Guest post by Joe Bastardi
Just a reminder
Here was the Weatherbell Hurricane forecast that was issued late in late March. I don’t believe in the silly number games, but came up with 8-11 because that is what the ace index I am forecasting (70-90) would give on average. I think if these number fixated guys want to show how good they are, should focus on the ace index, because of the dime a dozen naming. For instance , while Chris did look like a hurricane, it developed over water colder than NHC criteria. This would never have been named in 1968, when we had 3 start the season as fast as this year.
Notice though this forecast is not really about the names
It is about exactly what you have seen happen so far. Developments near the coast, with watches or warnings with the first advisory. I am expecting a much weaker year in the tropical breeding grounds. That being said, storms like Carol 1954, Belle 1976, and Bob in 1991 all hit the northeast in lower number years, after developing within 200 miles of the coast! And Belle and Bob were El nino year storms. Like it or not, the weather pattern is like the 1950s, with major heat in the US and the threat of hurricanes on the east coast especially relative to normal. The tracks of the 1950 major hurricanes show this. Throw in Connie and Diane in 1955 and the NC coast got hit 5 times in 2 years
We are in the 1950s pattern again.. cold pdo warm amo, so on the east coast, we have to be more vigilant in the larger sense as we are way way overdue as you can see here. So when they come, then we already know how to counter the McKibbens and Cullens . In fact the more pertinent question now is why hasn’t there been more( Has to be global warming, they own every answer)
The heat the drought in the nation.? Well the PDO flipped in the late 40s, It flipped again in 2007 Look at the temps from 1952-1956 in summer
Drought severity
Precip
Temps
Here we are, a few years later.. Just what did you think would happen?
Arm yourself with facts and stay cool as the Bovine Bologna Brigade continues to ramp up events happening now, though much like what happened before in the same kind of climate cycle, because of their ignorance of the past, or deceptive tactics if they do know.
Grant money used to create this: 0
Time to gather data : 15 minutes
Time to write this ( only one proofread.. don’t have the grants to do more) 15 minutes.
IT DOES NOT TAKE LONG TO FIND FACTS, WHEN YOU KNOW THEM AND KNOW WHERE THEY ARE!
thanks for the update Joe, won’t affect me in Alberta, but I watch with interest anyhow!
You’ve got too much common sense Joe, your just an idiot! sarc/off Good show Joe!
“how to counter the McKibbens and Cullens In fact the more pertinent question now is why hasn’t there been more( Has to be global warming, they own every answer)”
LOL:
Yes. GW = overall more stable weather/climate. That doesn’t get into the thickheads of the Chicken Little Alarmist warmists. Global Cooling is the answer to worse weather/climate. That’s a good thing according to those same thickheaded Chicken Little warmist alarmists. 😉
Explain the ‘mechanics’ of a PDO ‘flip’ to us Joe.
I will refer you to Bill Grays papers on the Thermohaline circulation. There is no short answer and in fact we are all searching for the unmoved mover that drives the entire planetary circulation, both ocean and air. Which of course puts us in the company of aristotle and aquinas ( he search for what starts it all)
Next time you are at the water cooler, let your friends know that
Take a look at Dr Grays work on this matter! ( hint its not co2)
That’s all well and good, Joe, but you blew the Rita forecast…BIG TIME. A lot of the mass panic and hysteria was due to people like you still warning of a direct Houston hit long after it was becoming apparent that Rita was going east. 😐
Perhaps I should ask the question another way Joe. What happened in 2007 that constituted a PDO ‘flip’?
With absolutely no proof, but merely the observation that this behavior is cyclical and exhibiting periods similar to other patterns within the solar system, I’ll wager the answer is celestial mechanics. But I doubt there is anyone good enough to deduce the specific mechanisms.
See the 1994 paper in Oceanography Vol. 7(1) by Miller et al. for a precedent. The paper is titled: “The 1976-1977 climate shift of the Pacific Ocean.”
You proofread Joe? 😉
Your work and desire to explain the ‘why behind the what’ has helped me immensely with my dissertation topic. Just wanted to say thanks.
The ENSO crowd keep invoking the PDO ‘flip’ to explain data. They must know how it works and how it manifests itself ‘physically’. Otherwise they are using a ‘phantom’ to explain a ‘fantasy’.
You don’t have to understand how something works in order to observe something working. We can observe human consciousness but that doesn’t mean we understand it as a process.
I agree Will. So they don’t know ‘How’ it works. Joe tells us there was a PDO ‘flip’ in 2007. What ‘physical manifestation’ was observed in 2007 (by Joe or anyone else, that constituted a PDO ‘flip’?