NOAA has a different opinion.
I believe the odds for a two-year event remain well above 50%, made even more likely by the continued unabated strength in various ENSO indices.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/
Disrupting the Borg is expensive and time consuming!
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lol, well, I’d be perfectly happy arguing the skeptic position from a warmer location. Did I mention that I hated the cold? Sadly, I’m preparing for another fairly harsh winter next year. We should know fairly soon if La Nina is going to stay with us for a while.
Last four winters have been harsh here. ENSO doesn’t seem to have much to do with it.
Maybe the sun has a little to do with it? Just sayin’. After the recent dead cat bounce while Sol visited the W.C., it looks like the sun is turning over and pulling the blankets up to its ears.
Its strange, back in the 80s, I could always guarantee that the weather from your area, Colo., would matriculate to SE Kansas. In other words, if you got cold, so would we, snow, the same. It changed for the last decade or so. This year, its back to if you get cooler temps, so do we, if you get snow, so do we. The jet stream, but what causes that to move around……..
who knows a lullaby could help…
keep in mind that this is masterbedwetter, who can not mention even a tropical depression without using the word slammed…………
The latest maps does show a weakening of the La-Nina phase.
Here is the link to Jeff’s article:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1749
“But in the last few weeks, SSTs in the Equatorial Pacific have undergone a modest warm-up, and these temperatures are now about 1.2°C below average. A region of above-average warmth has appeared immediately adjacent to the coast of South America–often a harbinger of the end to a La Niña event. An animation of SSTs since late November shows this developing warm tongue nicely. Springtime is the most common time for a La Niña event to end; since 1950, half of all La Niñas ended in March, April, or May. The weakness displayed by the current La Niña event has prompted NOAA’s Climate Predictions Center to give a 50% chance that La Niña will be gone by June.”
Why don’t they ever wish El Nino’s go away quickly?
Joe Romm, disseminae de propagandae.
Note the “may be”. That way they can say they didn’t predict it would.
Having said that, I’ll take Corbyn over Masters any day.