Joe Bastardi Gives A Heads Up On What To Expect In The Tropics This Summer

Guest post by Joe Bastardi

Just a reminder

Here was the Weatherbell Hurricane forecast  that was issued late in  late March.  I  don’t believe in the silly number games,   but  came up with  8-11 because that is what the ace index I am forecasting  (70-90)  would give on average.  I think if these  number fixated guys  want to show how good they are,  should focus on the ace index,  because of the dime a dozen naming. For instance , while Chris did look like a hurricane, it developed over  water colder than NHC  criteria. This would never have been named  in  1968, when we had 3  start the season as fast as this year.

Notice though this forecast is not really about the names

It is about exactly what you have seen happen so far. Developments  near the coast, with watches or warnings with the first advisory.  I am expecting a much weaker year in the tropical breeding grounds. That being said, storms like  Carol  1954,  Belle  1976, and Bob in 1991 all hit the northeast in lower  number years, after developing within  200 miles of the coast!   And Belle and Bob were El nino year storms.  Like it or not, the weather pattern is like the 1950s, with major heat in the US  and  the threat of  hurricanes on the east coast especially relative to normal.  The tracks of the  1950 major hurricanes show this. Throw in Connie and Diane in  1955 and the NC coast got hit  5 times in  2 years

We are in the 1950s  pattern again.. cold pdo  warm amo,  so on the east coast, we have to be more vigilant in the larger sense as we are way way overdue as you can see here.  So when they come, then we already know how to counter the McKibbens and Cullens .  In fact the more pertinent question now is why hasn’t there been more( Has to be global warming, they own every answer)

The heat the drought in the nation.? Well the PDO flipped in the late  40s, It flipped again in  2007   Look at the temps from 1952-1956 in  summer

Drought severity

Precip

Temps

Here we are,  a few years later.. Just what did you think would happen?

Arm yourself with facts and stay cool  as the Bovine Bologna Brigade continues to ramp up events happening now,  though much like what happened before in the same kind of climate cycle, because of their  ignorance  of the past,  or deceptive tactics if they do know.

Grant money used to create this: 0

Time to gather data :  15 minutes

Time to write this (  only one proofread.. don’t have the grants to do more)  15 minutes.

 

IT DOES NOT TAKE LONG TO FIND FACTS, WHEN YOU KNOW THEM AND KNOW WHERE THEY ARE!

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13 Responses to Joe Bastardi Gives A Heads Up On What To Expect In The Tropics This Summer

  1. Lance says:

    thanks for the update Joe, won’t affect me in Alberta, but I watch with interest anyhow!

  2. Brian D says:

    You’ve got too much common sense Joe, your just an idiot! sarc/off Good show Joe!

  3. Marian says:

    “how to counter the McKibbens and Cullens In fact the more pertinent question now is why hasn’t there been more( Has to be global warming, they own every answer)”

    LOL:

    Yes. GW = overall more stable weather/climate. That doesn’t get into the thickheads of the Chicken Little Alarmist warmists. Global Cooling is the answer to worse weather/climate. That’s a good thing according to those same thickheaded Chicken Little warmist alarmists. 😉

  4. Don Gaddes says:

    Explain the ‘mechanics’ of a PDO ‘flip’ to us Joe.

    • Joseph Bastardi says:

      I will refer you to Bill Grays papers on the Thermohaline circulation. There is no short answer and in fact we are all searching for the unmoved mover that drives the entire planetary circulation, both ocean and air. Which of course puts us in the company of aristotle and aquinas ( he search for what starts it all)

      Next time you are at the water cooler, let your friends know that

      Take a look at Dr Grays work on this matter! ( hint its not co2)

  5. NavarreAggie says:

    That’s all well and good, Joe, but you blew the Rita forecast…BIG TIME. A lot of the mass panic and hysteria was due to people like you still warning of a direct Houston hit long after it was becoming apparent that Rita was going east. 😐

  6. Don Gaddes says:

    Perhaps I should ask the question another way Joe. What happened in 2007 that constituted a PDO ‘flip’?

    • Traitor In Chief says:

      With absolutely no proof, but merely the observation that this behavior is cyclical and exhibiting periods similar to other patterns within the solar system, I’ll wager the answer is celestial mechanics. But I doubt there is anyone good enough to deduce the specific mechanisms.

    • Rick says:

      See the 1994 paper in Oceanography Vol. 7(1) by Miller et al. for a precedent. The paper is titled: “The 1976-1977 climate shift of the Pacific Ocean.”

  7. Rick says:

    You proofread Joe? 😉

    Your work and desire to explain the ‘why behind the what’ has helped me immensely with my dissertation topic. Just wanted to say thanks.

  8. Don Gaddes says:

    The ENSO crowd keep invoking the PDO ‘flip’ to explain data. They must know how it works and how it manifests itself ‘physically’. Otherwise they are using a ‘phantom’ to explain a ‘fantasy’.

    • You don’t have to understand how something works in order to observe something working. We can observe human consciousness but that doesn’t mean we understand it as a process.

  9. Don Gaddes says:

    I agree Will. So they don’t know ‘How’ it works. Joe tells us there was a PDO ‘flip’ in 2007. What ‘physical manifestation’ was observed in 2007 (by Joe or anyone else, that constituted a PDO ‘flip’?

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