown people Ms Griff?

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