I’m not sure we know yet but in late December Ch4 showed a 1C degree drop over a 4 day period and when it got out on the web, Spencer posted that Ch4 was not accurate and to only use Ch5 as an accurate indicator.
Dr. Spencer has posted at his website the problems with Ch4:
The rest of the channels come from the AMSU on the 12 year old NOAA-15 satellite, WHICH IS NOW EXPERIENCING LARGE AMOUNTS OF MISSING DATA AS OF AROUND DECEMBER 20, 2010. This is why some of you have noted exceptionally large temperature changes in late December. While we wait for NOAA to investigate, it seems like more than coincidence that the NOAA-15 AMSU status report had a December 17 notice that the AMSU scan motor position was being reported incorrectly due to a bit error.
The Eichler et al. 2008 GRL study of the relation of sunspot number with ice core temperature reconstruction from the Altai glacier demonstrated a twenty year lag between sunspot decrease and a corresponding temperature decrease. If we use 1990 for the beginning of the sunspot decrease that is continuing today then we can conclude that at least twenty more years of cooling has begun. http://lch.web.psi.ch/files/Publikationen/analytic/Eichleretal_GRL2009.pdf
While the paper claims only 50 % of the recent warming is due to solar, the amount shown for the core is twice the global average. Therefore the correlation is right on for global temps.
“You folks who are screaming and yelling global warming is causing all this mayhem had better look at what has been going on for the PAST SIX MONTHS when all this has been breaking loose. The global temperature is dropping like a rock, the running 30-day mean is down to normal, the January temperature so far is now down to -.1 C, which if it continues at this pace means we have dropped off .7 C since the summer.
Now what do you think is going to happen when there is COOLING like that? ”
We will see normal weather fluctuations just like have been observed since I was born it the mid 40s and mot likely similar to what has been observed since humans took time to watch the weather. It gets warm and it gets cold!
I’ve calculated about +0.04C globally compared to the 1980-2009 base-period in the JRA25-reanalysis, which is a pretty good indication of the global surface temperature.
We all knew this would happen. I wonder when the whiz kids and their tame politicians will admit they made a mistake, a BIG mistake. I can’t see the MSM admitting fault though. The were simply misled and they don’t have any investigative journalists anymore.
La Nina is still going. Temps should continue to follow it. How far down is the interesting part. Joe Bastardi thinks anomaly will go negative as far as, maybe farther than, the La Nina that followed the 1998 El Nino.
That graph is based on air temperatures only correct? I’ve heard it’s more accurate to use sea surface temperature to measure warming/cooling. So how much weight should I put into this?
It is La Nina my friend… but if they come more frequent like in the 1940-1970 era then some global warming will indeed go down the drain. But don’t pop the champagne yet.
It was autumn, and the Red Indians on the remote reservation asked their new Chief if the winter was going to be cold or mild.
Since he was a Red Indian Chief in a modern society, he had never been taught the old secrets, and when he looked at the sky, he couldn’t tell what the weather was going to be.
Nevertheless, to be on the safe side, he replied to his tribe that the winter was indeed going to be cold and that the members of the village should collect wood to be prepared.
But also being a practical leader, after several days he got an idea.
He went to the phone booth, called the National Weather Service and asked “Is the coming winter going to be cold?”
“It looks like this winter is going to be quite cold indeed,” the meteorologist at the weather service responded.
So the Chief went back to his people and told them to collect even more wood in order to be prepared. A week later, he called the National Weather Service again.
“Is it going to be a very cold winter?” “Yes,” the man at National Weather Service again replied,
“It’s definitely going to be a very cold winter.”
The Chief again went back to his people and ordered them to collect every scrap of wood they could find.
Two weeks later, he called the National Weather Service again.
“Are you absolutely sure that the winter is going to be very cold?” “Absolutely,” the man replied. “It’s going to be one of the coldest winters ever.”
“How can you be so sure?” the Chief asked.
The weatherman replied, “The Red Indians are collecting wood like crazy.”
Hello I don’t know if true, but i heard that one of the reasons temps have gone up as much as they have is because during the last cold Pdo the ocean trapped the solar energy coming from the sun.The sun was in a grand maximum and the ocean was in cold phase so it released the solar energy from the deep oceans by making more el ninos. The theory being that the solar energy coming from the sun when its activity ramped up could’nt be released much till the oceans went in warm mode.I wonder if this is true or not just asking.
woops, think of the funding!
BTW, what’s wrong with Ch 04?
I prefer BBC2
I’m not sure we know yet but in late December Ch4 showed a 1C degree drop over a 4 day period and when it got out on the web, Spencer posted that Ch4 was not accurate and to only use Ch5 as an accurate indicator.
Dr. Spencer has posted at his website the problems with Ch4:
The rest of the channels come from the AMSU on the 12 year old NOAA-15 satellite, WHICH IS NOW EXPERIENCING LARGE AMOUNTS OF MISSING DATA AS OF AROUND DECEMBER 20, 2010. This is why some of you have noted exceptionally large temperature changes in late December. While we wait for NOAA to investigate, it seems like more than coincidence that the NOAA-15 AMSU status report had a December 17 notice that the AMSU scan motor position was being reported incorrectly due to a bit error.
Extrapolating this trend, which many esteemed scienticians have shown is the right thing to do, the next ice age should be here within a decade or so.
A Dalton?
I will have to ask them as they live down the road!
The Eichler et al. 2008 GRL study of the relation of sunspot number with ice core temperature reconstruction from the Altai glacier demonstrated a twenty year lag between sunspot decrease and a corresponding temperature decrease. If we use 1990 for the beginning of the sunspot decrease that is continuing today then we can conclude that at least twenty more years of cooling has begun.
http://lch.web.psi.ch/files/Publikationen/analytic/Eichleretal_GRL2009.pdf
While the paper claims only 50 % of the recent warming is due to solar, the amount shown for the core is twice the global average. Therefore the correlation is right on for global temps.
“You folks who are screaming and yelling global warming is causing all this mayhem had better look at what has been going on for the PAST SIX MONTHS when all this has been breaking loose. The global temperature is dropping like a rock, the running 30-day mean is down to normal, the January temperature so far is now down to -.1 C, which if it continues at this pace means we have dropped off .7 C since the summer.
Now what do you think is going to happen when there is COOLING like that? ”
http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp?partner=accuweather
We will see normal weather fluctuations just like have been observed since I was born it the mid 40s and mot likely similar to what has been observed since humans took time to watch the weather. It gets warm and it gets cold!
Dang, I was starting to get used to the warming earth.
Chinook by next week thankfully…
I’ve calculated about +0.04C globally compared to the 1980-2009 base-period in the JRA25-reanalysis, which is a pretty good indication of the global surface temperature.
http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/jra25/2011/jra25_2011_12.png
Thanks Ryan.
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What a bunch of idiots!
Are you walking through a house of mirrors?
Oh that was great Mike 😀
We all knew this would happen. I wonder when the whiz kids and their tame politicians will admit they made a mistake, a BIG mistake. I can’t see the MSM admitting fault though. The were simply misled and they don’t have any investigative journalists anymore.
Piers Corbyn has this post as a tweet. What he is pointing out is the rapid drop this year was a forecast he made.
http://twitter.com/Piers_Corbyn
La Nina is still going. Temps should continue to follow it. How far down is the interesting part. Joe Bastardi thinks anomaly will go negative as far as, maybe farther than, the La Nina that followed the 1998 El Nino.
http://www.accuweather.com/video/748914366001/global-temps-have-dropped-below-running-means-in-jan.asp?channel=vbbastaj
That graph is based on air temperatures only correct? I’ve heard it’s more accurate to use sea surface temperature to measure warming/cooling. So how much weight should I put into this?
It is La Nina my friend… but if they come more frequent like in the 1940-1970 era then some global warming will indeed go down the drain. But don’t pop the champagne yet.
Red Indians MET-Story
It was autumn, and the Red Indians on the remote reservation asked their new Chief if the winter was going to be cold or mild.
Since he was a Red Indian Chief in a modern society, he had never been taught the old secrets, and when he looked at the sky, he couldn’t tell what the weather was going to be.
Nevertheless, to be on the safe side, he replied to his tribe that the winter was indeed going to be cold and that the members of the village should collect wood to be prepared.
But also being a practical leader, after several days he got an idea.
He went to the phone booth, called the National Weather Service and asked “Is the coming winter going to be cold?”
“It looks like this winter is going to be quite cold indeed,” the meteorologist at the weather service responded.
So the Chief went back to his people and told them to collect even more wood in order to be prepared. A week later, he called the National Weather Service again.
“Is it going to be a very cold winter?” “Yes,” the man at National Weather Service again replied,
“It’s definitely going to be a very cold winter.”
The Chief again went back to his people and ordered them to collect every scrap of wood they could find.
Two weeks later, he called the National Weather Service again.
“Are you absolutely sure that the winter is going to be very cold?” “Absolutely,” the man replied. “It’s going to be one of the coldest winters ever.”
“How can you be so sure?” the Chief asked.
The weatherman replied, “The Red Indians are collecting wood like crazy.”
Hello I don’t know if true, but i heard that one of the reasons temps have gone up as much as they have is because during the last cold Pdo the ocean trapped the solar energy coming from the sun.The sun was in a grand maximum and the ocean was in cold phase so it released the solar energy from the deep oceans by making more el ninos. The theory being that the solar energy coming from the sun when its activity ramped up could’nt be released much till the oceans went in warm mode.I wonder if this is true or not just asking.
Makes sense