The latest that the ice has ever broken up is May 20th (going back almost 100 years.) This year will certainly end up in either the #1 or #2 spot.
Disrupting the Borg is expensive and time consuming!
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The early ice breakup in 1998 was the last hurrah for the PDO’s warm phase. Since that pivot year, the trend has been for later and later breakups.
Until the 6th of May they were updating the ice thickness twice weekly for over a month. No update since. Ice must be approaching the breaking point and they no longer wish to add the extra weight of the measuring crew on the ice and accidentally cause it to breakup early.
It was 40 inches on May 6th.