Shape Shifting Science

Climate alarmists alternate between claiming global warming causes more snow and global warming causes no snow.

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4 Responses to Shape Shifting Science

  1. Petit_Barde says:

    Speaking about the Pinatubo eruption,

    in the following article, J. Hansen makes an analysis of the Pinatubo eruption and its impact on the Keeling CO2 Airborn fraction. This ratio represents the proportion of human emitted CO2 that remains in the atmosphere and it decreased of some 30% during the Pinatubo eruption (see figure 3) :

    https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/011006

    My thoughs :

    If this Keeling ratio is of any value, it shows that during the Pinatubo eruption, there has been an increase in CO2 emission fluxes into the atmosphere (positive fluxes from natural sources, and maybe the Pinatubo itself) so as to induce a decrease of this ratio by 30%.
    Meanwhile, the global impact of the eruption has been to slow the CO2 increase during 2 years (according to the Mauna Loa CO2 measurements).

    In order for such decrease (from 60% to 40%) of the Keeling ratio to happend :
    – the positive “natural” CO2 fluxes must have add into the atmopshere some 50% of the actual total atmospheric CO2,
    – the negative “natural” CO2 fluxes must have removed – during the same time laps – the same amount (or even more due to the global T decrease during the eruption) of CO2 from the atmosphere.

    In 1991 the CO2 concentration was 360ppm, so the natural input fluxes during the Keeling ration decrease (roughly 1 year) was equivalent to some 180ppm.
    Each CO2 ppm represents 7.82 gigatonnes of CO2.
    In 2019 we emitted 43.1 gigatonnes of CO2, that’s 5.5 ppm per year.

    Thus, if I’m not wrong and if the Keeling ration is of any value, the Pinatubo eruption induced natural positive fluxes into the atmosphere which are some 30-fold stronger than nowadays human emissions.

    And the CO2 concentration did not move more than a few ppm from its trend and it was a temporary zero trend (plausibly induced by the temporary cooling from aerosols emitted during the eruption).

    One question remains :
    – what’s the actual impact of human activity on the observed atmospheric CO2 trend if even a natural emission 30-fold the human emissions hardly modifies it ?

  2. A very pertinent and discomfiting [ for some ] question Petit Barde ….

    Throughout the continuum of the Little Ice Age there were multiple volcanic eruptions and four deep solar minimums that maintained the colder oceans as carbon reservoirs. There is actually a ‘bump” in the Antarctic ice cores time series signifying a 45GT expulsion of carbon sometime between 1330 – 1350 AD . and yet temperatures in the southern and northern hemispheres continued to cool …This carbon was probably ‘old carbon ‘ released from the oceans as the radiocarbon calibration curve exhibits a radiocarbon enrichment turning point around 1325 – 1335 ….The elegant theory has it that the massive injection of old sea sink carbon diluted the atmospheric radiocarbon and this is probably correct

    Tony , 1990/91 and 1991/92 was a double El Nino episode and the events ” reached their peak intensities in the boreal winter [ North America’s boreal zone winters ] …..This strong boreal winter El Nino might explain the reduced snowfalls of 1991 -92 in the Winter North American Snow Extent graph Another interesting ” aspect of [ the 1991/92 ] El Nino according to this ENSO review is that its warm SSTs propagated eastwards [ toward North America from the central Pacific ] ” as well as the ENSO events of 1982 -83 and 1986 -1988 ” https://ensoreview.com/enso/1991-1992-el-nino/

    The interplay of other climatic anomalies notwithstanding , ,1983 and 1987 are also lower North American winter snowfall years …. Cold air may be penetrating further south over the past 30 years however the data shows that North American cold waves [ See John Christy and Cliff Mass’s research ] have decreased over the last 50 years… I have no answers to this enigma What nauseates me is the ‘unfalsifiable hypothesis ” and ‘moving the goalposts’ fallacies [ you could have explored these logical fallacies in your otherwise brilliant rebuttal ] of the climate evangelists ….

    We see this doomsday delay and portentiousness in apocalyptic cults

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