Julienne Stroeve from NSIDC sent over some additional information on Arctic happenings.
We called the minimum today, even though JAXA and Bremen showed a decline today. It still might jump up and down a bit, regions like the Beaufort and Chukchi seem to oscillate daily between increases and decreases, with overall decreases from the first of September until yesterday. The E. Siberian shows a larger decrease for the month thus far (twice as much as the Beaufort and Chukchi seas), but the last few days it shows a clear increase and you can see new ice forming in the MODIS imagery. The Laptev Sea is also still showing slight decreases.
Posted this at WUWT, so I’ll post it here too.
Here we go…preliminary JAXA number would be a new 2010 minimum – 4941094 km^2. This is part of the reason I wasn’t super-confident (I said on WUWT that I was only 72.5% sure we’d reached the min) we’d reached the minimum yet…one day of large loss could ruin it. I’m guessing the number will be revised upward…11719 km^2 or more will keep it from the minimum, and that’s a reasonable adjustment. It’ll be a real nail-biter.
Funny it’s coming so close to going below this year’s minimum on the very day the professionals announce that the minimum was already reached.
Honestly, I think the final Sept 15 number will edge out slightly above the existing Sept 10 minimum, but we may be so close to it that another day of loss will make it go under.
-Scott
Satellites aren’t very good at picking up new ice, which is quite abundant now.
There’s a decrease (it appears) also in the Arctic in tension between Russia and Norway:
In what could end decades long dispute….Russia and Norway have signed a maritime border agreement….could boost offshore oil and gas exploration, which was banned in the region because the two nations have been at odds….in the Barents Sea….
http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/7019915036?Russia,%20Norway%20End%2040-Year%20Old%20Maritime%20Border%20Row
I’ll chuckle if it continues to lose ice for a couple more days….. I’m not sure why NSIDC are being so hasty?
Andy
Andy, in NSIDC’s data we saw a decline today of nearly 70K, but in terms of the 5-day mean, the minimum remains on the 10th of September. It would take a few more days of decline to change the date of the minimum, which could happen. We have seen evidence of new ice formation in the E. Siberian Sea, but winds can still result in further compression of the icepack.
You will be probably be right, though another large downwards value today on JAXA, not sure what your algorithm produced though.
Andy
I’d say there will be a maximum of two days of extent decreases, and then it’s really finished. Unless the weather forecasts change, of course.
It looks like the 2010 minimum has been set. With the cold temps we are seeing in the arctic now we are definitely making new ice. So, either the “death spiral” is significantly stalled or we are looking at a modest recovery. And if that photo is really Julienne Stroeve, she’s [very attractive].
[OK, maybe I do a little bit of censorship – Steve]
I hope no one misconstrues my previous comment concerning Ms. Stroeve.
Absolutely no offense was intended, and I apologize if any was taken. It’s just that after seeing her nice photo I now understand why the ice is always melting at NSIDC.
Another 50K+ loss in extent according to IJIS. Some of that compaction potential is finally being put to work, and that ice pack in the East Siberian Sea that separated from the big one is not home free either. I wonder if and when this will show through in the NSIDC graph.
Now 4.832 .. I guess ice extent is no longer flavour of the month now though :p
Andy
At this point, it has become an angels dancing on pins argument.
New ice is forming and the details of the wind really aren’t particularly interesting.
Well if it compacts more then might be harder to melt come spring? So maybe some relevance?
Andy