We have very low sunspot activity and a possible La Nina forming. Now all we need is a big volcanic eruption.
Extra credit : Above normal sea ice. Without the explicit support of the White House, the climate criminals would already be down for the count.
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k5hWWe-ts2s]
That’s a horrifically bad color scale they’re using. It even recycles colors, using the indistinguishable dark purples and reds for very positive and negative anomalies.
Instinctively, we think of “cool” greens and blues and “warm” yellows and reds. That’s not what they’ve done at all: green means higher than “normal” and red could mean a seven-degree cold anomaly.
Interesting that the anomaly chart traces out the rowers’ route. Almost a Gore effect, isn’t it?
===|==============/ Keith DeHavelle
yikes……thanks for pointing that out Keith….the rowers are freezing
The colors are easy..yellow to purple is warmer…..blue to purple is colder
The surface water with a salinity of 30 in the Arctic Ocean, freezes at -1.7 C.
Cold poles, cold central Pacific, cold N. Atlantic,… it’s starting to get interesting. All we need it the N. Pacific to be strong “blue” as it was in 2012 and the stage will be set.
Ahem….. uh, the… uh…. draggers.
Steven please get your head right …. as the warminista told you it is only above normal sea ice because so much of it has melted … don’t you know nothin’
Hmmm …. there was a sarc tag there but it failed to post with the rest … my bad.
Kamchatkaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
Philippines… 🙂
In Indonesia:Mount Rokatenda in East Nusa Tenggara province erupted early Saturday morning
http://news.msn.com/world/indonesia-volcano-erupts-kills-six-people?ocid=ansnews11
Maybe 3 for 3?
Shhh. Too early to use that volcano as an excuse. They’ll wait for several months, then start saying the Arctic ice level was larger this year, but it was due to this volcano. By then, no one will note this eruption was way late in the summer. They’ll say it wasn’t a large eruption, but we were surprised by how big an effect it had, in an obligatory article on using particulates to cool the earth.
This is a too small one, I think not even VEI4.
Too small for what? They’re explaining the lack of warming on the deep ocean soaking up the heat so I’m not sure reality really matters.
I agree, for them reality doesn’t matter, but Steve seems to be expecting a large VEI-5 or VEI-6 somewhere. A VEI-4 or less will not change the present cooling trend too much.
Germany Dozes on a Volcano
http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/juergen-habermas-merkel-needs-to-confront-real-european-reform-a-915244.html
Poles going to flip on the sun(happens every 11 years) around start of winter and tends to set up blocking, Cold winter
Good video Joe Bastardi did the other day on the sun sunspots pdo. Not going to let you get away with it.
http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/2593834248001/colder-weather-coming/
I wonder if this affects which hemisphere gets the most heating. The last time this happened, 2002, resulted in the artic begin warming and the antartic began really cooling. The time before that, 1991, the artic and northern hemisphere was really cold, while the southern hemisphere and antartic began heating up.
This might mean that it will reverse again with the artic cooling down and antartic warming. The problem is that this years cycle is very weak. Perhaps with the sun flipping and cycle 24 proving to be less radiant, we’re looking at several years of colder than usual temperatures.
Thanks for the video, needless to say Joe correct again in his analysis and his fight for the truth, but I believe there is a kind of “positive feedback” between the AMO and the solar radiations that could bring the decline of temperatures to even lower levels than he is expecting…
The ENSO trend for many decades now has been for lower averages
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml
and the only reason we’re not experiencing considerably lower temperatures right now is because of the very high intensity of recent solar cycles, especially C19, C21 and C22.
more data,
http://i48.tinypic.com/10ef0vd.jpg
and analysis,
http://westernusawx.info/forums/index.php?showtopic=33725&p=616052
I like that Dennis Kneale pointed out that Corey Powell is a journalist taking on a meteorologist. I think Joe could run circles around that guy all day long.
http://discovermagazine.com/events/programming-life/event-details/meet-the-panelists#.UghJ6I157oM
Cool water off western Africa and cool water in the eastern Caribbean
Africa has been consistently colder than S. America in recent years… I think this indicates some “forcing” associated with Antarctica increasing icecap and the current trend for another La Nina is associated with this forcing too.
Nah, mmCO2 will burn us all! The ITCZ [see fairy tales right here] hotspots will save us and don’t forget all that hideaway warmy warmy stuff all saved up inde oceans ‘n’all, yup the IPCC have their finger on the pulse, someone should tell ’em Arrhenius is dead though.
My favorite color is just North of Western Canada. Maybe I am a little sadistic.
Does anyone know what the SST anomalies have been for the year up to now– and for last year?
PDO is a little less negative this year than 2012,
http://stateoftheocean.osmc.noaa.gov/atm/images/pdo_short.gif
AMO is a little less positive
http://stateoftheocean.osmc.noaa.gov/atm/images/amo_short.gif
and NINO-3.4 region continues the trend continued negative anomalies since 2010,
http://stateoftheocean.osmc.noaa.gov/sur/images/nino34_short.gif
General cooling of southern oceans, probably connected with record extent of Antarctic icecap,
http://bobtisdale.files.wordpress.com/2012/03/13-southern.png
As I said before Steve, I really think a large VEI6+ will not happen anytime soon, but I agree that it’d be wonderful for “our cause” if it indeed happened, to dismiss this great hoax once and for all…
I believe large EQs and large eruptions are connected in some way (both come from underground!:-) and we have had too many large EQs recently…
One cannot say much about predicting a VE, but I would disagree that “… it’d be wonderful for ‘our cause’ …”. I think the opposite would be “wonderful for our cause” as I am confident we will be continuing to cool without it, and without a VE the nutters have less to grab onto for excuses.
http://phys.org/news/2013-08-earth-mantle-contributes-greenland-ice.html Did you see Greenland melting from hydrothermal LOLOLOL Settled Science!!!
I currently don’t see any indication of a La Nina developing any time soon. The trades are just about dead “average” which would indicate continued neutral conditions. The ENSO models are showing most of the more recent model runs pointing to more likely El Nino than La Nina but even if we did get an El Nino, we wouldn’t see anything too powerful as there doesn’t seem to be a lot of warm water in the Western Pacific Warm Pool.
Coming soon from an alarmists nut-jobs near you ::
“Man-made global warming causing unprecedented & extreme long-lived El-Nino neutral event”
We almost had a La Nina episode at the beginning of this year as the following table shows,
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml
and this chart,
http://stateoftheocean.osmc.noaa.gov/sur/images/nino34_short.gif
The conditions became less favorable after that due to the spring and summer seasons in the NH. The PDO is starting to show signs of going more negative in the months ahead and the waters of the S. Atlantic show negative anomalies as well as the ENSO-34 region,
http://www.climate4you.com/SeaTemperatures.htm#Arctic%20gateway%20seas%20%2820W-40E.%2070-80N%29%20heat%20content%200-700%20m%20depth
The trend for another La Nina has been there for nearly 10 months now and we’re approaching the end of the year, when usually the ENSO anomaly becomes more manifest.
I’d be *very surprised* if another La Nina does *not* develop before the end of 2013.
“It’s worse than we thought”
What is really interesting to me is the extent to which the Indian Ocean has been cooling recently:
http://bobtisdale.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/12-indian.png
Reblogged this on Climate Ponderings.
Three weeks of northern summer to go. The West African and Caribbean hurricanes need to get a move on, or there won’t be enough heat there to get them going. Had a cold and wet winter across southern Australia.
Gaia needs to keep a cork in it for a couple more years. A nice cold winter or 2 and the credibility of the CAGW crowd will be equal those who believe Oh-Bomb-Ya will close Gitmo as he promised.