http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/aug/10/climatechange.arctic
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Steve, do you have any prediciton about what the min will be for sea ice this summer?
I’m not going there. Ice extent can change by 500,000 km^2 from a few days of wind. It is a largely meaningless metric.
My god, Serreze is a bedwetting little drama queen isn’t he? I have this image in my mind of a Clueless (the movie) style valley girl prancing through the mall yapping on her cellphone: “OMG, really? Like, we’re sooooo screwwwwed. We’re definitely gonna drown, ya know. Okay then, buh bye!“.
Jeez Mark! Lose the skirt and grow a pair. Seriously.
Personally I wish it would all melt completely and not just for a short period in the NH summer. Then when sea levels do not rise (it’s sea ice, ya know), and temps are exactly the same and life proceeds as normal, well, we’ll then have to decide how to punish these chicken littles in a meaningful way.
I like how this article shortens their ‘climate’ length to a week. 🙂
You can always find the name Mark Surreze in these stories. Oh, oh, but he doesn’t make predictions.
The words used to describe normal summer melt season is as if they took lessons from third rate terror movies or they were trying to describe a major earthquake.
The wind is the big player in this drama which is more a comedy the way it is being promoted.
If you fully read the article, you will note that Serreze does not say no ice by 2013. That was said by 1 scientist, Dr. Maslowski. Another example of poor journalism. Mark Serreze is correct though, the Arctic sea ice has declined faster than any of the climate models have been able to predict.
I’m curious, what statement from Serreze in the article do you all disagree with?
Hi Julienne
I am afraid we have to put up with a lot of poor journalism from the Guardian here in the UK. The Guardian along with the BBC will do everything they can to exaggerate , mislead and even lie about any events which back up their religious belief in global warming, while ignoring any facts which inconveniently cast doubt.
My view about Mark is that he has the same built in belief in AGW and refuses to countenance any other explanations for climatic events. ( I will only be too pleased if you can show me I am wrong here).
Even the article mentions that storms have brought warm air upto the Arctic causing much of the ice to melt. Also Steve will provide plenty of evidence that much of the loss of Summer ice in recent years is due to wind and currents pushing the ice out into the Atlantic.
And of course even Mark admits his models don’t work!
I think we all need to admit that we still know very little about what makes our climate tick and work towards expanding our knowlege rather than simply jumping on the AGW bandwagon.
Hey Paul…I agree we have to put up with a lot of poor journalism, which I hope is changing. Many times I get a chance to see the article now before it goes into print so that I can make sure the journalist got it right. It’s something I ask for now, since I have learned the hard way that they may try to spin the story.
Just so you know, Mark Serreze is not a modeler, instead he works with observational data. Mark believes natural climate variability remains important, but he does also believe that human activities are leading to a background warming signal on top of the natural variability.
While there is evidence of the importance of winds moving the ice out of the Arctic basin or compacting it towards the pole (and NSIDC does not refute that), there is also evidence of warmer atmospheric and ocean temperatures. I have a paper in press that is a synthesis paper that pulls together everything we currently know about the changes happening in the Arctic sea ice. Once that is published I will send Steve a copy and he can report on it in his blog…
cheers,Julienne
Correct? The problem Julienne is that Serreze did not say anything to be correct about. That is a fact free statement. For example:
It is false news, a press release about nothing, a press release probably paid for by we the taxpayers (can you confirm or deny?). No-one cares about any Climate Models except for you folks. Would I care about the National Weather Service 3-day models? Yes. Would I care about the NWS 7-day models? Sometimes. Would I care about a 180-day
modelwild-assed guess? Hell no. Needless to say, end of century predictions cause laughter (and sadness). Why would anyone care when a climate alarmist says that sea ice declined faster than his expectations? Do you believe that I should care?Seriously, I see you have been popping in here from time to time, a genuine employee of NSIDC, and I am sure many people would love to have the opportunity to ask some questions and get some official answers (I have several).
Problem is, this is a rapidly moving blogsite and thus it is difficult to have a thread with ongoing discussion (question and answer, followup and answer, etc). Perhaps you can ask Steve to allow you a thread post and see what happens? Steve might pin the thread to the top for a bit if possible.