NASA : Climate Models Can’t Forecast Arctic Ice

8 Responses to NASA : Climate Models Can’t Forecast Arctic Ice

1. Baa Humbug says:

   February 15, 2011 at 9:52 am

   James will be banging on their door any minute now.

   Reply
2. Mike Davis says:

   February 15, 2011 at 1:07 pm

   This is a start to admitting that the models do not get any regional conditions “Right”. It is a Wrong Method, Right Answer situation. Wild Ass Guesses and not anything related to science. If you throw enough mud at the wall some of it will stick!
   GIGO Rules in Climatology and NASA is admitting it!

   Reply
3. Mike Davis says:

   February 15, 2011 at 1:10 pm

   Maybe we will stop hearing from the CLB at NASA when they go back to their original mission of Space Exploration and stop wasting money we no longer can afford to spend on “Fantasy” What if scenarios!

   Reply
   • Paul in Sweden says:

     February 15, 2011 at 4:44 pm

     +10 for Mike

     NASA needs to go back to SPACE. All redundant United States climate research needs to be eliminated and the remainder of the programs carefully audited.

     Reply
4. Craig Dillon says:

   March 31, 2011 at 4:07 pm

   Disagree. The amount of money spent on analyzing the data is miniscule. NOAA, NSIDC, Naval PostGraduate School, USNAVY, are among the many government agencies looking at the Arctic and Climate Change. For me, it was the US Navy’s Arctic Ice thickness data from 1980 to 1999, that first made me convinced that something very serious was happening. [The data showed the average ice thickness had dropped from 17′ to 9′ in those years. A simple extrapolation indicated an ice free Arctic summer by 2017. That simple extrapolation done in 2001 has shown to be a better predictor than the climate models. At the time, the climate models were indicating an ice free summer Arctic by 2100.]

   How the deniers can say that the ice is coming back, I have no idea. I live in Chicago, and Lake Michigan is much warmer than it used to be. The water is warm to swim in during the summer — it used to be always cold. An ice breaker is no longer needed to open up the shipping lanes in the spring. GW is real, and you can see it if you look.

   CO2 is at 391ppm, and still rising. It will be at 393ppm at the end of 2011. And that just means more GW. It really is very simple.

   Reply
   • stevengoddard says:

     March 31, 2011 at 4:21 pm

     Between 1988 and 1996, most of the multi-year ice blew out of the Arctic and melted in the North Atlantic. This can be seen clearly in NSIDC animations. Did you swim in Lake Michigan during the 1930s?

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   • Baa Humbug says:

     March 31, 2011 at 5:03 pm

     Hey Craig Dill, Mother nature doesn’t do simple extrapolations.

     Are you saying the Arctic will be ice free by the summer of 2017? How much would you like to bet?

     Ever read history? Browse through some of the news clippings Steve has been unearthing, LEARN SOMETHING.
     If I’m a denier, you’re a lemming.

     Reply
   • suyts says:

     March 31, 2011 at 5:04 pm

     Craig, do you think you may be conflating two separate dynamics? Last I checked, the Great Lakes weren’t in the arctic. Have you compared recent ice with 2007?

     How’s this for a simple extrapolation. Click here, and tell me what the temp will be when co2 ppm goes to 400. Please note the scaling and offset to properly read the graph. http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:2001/scale:50/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:2001/trend/scale:50/plot/esrl-co2/from:2001/offset:-348/plot/esrl-co2/from:2001/trend/offset:-348

     Reply