My composite of NSIDC’ September 27/20 maps shows new ice in green.
There has been 25% gain since September 25, 2007.
Ice extent is at 73% of the thirty year mean.
So what is interesting about all this? Let’s remember a few expert claims :
- PIOMAS said ice was the thinnest on record this spring
- Barber says the remaining thick ice is rotten
- Hansen says it was the hottest year on record
- Hansen says that the Arctic had a very warm summer
- PIOMAS said the ice was melting very quickly in late July, and forecast a record minimum more than 10% below 2007
Obviously if all these things were true, there wouldn’t be much ice in the Arctic right now. Something is clearly wrong with the body of expert opinions.
I see from the graphs there is historically rapid growth in October. Since rapid growth is already happening I am curious where 2010 will be in the 3rd week of October. Maybe nothing dramatic will happen between now and then. But it’s interesting to watch.
Ice extent is at 73% of the thirty year mean….
Where would it be with a 1000 year mean? Wish I knew.
Preliminary JAXA extent number has us gaining 68125 km^2. That may not seem all the special, but the last two “revisions” have added about 40000 km^2 each. If something like that happens again, we could threaten to make two records.
The first is that this would be the first year with more than one single-day 100000+ km^2 gain in Sept (obviously in the JAXA record…not making any other claim than that). Heck, there are only 2 other days like that in all the other years – Sept 24, 2004, and Sept 30, 2007 (it’s possible that 2002 had a gain like that in the missing time chunk too, as that year had a very fast gain also). The second record we could see threatened is the largest overall single-day gain in Sept, which was the Sept 30, 2007 value of 125157 km^2. I doubt we’ll see the revision go that high though…but I’d say there’s a small chance. We’ll know in a few hours….
What’s funny is that we could be talking about a third day of 100000+ km^2 gains (and the second in a row) if things ended up just a bit different. The Sept 27 gain was 97500 km^2. Oh well, rounds to 100000 km^2. 🙂
-Scott
Oops, the largest single-day gain in Sept was Sept 30, 2008, not 2007 as I said in the previous comment.
-Scott