From the late 1970s until about 2006, I was a global warming stooge. I saw how the weather was warming in the southwest and in the UK. As much as I like to make fun of Viner, I completely bought off on the idea that snow was a thing of the past in England. The idea that increasing greenhouse gases raises the temperature, seemed quite reasonable as a hypothesis.
In the autumn of 2006, I started noticing that the weather was getting noticeably cooler again. I began to research the quantitative aspects of Hansen’s theories – going straight to the source of NCAR’s radiative transfer models. What immediately became obvious is that the impact of rising CO2 is very small, and that Hansen’s theories are entirely based on an irrational view of the world.
Hansen believes that the system is inherently unstable, and that tiny radiative transfer changes greatly amplify – except in the case of solar irradiation. He ignores that case because it wrecks his theory.
The real world is buffered – i.e dominated by negative feedback. The bottom line is that Hansen’s beliefs are complete scientific garbage, and only serve as an indicator of his wildly paranoid view of the universe. He got so desperate to prove his theory, that he started cheating with the data. Probably the most egregious abuse of science in history.
Is this a personal opinion of yours or is it the opinion of someone else?
It is all written in the first person by me.
CO2AGW hinges on the assumption of positive water vapor feedback.
This is an experimental and observational debunking:
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.co.uk/2012/03/simple-disproof-of-runaway-greenhouse.html
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2012/03/simple-disproof-of-runaway-greenhouse.html?showComment=1332558067400#c2031512486689428024
This mirrors my own experience. I was quite convinced for a couple of decades that AGW was upon us. Only when I had cause to look at it closely did I realise what a flimsy scientific base it rested upon.
We have been duped and there is no sign that this perversion of science is going to stop. There is just too much money in it.
It’s been swings and roundabouts for me. No reason to doubt the claims when you know nothing about the basis of those claims. Then when you do research and discover all the cheating you get so disgusted you tend to throw the baby out with the bath water. So then, after more research, I went back to a more middle of the road position, and became what one would describe as a “luke warmer”. Which I still am. However, when you see the latest extreme weather nonsense it’s very hard not to feel that original disgust.
Thank you for for your change and for being vocal.
I grew up with the “next ice age” of the 70s, the population bomb, and handed out flyers for the first earth day. I researched the climate back then, and found that there were natural cycles. I have been a firm believer in natural climate change ever since.
I got into nuclear power, I argued with protesters and found that vocal protesters and followers of ecological groups are stupid/ignorant and being manipulated by leaders with adjendas that have nothing to do with ecology or peace. Modern Nuclear power is needed for the future.
I have seen, or read about peak oil constantly on a regular basis. But each year, new finds grow the amount of oil available. The Green River shale oil deposits have been know about for years, but they were technically unrecoverable. With new technology, they are now recoverable.
Thank you for what you write. There are thousands of worthwhile subjects out there untouched by “responsible” media. You are touching a few each day.
25 or so years ago, I first read in scientific magazines about that theory. I felt it was kind of awkward, because during the seventies I read over and over again about the upcoming Ice Age, and I can assure you that it was not presented as a bizarre theory at that time, but something people were talked about very frequently. So, this 180° turn felt very strange. A little later, long articles began to appear, in scientific magazines again, that in the beginning were quite sceptic as I clearly remember. But a short time later, without any proofs, the AGW became the indisputable theory of climate. How astonishing, in a scientific world!
The first time I understood those people were crazy was when I read an article – during the ’90’s – wherein some people (I didn’t memorize their name) said that the Sun’s influence was of no relevance to our planet’s climate. I thought that the guys who wrote this must have been insane. A little later, another article described how the temperatures measured by the satellites didn’t show any warming – already! – when ground thermometers did. What was the reaction of the guys in charge? Change the perception of the data! By twisting the way the satellite’s readings were made, they managed to make both sets of data match, and the theory looked not falsified.
And, do you know what? To my great astonishment, nobody said this was not a scientific way to behave!
Afterwards, I noticed that the AGW became the theory of choice of the European left (I’m Belgian), that it was reflected everywhere – even in gardening TV shows! – and that it was the new Undisputable Truth. Even my wife told me once – she knew what I thought about the whole thing – that she believed the theory was right.
Thinking about the past manufactured scares, the ozone layer’s hole, the nuclear winter, the coming Ice Age, the AIDS as a new universal plague, the acidic rains, the BSE that would kill at least 600000 Englishmen, the death of the forests, the A H1N1 flu, and so on and so on, I noticed that very often the source of these stupidities were either politicians, either the UNO. All of them were craving for more power and more money. As you Americans say justly : “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, …”
So, here are we. 25 or so years later. The Great Delusion is not over. I’m still thinking, more than ever, that it is a politically and administratively oriented con game, that marked very clearly the limits of science when it is intertwined with politics. Temperatures seem to tell I was right all along. Now, my wife agrees with me about the fact that all of this very probably is an heresy. I met a few days ago an archaeologist who was astonished by the fact that I didn’t buy the AGW – as he doesn’t either. He told me that people like him, or geologists, or even meteorologists, were never asked about their thoughts on the subject. I am not astonished in the least way by that.
I could go on and on, but will end here.
The battle is not over! Civil servants are stubborn and irremovable. Politicians are stupid and greedy. Steven, keep the good job going on!
Like your thinking but differ just a little. I don’t think that most politicians are stupid or even ignorant for that matter. But the “masses” are ignorant, especially in thebasic sciences and are easily led to being willing to pay huge amounts of money to correct these “problems” that you have listed. In a nutshell, “follow the money”!
Dear Ken,
I think you’re right on the question of the politicians’ intelligence if : 1) you take them individually, and not as group plastered together by their particular partisan nonsense, as it is imposed on them by their party’s head bureau; 2) if you look at them when they are still young enough, before years of political practice have turned them into alcoholic bums. ;o)
I’ve had to deal with this crap since day one….watched how it corrupted almost all other sciences
Eighty percent of AGW is crap, 100% of CAGW is crap.
I never believed in global warming and have mocked the fools that do since the inception of this stupid theory. It’s all about politics. The theory was designed as a way to impose the ecofascist way of life on everyone. Using pseudoscience to brainwash the masses, they have almost succeeded. Now that the tide is turning and more people are disbelieving the Climate Liar story, I expect they will get desperate and try to impose draconian laws on everyone or resort to violence. Never underestimate the immorality and utter stupidity of the green movement. They will butcher tens of millions of lives for their cause if given the chance.
Nothing it seems is like what the press reports as being true. When I was a child I had three experiences with what was reported in the newspapers and concerned what I observed as an eye witness: the press reports were made up stories–heroics of a teacher at a school fire when the teacher panicked and sent the class out through the burning door way of the classroom; a souvenir WWII 81 mm mortar shell that was a “live round” that had to be blown up to safeguard the family that had it–the round was a training model used to show troops how an 81 mm mortar shell was constructed and worked and never was a live one; and of evil Republican hecklers of Adlai Stevenson during a campaign stop during the 1956 Presidential race–I was standing next to the encounter in a Hotel lobby and observed a few business men who were at a raised bar area having cocktails laughing at the diminutive, corpulent, red nosed Politician who was passing below them as he entered the Hotel to give a speech ( A photo of the encounter was a prop for the Democrat supporting Newspaper to construct a story damaging to Republicans). Those three episodes were like a vaccine against my being a believer. It has only gone down hill from there with me and the Media.
Given my science and math education through two post-docs and career of over 30 years my nihilism has only been reinforced to include the scientific press as well.
Dan Kurt
The first I heard of globull warming was when I saw an episode of… I hesitate to admit this, but here goes: This Morning with Richard and Judy. There, I said it, ok. Get over it, I’m going back the best part of two decades. (I’m so ashamed!)
Anyhoo. Al Gore was on the show promoting his film and book, and kept repeating “the science is settled, the debate is over, there’s a consensus” and such nonsense. I was completely scientifically naive up to that point, but one thing I had already learned was a healthy distrust of politicians, especially the really slimy kind. And so began my own research and ongoing scepticism. I remembered the previous big scare that we all learned as school kids in the early 80s – acid rain – that was by now all-but-forgotten, like the population bomb and global cooling scares before it.
Actually, come to think of it – he can’t have been promoting his film as that didn’t come out until the mid 2000s.
The first time I heard the words, ‘Global Warming”, in the mid 90’s, my immediate reaction was that it is a natural cycle of cooling/warming. Finally, in ’08 I decided to figure it out for myself.. Turns out my first thought on the subject was correct.
The investigation is long over, but it is entertaining to watch the green zealots push/shove/spread the propaganda at us non believers. If there was no money in it, AGW would evaporate like the morning dew.
I really didn’t follow the issue until 2007 when we had an unusually prolonged winter here in the NW. I gravitated almost immediately to planetary motion as the likely cause….simply because it is periodic. I was an early follower of WUWT, and began to consume everything I could find on the topic. The realization that CAGW is a cult ideology revealed (for me) that Marxism and Malthusian ideologies are the underlying cults with wide (and powerful) followings. This completely transformed my worldview. Rational argument has prevailed at the moment, but the cult is obviously unfazed by reality. We aren’t out of the woods on this yet.
I agree with Goddard.
I care about the environment. I “reduce, reuse, recycle.” I pick up litter on my running routes – cans, plastic, garbage. I plant a garden. I try to avoid use of chemicals. I drive when I have to and “hypermile” to the extent that is possible and legal.
But I do not like the politically-driven CAGW alarmism, policy-based evidence-making. I’ve seen fraud and deception in medical research which is driven by money and/or ideology. I do not like bullies, which is how the alarmists behave.
I saw, lived through, and banner waved for the original 1970s global ice-age bandwagon. I was young, politically naive, and thought my generation could make a difference. Since then I have watched as it morphed into AGW – it then started to look like nonsense. Al Gore nailed it for me, confirming that this was a empty theory driven by politics. By the time it arrived at the man-made climate change and the greenhouse gas rubbish, it was clear that this whole thing was a global con.
Thankfully the internet with sites like this blog, WUWT, NoTricksZone, DrTimBall.com, whatisclimate.com, chiefio.wordpress.com, sciencespeak.com and many others have helped to give a better perspective on this matter.
As a career geologist, it’s always been difficult to accept the inherent hyper-sensitivity of the CAGW hypothesis. The Earth has experienced at least 3 other major ice ages in the last 600 million years, and it has been demonstrably warmer than today for most of the intervening millennia.
Life, in all its myriad forms, has survived all of these climatic gyrations
The very notion that a miniscule trace gas (that is heavily buffered by oceanic absorption/outgassing and by biologic consumption/production) could “control” atmospheric temperature is beyond comprehension.
As I’ve said before, if CO2 is so all-fired powerful, why does every glacial period begin with cooling at the very time that both T and CO2 are at contemporary high-stands??
Hansen is an ass.
I never cared much about the global warming madness. After 2000 I enjoyed a very warm February and thought, they, maybe they’re right about global warming; this ain’t too bad.
Later I stumbled across The Skeptical Environmentalist which discussed the IPCC projections amongst all the other environmental themes. Lomborg talked about the uncertainties. So I though, aha, it’s a sham.
Later climategate happened.
No, I lived through the Coming Ice Age scare, I lived through the farce of Ozone Depletion, I survived the Great Alar Scare, and several others. I mean, I don’t need to work on a farm to know what horse shit smells like.