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… the most current United States Global Change Reserch Program report on the Southwest has this to say:
Droughts are a long-standing feature of the Southwest’s climate. The droughts of the last 110 years pale in comparison to some of the decades-long “megadroughts” that the region has experienced over the last 2000 years.During the closing decades of the 1500s, for example, major droughts gripped parts of the Southwest.These droughts sharply reduced the flow of the Colorado River and the all-important Sierra Nevada headwaters for California, and dried out the region as a whole. As of 2009, much of the Southwest remains in a drought that began around 1999.
This event is the most severe western drought of the last 110 years, and is being exacerbated by record warming.Over this century, projections point to an increasing probability of drought for the region. Many aspects of these projections, including a northward shift in winter and spring storm tracks, are consistent with observed trends over recent decades. Thus, the most likely future for the Southwest is a substantially drier one (although there is presently no consensus on how the region’s summer monsoon [rainy season] might change in the future). Combined with the historical record of severe droughts and the current uncertainty regarding the exact causes and drivers of these past events, the Southwest must be prepared for droughts that could potentially result from multiple causes.
[Wait there is always the obligatory appendage of “coulds”, “mights”, and “beliefs” regarding CAGWC & and this excerpt concludes…]
The combined effects of natural climate variability and human-induced climate change could turn out to be a devastating “one-two punch” for the region.
Regional Climate Impacts: Southwest – Page 2 of 6
http://downloads.globalchange.gov/usimpacts/pdfs/southwest.pdf