December 15, 2009
There are many kinds of truth. Al Gore was poleaxed by an inconvenient one yesterday.
The former US Vice-President, who became an unlikely figurehead for the green movement after narrating the Oscar-winning documentary An Inconvenient Truth, became entangled in a new climate change “spin” row.
Mr Gore, speaking at the Copenhagen climate change summit, stated the latest research showed that the Arctic could be completely ice-free in five years.
In his speech, Mr Gore told the conference: “These figures are fresh. Some of the models suggest to Dr [Wieslav] Maslowski that there is a 75 per cent chance that the entire north polar ice cap, during the summer months, could be completely ice-free within five to seven years.”
Disrupting the Borg is expensive and time consuming!
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Prove he’s wrong 😉
Andy
I will be happy to wait 3 years.
Could actually means they are making a wild ass guess. While “Some” models show the ice Could do one thing other models sow the ice COULD do something else.
You could be hit by a bus tomorrow or some time in the next 30 years. There is a greater possibility of that happening than these model predictions being correct!
I predict that he will be proven wrong. I predict he will keep pushing back the date until the day he dies. I predict that I will be proven correct in my predictions. Soooooo boring! Yaaaaaawn!
Hey Steven, you shouldn’t hide the best part…
““It’s unclear to me how this figure was arrived at,” Dr Maslowski said. “I would never try to estimate likelihood at anything as exact as this.””
Some people may have forgotten this sweet episode. We are supposed to forget it, aren’t we?
Bottom line, Al just made it up. Massaged the numbers.
Moral: Don’t get your science from Al Gore, Time, Newsweek or other secondary sources. Read the peer reviewed research papers.
The 2011 data shows the sea ice below and above the 2007 data.
The surprise is that the Arctic sea ice extend of April is more than in 2007.
It’s right now in the grey area of the 1979-2000 average +- 2 standard deviation.
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png
Of course the figures are fresh.. they’re fresh every week with a new “prediction” from a different (or sometimes the same) group of “experts”..
When it comes to climate predictions an adulterated quote about terrorism seems appropriate – the defenders (sceptics) have to get it right every time, the terrorists (warmists) only need to be lucky once.
Never a truer word said. You are spot on. They have been given a free pass to make never ending predictions that continue to fail and the MSM largely turns a blind eye. Why?
With the melt season off to a very slow start and much of the ice thicker than usual, it appears highly unlikely that the ice is going away anytime soon.
Yet Warmists are only too happy for an ice free Arctic. Don’t they care about the polar bears? Or is it that they can’t stand to face the sceptics after AGW has been falsified. Just 14 more years of statistically non-significant warming to go. [30+ years = climate].
In the meantime winters are not warmer, sea level rise is not picking up, coral island atolls have increased land area, Bangladesh has increased land area, ACE hurricane index is at a 30 year low, water vapour is in decline (in a warming world!!!) and so on……………………………….