“projections of future climate are unreliable”

Henrik Svensmark, Professor, DTU, Copenhagen

Published 9/9/2009 at. 03:00

In fact global warming has stopped and a cooling is begun. No climate model has predicted a cooling of the Earth, on the contrary. This means that projections of future climate are unreliable, “writes Henrik Svensmark.

The star that keeps us alive, have over the last few years have been almost free of sunspots, which are the usual signs of the Sun’s magnetic activity.

In last week reported the scientific team behind Sohosatellitten (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) ‘the number of sunspot-free days suggest that solar activity is heading towards its lowest level in about 100 years. Everything indicates that Sun is going into a hibernation-like state, and the obvious question is whether it has any meaning for us on Earth.

If you ask the International Panel on Climate Change IPCC, which represents the current consensus on climate change, the answer is a reassuring “nothing”. But history and recent research suggests that it probably completely wrong. Let us take a closer look at why.

Solar activity has always varied. Around the year 1000, we had a period of very high solar activity, which coincided with the Medieval Warm Period. It was a period when frosts in May was almost unknown and of great importance for a good harvest. Vikings settled in Greenland and explored the coast of North America.Altogether it was a good time. For example, China’s population doubled over this period. But after about 1300 decreased solar activity, Earth began to get colder and it was the beginning of the period we now call the Little Ice Age. In this cold period, all the Viking settlements in Greenland. Sweden surprised Denmark to walk across the ice, and the London Thames froze repeatedly. But more serious was the long periods of crop failures which resulted in a poorly nourished population, because of disease and hunger was reduced by about 30 per cent. in Europe.

It is important to note that the Little Ice Age was a global event. It ended in the late 19th century and was followed by a rising solar activity. Over the past 50 years, solar activity was the highest since the Medieval Warm Period of 1,000 years ago.And now it seems that Sun has changed again and is heading towards what solar scientists call a “grand minimum” as we saw in the Little Ice Age.

The coincidence between solar activity and climate through the ages is explained away as coincidence. But it turns out that almost no matter when you look and not only the last 1,000 years, there is a line. Solar activity has repeatedly over the past 10,000 years has fluctuated between high and low. In fact the Sun over the past 10,000 years spent in a sleep mode approx. 17 per cent. of the time with a cooling of the Earth to follow.

One can wonder why the IPCC does not believe that Sun’s changing activity affects the climate, but the reason is that only changes in solar radiation.

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About Tony Heller

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9 Responses to “projections of future climate are unreliable”

  1. Baa Humbug says:

    Reason is that IPCC they were given a brief find fault to CO2. Else everything they reject had to considerations of nature political.

  2. Alan Simpson says:

    The IPCC is a political organisation with a brief to find a “human signature” in the climate. As a consequence the IPCC must marginalise or downright reject any natural climate drivers, it is a kind of “down the rabbit hole” brand of evidence gathering.

    The IPCC start with a conclusion and try to massage the evidence to support this conclusion, this is the very definition of anti-science.

  3. Erik says:

    Henrik Svensmark – The Chilling Stars

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EpDDqGqN16s

  4. Jimbo says:

    The IPCC will never find fault with AGW because:

    It was established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide the world with a clear scientific view on the current state of knowledge in climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic impacts.

    AGW is a done deal so if they were to find evidence that utterly falsified AGW they would in effect be turkeys voting for Christmas. An unlikely scenario. It’s hard to imagine their continued existence IF we entered another prolonged mini-iceage as that would falsify AGW in my eyes.

  5. Latitude says:

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established by the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in 1988 to assess the scientific, technical and socio-economic information

    ——relevant for the understanding of human induced climate change,—–

    its potential impacts and options for mitigation and adaptation.
    ====================================================
    Not natural climate change.
    The IPCC is mandated that it’s all human induced climate change.
    They will never report anything else.

    so you will never see anything balanced coming from them

  6. co2hound says:

    Don’t you folks know that we are in a cooling period before the next ice age? Don’t you know we are in a time of low sun output? We should be freezing … right? We should have this big fat signal in our monitoring data that shows the world getting colder by the decade!

    But we don’t, it’s getting warmer by the decade … and you guys don’t get it? It’s basic physics.

    I suspected our public education was in trouble, but this is ridiculous.

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