“Missed It By That Much”

On January 15, 2019 Dr. Tracy Twine told the Minnesota House of Representatives “We don’t expect to see temperatures below ten degrees in Duluth any more.”

Since she gave her testimony three weeks ago, Duluth has averaged four below zero. She missed by 14 degrees.

Cloquet is the closest USHCN station to Duluth. For the entire year, Cloquet has averaged 3.3F, and since she gave her testimony on January 15, temperatures have averaged -4.5F. Nighttime temperatures have averaged -17F.

Spreadsheet

Here is her graph, showing colder weather at higher values along the x-axis.

And here is the graph updated with the 2019 data.  I had to shrink the Y-axis quite a bit, to get this year’s record cold to fit.

Dr. Twine also forgot to mention that the frequency of hot summer days in Minnesota has dropped in half since the 19th century, and that Minnesota hasn’t a really hot summer for 30 years.

If you are a glutton for punishment, you can watch the entire hearing here :

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37 Responses to “Missed It By That Much”

  1. Deplorable Dave says:

    It’s not “science” to report the raw temperature like that. That’s like looking at the thermometer outside your kitchen window and believing it. Silly. Modern “science” doesn’t work like that.

    Modern climate “scientists” must “correct” any raw temperature data that disproves AGW climate theories. Remember – the theories are correct, reality is wrong.

    • Disillusioned says:

      Feeling really nostalgic… like it’s 1984.

    • GW Smith says:

      So true. Facts can be adjusted, but belief systems are granite.

    • Taphonomic says:

      Nothing disproves AGW. As soon as something appears to disprove AGW, AGW is revised to demonstrate that the new data support AGW. For example, in the 1970s, polar vortex excursions were a sign of global cooling; in the 2010s, polar vortex excursions are a sign of global warming.

  2. Psalmon says:

    I hope President Trump is reading your blog everyday…this is what the media and the Communists (let’s stop calling them Democrats) are going to run on…

  3. Lasse says:

    Newer do a prediction for a future that is so near.

    • arn says:

      That prediction got debunked so fast by reality(the most evil thing besides co2 and trump)
      that they couldn’t even move the goalpost.
      (therefore they’ll just ignore it and move to the next prediction)

  4. AndyDC says:

    If you are an average person having no familiarity with the actual climate record, her testimony seems convincing. Like who is going to argue with all the wonderful science produced by all these wonderful scientists? How are they to know that what she is saying is an unmitigated pack of lies , designed to frighten people into voting for Democrats and their economy destroying socialist/communist agenda.

    That being said, I always find it amusing when people from frigid parts of the world like Minnesota think that a degree or so of warming is SO horrible, especially after one of the coldest weeks of weather in history. I hope Minnesotans are prepared to rely on wind and solar the next time they are -35 degrees.

    • Robertv says:

      I couldn’t listen longer than 10 minutes. If these people rule in the future there is no future. I wonder what CO2 footprint has a supercomputer making the climate models.

    • Crashex says:

      She is in a position of authority and teaches students every year. The tests for the curriculum make certain that they all retain these ideas and accept the science as presented. After drumming this psuedo-science into students from elementary school, to high school and college, there is a vast group of young adults that believe that all this is true.

    • -B- says:

      I learned how to properly present data in the 5th grade. And I went to government school. I just happened to have a 5th grade science teacher that taught us actual scientific procedures. If we had a decent school system not controlled by government then everyone could see through this nonsense.

  5. Gator says:

    Who is “we”? I’ll bet she cannot find anyone who will admit they agreed with her idiotic statement now.

    How many prediction mulligans do alarmist get these days?

    • Theyouk says:

      “How many prediction mulligans do alarmist(s) get these days?”

      Perfectly worded, and to answer you, I believe it remains ‘unlimited’. Maddening.

  6. frederik wisse says:

    Once upon a time in the north truth counted . Nowadays people are only engaged in identity politics , only the message counts .It is a kind of virtual reality where people are able to bath in their feelings of superiority and drown themselves in feelings of responsibility for events in future that may never happen , but rewarding themselves with a jesus-like importance . It is so false , however consequential to a sex- and life-denying attitude . May God bless America .

    • arn says:

      The reason people are convinced to be engaged in identity politics is to turn their attention away from things that really matter.

      And as soon as you get someone so weak and stupid that you can sell him crap like genderpolitics he will buy everything else from you.
      And the feeling of supremacy you gove such idiot will keep them stuck forever inside the loop of stupidity,
      as those people are so afraid to lose their supremacy and instantly become nazis as soon as they stop to follow/dare to question the official opinion(agw,religion of peace,gender BS,gay worship)
      they remain forever in this mindtrap.

  7. RonR says:

    What a fool. Joe Bastardi had already predicted the vortex moving South at the time of this testimony.

    They measure their achievements by knowledge……I’m dying heeeer!

  8. feathers says:

    These people are dangerous. Laura Ingham had a warmist on her show last night and it was disappointing. Most conservatives are not prepared to debunk their claims.

    • Cannon Cocker says:

      conservatives doing have even the slightest grasp of Post-Modernism, the fundamental basis of “progressivism” (actually, tribalistic regression).

  9. DM says:

    Such flawed testimony from someone named “Twine” brought to mind Sir Walter Scott’s observation “What a tangled web” they “weave, when” they “first practice to deceive.”

  10. gregole says:

    What I personally find most disturbing about some warmunists, this one is a good example, is that they actually seem to believe their own BS.

    I would be merely wary of a polished liar; you fight them by knowing the real truth; but these true believers are psychotic. And that they have credible access to government is deeply disturbing.

    • GW Smith says:

      And that’s why they are there, they are compelled to tell others how to act and what reality is. They are born this way.

    • Richard M says:

      They believe it alright. It’s what they have been taught for decades. This person is not trying to deceive anyone. She is a repeating what the models are telling her. She thinks the models are accurate. There probably isn’t a single person in her University group that doesn’t also believe AGW is completely valid.

      This is what happens when science is hijacked and no skeptical voices exist. One can hope that this person is now having some second thoughts but I doubt it. It wouldn’t be socially acceptable to voice any doubts so it will be written off as an outlier.

  11. -B- says:

    That is one screwy plot. It seems entirely designed to show a desired result. The appearance of the plot could be changed dramatically by adding in 1939-1958 and 1919-1938. Or it could be changed dramatically by simply using something other than a 20 year period or changing the start and end dates of the arbitrary 20 year periods.

    This isn’t science and at best it’s marketing and at worst a scam.

  12. Steven Fraser says:

    Its Friday. High today in Duluth is forecast for 4F. Tomorrow: 9F.

    They are in the middle of another cold blast: -14F is expected tonight.

  13. billtoo says:

    even southern california is breaking record colds this morning. coolwx.com/record but have no fear, I gaurantee that the continental US will come in at 0.48 again

  14. Jasper says:

    1:08:49 – More like “super delusional” instead of “super deluges”

  15. McLovin' says:

    Am I missing something? Her graph shows days below 10F…after she claimed that they didn’t expect to see that anymore? Moreover, why the hell would anyone be bothered if that came to fruition? Has she been outside before when it’s been 10F or less? This broad’s nuts.

  16. I guess that kind of lets the cat out of the bag… Now that they have a “Climate Finance” department.

    Yep, you’re going to need A LOT of cash to pay off the rent seekers.

  17. Patrick Blasz says:

    Miss Twine said that “. . . so, um, are (sic) sea ice is a very good way to cool the planet . . . and that is (sic) already dropped; so, that will take thousands of years to build back up” According to the Danish Meteorological Institute, Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent more than doubles in a matter of mere months. What’s Miss Twine talking about?

  18. An Inquirer says:

    I am not sure that I understand the original graph. I initially figured that the horizontal axis was calendar dates and the vertical axies was # of times in a 20-year period that the average temperature on that calendar date was below 10 degrees. However, that understanding does not square with Tony’s 2019 update. The 2019 temperatures would imply only 1 for the vertical axis for a new 20-year time period 2019-2038.

    Also, if my original understanding was correct, Dr. Twine’s graph would be a bar graph rather than a line graph.

  19. Wisconsin Son says:

    Reminding the real world that there are differences between weather and climate. Just saying.

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