–
Julienne Stroeve from NSIDC graciously agreed to answer some queries about ice thickness. My questions and her responses are below.
1. Ice extent in 2010 is higher than 2008. What about thickness though? Is the remaining ice thicker or thinner than 2008?
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We won’t know that until we get some data from Icebridge or Cryosat2 processed. I’m sure Dr. Giles in the UK will also be looking at the ERS1/2 data but at this point I don’t have any of the thickness data collected.
2. Is the remaining ice older or younger than 2008?
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Through the end of August, today the Arctic has the least amount of ice ages 4+ than we’ve seen in the satellite data record. There is more 2nd and 3rd year ice though than 2008, quite a bit more.
3. 2007 saw a record minimum extent. Was the ice thinner or thicker in 2007 relative to 2008 and 2010?
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Ice was thicker in spring 2007 than in spring 2008 (based on ICESat and ERS1/2 data). In the ERS1/2 data, 2010 had thicker ice than spring 2008 but I’m not sure about spring 2007 as I don’t quite remember the values for 2007 from the plot showed by Dr. Giles showed at a recent meeting.
Well looking at cryosphere
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/arctic.seaice.color.000.png
I would say 2010 is less thick than 2008 at similar time period.
As an aside, Julienne of Troy, the face that melted a thousand icebergs … 😀
Polar scientists should have a big bushy beard though to be respectable, humph.
Andy
Funny how that works. And next year, it will be the paucity of 5+ year old ice. I say, let’s see how the recovery plays out over the next several years; even if the sea ice recovers to levels not seen since the beginning of the satellite record, it won’t necessarily signal any major change in the climate, even if some arm chair climatologists talk of a new ice age looming around the year 2030.
Damn Man! you struck common sense! 😉
It really not possible to draw conclusions from ~30 years of satellite data.
The earth had been in a warming trend from 1976 until 1999. Cooling has now begun so Arctic ice mass is starting to follow the cooling by increasing. A general growth trend in Arctic ice should continue for about 2 decades, until the time the earth starts warming again. Then it will begin to decrease, again, like it had done from the early 80’s until 2008.
It’s normal.
Joe Bastardi says colder winters are on the way:
http://www.accuweather.com/video/605456718001/future-shock-brutal-winters-ahead-from-2013-on.asp?channel=vbbastaj
La Nina should predominant El Nino for a couple more decades as El Nino had been predominant for a couple decades.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rnlC4NMLr8E
This means growing Arctic ice for decades.
Looks like Joe Bastardi is going to be close with his North Pole ice prediction. And he didn’t use global warming ‘science’ to make it.
http://www.accuweather.com/video/90250406001/latrest-on-global-ice-temps-and-trends.asp?channel=vblog_bastardi
Amino said:-
It really not possible to draw conclusions from ~30 years of satellite data.
The earth had been in a warming trend from 1976 until 1999. Cooling has now begun so Arctic ice mass is starting to follow the cooling by increasing. A general growth trend in Arctic ice should continue for about 2 decades, until the time the earth starts warming again. Then it will begin to decrease, again, like it had done from the early 80?s until 2008.
_________________________________________________________________
1. The Earth is still in a warming trend after 1999,
http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_Aug_101.gif
In fact it seems to be getting warmer after 1999, not cooler
2. The Arctic ice mass may be increasing, but if it is then it is not due to the cooler temperatures due to Earth cooling as I showed above. I’m not convinced it is increasing, I’d say it is getting less.
3. Arctic ice has been decreasing in summer since the 1950’s not 1980’s.
Andy
The graph you posted doesn’t show cooling. PDO changed at 1999 and the earth began cooling. The 1998 El Nino spike was the last of Super El Ninos for the 1976 to 1999 warming. But technically the PDO shifted in 1999 and cooling began.
It is clear you avoided the 1998 El Nino warming.. Please don’t play these games. There is obvious cooling in the data set you linked to. You should pay more attention.
UAH cooling:
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah/from:1998/to:2010/trend
AndyW,
You are the same person that said I used the word ‘closed’ when describing the Northwest Passage. But I did not use that word, and I would not have used it. You do not know what you are doing. Please point you weak attacks at someone else.
AndyW
I’m not convinced it is increasing, I’d say it is getting less.
Provide proof.
AndyW says:
September 10, 2010 at 4:50 am
1. The Earth is still in a warming trend after 1999,
That is not true.
The earth was cooling in 1999, and after. The trend is negative in the satellite record since then, not positive. The graph you link to, UAH, is a satellite record, and shows cooling in the earth now, after 1999.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/gistemp/from:1998/to:2010/trend/plot/uah/from:1998/to:2010/trend/plot/rss/from:1998/to:2010/trend
But James Hansen shows warming. Did you mean to link to a GISTemp graph instead?
I’ve made a slight alteration to your plot so that it includes all the data since 1998
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah/from:1998/to/trend
You seem to want to include the effects of the 1998 El Nino but leave out the effects of the 2009/10 El Nino.
AndyW
If you want to avoid the 1998 warming spike from El Nino then avoid the 2010 El Nino spike also.
see above.
See below.
John Finn,
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2010/09/09/julienne-stroeve-on-ice-thickness/#comment-644
Amino – you do realise that using to:2010 in woodfortrees plots cuts off the data at January 2010 (2010.0)? Try removing the “to” field, or leaving it blank, and I think you’ll see quite different results with the first 8 months of 2010 included!
Nigel Harris says:
September 10, 2010 at 9:05 am
I think you’ll see quite different results with the first 8 months of 2010 included!
I am not surprised. An definitely not quite surprised.
Is 2010 going to be the hottest year on record?
Amino says:
September 10, 2010 at 7:02 am
AndyW says:
September 10, 2010 at 4:50 am
1. The Earth is still in a warming trend after 1999,
That is not true.
The earth was cooling in 1999, and after. The trend is negative in the satellite record since then, not positive. The graph you link to, UAH, is a satellite record, and shows cooling in the earth now, after 1999.
UAH shows this year in a statistical deadheat with 1998 for the hottest year on their record (since 1979).
No it doesn’t. On a monthly basis, UAH is running well below 1998. You are incorrectly averaging in the 1998 La Nina numbers from the autumn, which bring the 1998 numbers down.
stevengoddard says:
September 10, 2010 at 7:54 pm
No it doesn’t. On a monthly basis, UAH is running well below 1998. You are incorrectly averaging in the 1998 La Nina numbers from the autumn, which bring the 1998 numbers down.
Not according to Roy Spencer (Christy has also said something similar), note that he is not averaging in the autumn numbers:
As of Julian Day 243 (end of August), the race for warmest year in the 32-year satellite period of record is still too close to call with 1998 continuing its lead by only 0.06 C:
YEAR GL
1998 +0.61
2010 +0.55
Don’t worry Phil, cooling is happening. 1998 is the champ.
John Finn says:
September 10, 2010 at 10:42 am
You seem to want to include the effects of the 1998 El Nino but leave out the effects of the 2009/10 El Nino.
In this case things are not what they appear to be.
The data set I posted included not just the warming of the 1998 El Nino but also the cooling from the La Nina that came right after it. The cooling from La Nina following the 2009/10 El Nino is still in progress. I just saw a forecast yesterday that said it could last up to 2 more years since PDO is in (-) phase. How much longer it will last no one knows for sure. Still, it’s easy to see it’s still in progress. So an ending point that includes the completed heat of a natural cycle but not the completed cooling of that cycle wouldn’t be a correct ending point, would it?
These exchanges over temperature trend are always over starting and ending points. A much fairer starting point is one that makes for a longer time period. Could we start at the Medieval Warm Period? That would be a fairer starting point than 1998, or 2000, or 1979, or 1880, wouldn’t it? If we used that starting point then any ending point in the last decade wouldn’t make much of a difference—it would still show cooling in the earth over the last ~1000 years.
I looked at what 1998.8 to 1999 looked like in UAH. There was actually warming. It’s too late here now (1:20am) to download the graph, convert the file type, put it in editing software, enlarge the area in the graph showing it, get a good estimate how much it warmed, and then link the enlarged area here for everyone to see.
UAH :
http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_Aug_101.gif
Looking at this
http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/AMSRE-SST-Global-and-Nino34-thru-Aug-18-2010.gif
it looks likely 2010.8 to 2011 is going to show cooling. But who the heck can know for sure??
UAH showing warming at end of 1998 :
http://img251.imageshack.us/img251/4236/19981999crop.jpg
area enlarged, black rectangle :
http://img225.imageshack.us/img225/5319/uahnew.png
Amino said:
September 10, 2010 at 6:41 am
AndyW
I’m not convinced it is increasing, I’d say it is getting less.
Provide proof.
______________________________________
I provide exactly the same amount of proof as you when you said
” Cooling has now begun so Arctic ice mass is starting to follow the cooling by increasing”
which is zero.
You stated a fact and provided no information, I provided a thought “I’d say” and “I am not convinced” and yet suddenly it is me who has to provide data.
You are perpetually trying to wriggle out of statements you make it seems. Stick to posting youtube video’s perhaps , you can’t go too wrong there 😀
Andy
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