http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/1988/1988_Hansen_etal.pdf
The graph above plots the GISS trend since 1960, overlaid on Hansen’s 1988 predictions. The green circle is the GISS April anomaly of 0.55.
“Scenario A assumes continued exponential trace gas growth, scenario B assumes a reduced linear linear growth of trace gases, and scenario C assumes a rapid curtailment of trace gas emissions such that the net climate forcing ceases to increase after the year 2000.”
Atmospheric CO2 has grown exponentially, so scenario A is the forecast which he should be comparing against. The fact that we are below scenario C (even using bloated GISS numbers) indicates that we can write Hansen’s understanding of climate off as fatally flawed.
Mr Chicken Little might be wrong??????
He has been good for NASA’s purse. Look at all the money they received to study a fabricated problem.
Before his defenders come in claiming some made up BS about this. If he thought one of the other scenarios were most likely he would have labeled that one BAU and labeled A as worst case, C as with restrictions. He labeled B and C as with restrictions.
A better comparison would be with surface data that is not part of the GISS collective. A still better comparison would be Hansen’s 1988 prediction of troposphere temperature trends, versus UAH or RSS measurements of the troposphere. However, I have not seen any Hansen model output of troposphere temperature predictions from 1988.
I suppose you could scale the surface temperature predictions up by 1.2 or so, and then overlay on UAH data.
I predict a travesty.
We are saved!
From the evil computers.
We must be doing a great job curtailing emissions. No need for any further action. Shut these clowns down, before they get us into an Ice Age.
Exactly! We have overshot the target so why all the attempts at achieving a rapid curtailment of trace gas emissions. Temperature is fine according to Hansen.
So I can assume that there has been
Even when they are wrong they argue that they are right. That’s modern day climate science for you. 🙂