In 1934, 80% of the US experienced drought. Since then, the area of drought has declined dramatically.
Less than 20% of the country is experiencing drought at present.
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Drought On The Decline
Don’t be so sure. We have to wait and see what Tony Duncan has to say about. Let’s see how he juggles the data around and then comes back with the certitude of a global warming clone.
I don;t have anything to say about it, because I don’t know anything about this.
How’s that for certainty.
there are many posts I don’t comment on because I don’t know about the issue.
I do know that I have seen models that “predict” severe drought for many parts of the US in the next 30 or so years, but I don’t know how current US climate fits in. If someone could show me papers that predicted extreme drought in the US for now, that would certainly support your case.
Don’t worry Tony.
In 30 years time the models will still say in 30 years time.
And if it is not droughts, it will be floods.
Tony Duncan says:
November 17, 2010 at 5:13 pm
I don;t have anything to say about it, because I don’t know anything about this.
You don’t know anything about Freeman Dyson. But you talked about him anyway.
Tony Duncan
did you catch this yet?
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2010/11/15/keep-your-genius-away-from-my-religion/#comment-13045
The sooner you reply the sooner I can quit asking.
Tony Duncan
My response to your assertion that he said it in an interview:
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2010/11/15/keep-your-genius-away-from-my-religion/#comment-13556
Mr. Duncan, there are many such examples of papers and models that projected drought for the U.S. That was a key point in James Hansen’s testimony / paper to Congress in 1988. When the Southeast U.S. and California went into droughts, the news was full of references linking these to CO2-induced global warming. In reality, these droughts have been shown to be mild in comparison to past droughts, and the droughts had limited durations.
Mr. Duncan, there are many such examples of papers and models that projected drought for the U.S.
I believe Tony was asking about papers that predicted extreme drought for the US by 2010. I don’t know offhand whether there were any or not. If you do, can you provide links?
Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in Southwestern North America (Science April 2007)
Abstract: “How anthropogenic climate change will affect hydroclimate in the arid regions of southwestern North America has implications for the allocation of water resources and the course of regional development. Here we show that there is a broad consensus among climate models that this region will dry in the 21st century and that the transition to a more arid climate should already be under way. If these models are correct, the levels of aridity of the recent multiyear drought or the Dust Bowl and the 1950s droughts will become the new climatology of the American Southwest within a time frame of years to decades.”
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/316/5828/1181.abstract
OK, well, neither of the two phrases you’ve highlighted is a prediction of extreme droughts by 2010. Are there other papers?
Well Amino,
I was totally wrong. I can’t believe you caught me. I feel so humiliated, lying to all of you. Totally fabricating something in a foolish attempt to try to fool all you intelligent insightful thoughtful people.
I admit I totally made up that there was a podcast interview with Freeman Dyson. I hope that mean I am not banned and can make it up to all of you somehow.
BTW there is an iTUNES U interview of Freeman Dyson from 11/2/10 From Yale. You can search Climate change Dyson as I did to get it, AMAZINGLY he says the exact same things in this one as the podcast one that I made up.
2:00 “I am not so interested in Global warming. I don’t claim to be an expert I never did.
2:50. my objections to global warming propaganda are not so much about the technical facts, about which I don’t know much, but the way those people behave….and intolerance to criticism.
5:11-35 after saying that Mann and his team wouldn’t allow anyone to look at the data behind the “hockey stick” paper, “I don’t claim to have examined it myself”
6:00 asked whether he know of any subsequent criticisms that had been addressed. “I simply don’t know. I could be wrong about that”
6:40- 7:00. So it’s a sense you, not that you have refuted any particular assertions “No, but let me get onto the more general. The difference between me and the experts is i think I have a much wider view of the whole subject”
7:00 involved in climate research in the 70’s but not since then.
There is another 20 minutes, but I actually have other things to do now.
I will say that I mischaracterized him when I said he knew NOTHING about climate science, but it is very clear in this not-quite-podcast, that he feels he does not need to know very much about it.
Dyson is one of the great scientists of the 20th Century. Dirac is my favorite, but he didn’t get robbed of a nobel like Dyson, just nobody remembers him anymore.
Dyson makes some reasonable points. he is a very intelligent person, with an amazing ability to grasp and work with ideas that few have. But he repeats over and over that he is not an expert, he doesn’t know details, and he makes assumptions about what climate scientists are doing that are at odds with what I know. So while I am interested in his views, I do not consider them informed enough to accept the judgements he makes.
Again I apologize for lying and saying it was a podcast, when it was from iTunes U.
Drought being less severe now doesn’t apply to modern day global warming. Global warming is happening now and man is causing it.
😉
Only ignoramuses would go around claiming the droughts and weather would necessarily have to be more severe now for manmade global warming to be true. Weather may or may not be more severe. Droughts may or may not be more severe. Manmade global warming is happening. Stop telling everyone about data that shows things like this post is saying. To keep doing that is spamming. It is misrepresenting the truth of global warming. And it is cruel to the people who don’t know better.
ok, sarcasm off now
WOW!
Extereme drought reported due to a lack of hurricane landfalls in the Gulf that would have tracked along the Mississippi River waterway. The same region that should see increased precipitation because of increased hurricane landfalls along the Gulf!
I know the PDI has “Some” value but they are blowing it all out of proportion.
Hmm, this seems to imply some places are dryer while others are wetter! Weird, how that happens.
This only reports degrees of dryness compared to averages of a set base period in specific regions. What you see is the result of smoothing to make it easier on the eyes.
This only has meaning to those concerned with soil moisture content and those wanting to alarm others. As a farmer I look at my region and say: OK! So what?
Steven:
For a more dramatic using proxy data from the 1200 to 1600 period would be better.
The drought is “broken” in Australia as well.
At its height..it was often blamed on “global warming”..especially by the ABC.
The same ABC now talks about the drought ending, but never mentions a thing about “global warming” in the same drought breaking stories..
funny that… 🙂
Thought I was looking at a sunspot graph for a minute…
http://sc25.com/attachments/database/True%20Stetson__412x365.jpg
In 1937 the memorably named scientists H. True Stetson, of MIT and Harvard, came up with new evidence – Rabbit skins. The pelt records of the Hudson Bay Company showed remarkable variations in the number of Fox, Lynx and Rabbit taken over periods of ten to eleven years. Nearly every peak corresponded “quite closely” with the scarcity of spots. “If sunspots have anything to do with Rabbit popultion,” Dr. Stetson continued, “and sunspot years have been favorable for tree growth, one might wonder why Rabbits appear most numerous near sunspot minima and most scarce near sunspot maxima”.
http://sc25.com/?id=259
Drought is a really interesting topic. It would be interesting to discuss the underlying reasons for drought. What I’ve noticed is that we don’t get rain so long as high pressure systems are prevailing in our area. It is a lot hotter because there are no clouds or rain to cool things off. Once the high pressure system is replaced by a low pressure system, we get clouds and rain and the temps go down. It is surprising that there is much doubt about whether clouds have a net cooling or warming effect.