15 August, 2005
Research by Peter Stott of the Hadley centre for climate prediction, and Nikolaos Christidis of Oxford University, suggests there is a mounting risk of similar extreme events within decades.
Stott said: “2003 was a foretaste. Heatwaves will become more intense and longer lasting. The 2003 summer could become the norm by the middle of the century.”Stott’s research suggests that very hot summer days are likely to become more extreme in the UK, with peak temperatures rising from about 35C to 42C (95 to 108F) by the middle of the century. It also shows there has been a mean average increase of about 1C for the warmest nights between 1950 and 2000. The bonus is that deaths from the cold are now practically unknown.
Good call Peter :
” The bonus is that deaths from the cold are now practically unknown.”in the Summer.
Don’t these UK guys get burned every year by forecasting a hot summer for their foggy nation ?
well, somebody did get “burned” by climate change: Climate Change Minister Resigns “Because Of The Extremities Of The Climate”
He got “Iced”, proving once again that continuing expectations of mild winters, and focusing on the vagaries of climate, rather
than the vicissitudes of weather, is bad policy.
Is the MET predicting another “barbeque summer” this year?
Actually this one is Hadley.
And they are throwing the long ball for mid century, predicting that London will soon have the climate of Las Vegas, but not soon enough to affect their pensions, should their typical scary press release prove inaccurate.
So if you talk like an idiot about the weather you can become a someone in global warming.
From the Article – “In the 1980s it was common to have 150,000 cold-related deaths in a winter.”
According to the Nat Off Stats – in the 1980’s typically 30-50,000 excess winter deaths
for England and Wales – where most of the UK population is.
From the Article – “Now the deaths are down to about 20,000 a year.”
According to the Nat Off Stats – now they’re around 20 – 35,000 excess winter deaths
for England and Wales.
So, “Peter Stott of the Hadley centre for climate prediction” is clearly wildly exaggerating here, and de-emphasising there. Is that what they teach real scientists to do?
I made a graph, with a link to the data, here –
http://www.flickr.com/photos/7360644@N07/5770383378/
Well it’s been a BBQ Spring so far in the UK, not much rainfall and lots of sunshine, sadly the Met Office did not predict it with a newsworthy statement, once bitten twice shy.
Current river flows in the UK show a game of two halves, between NW and Wales and the rest of the land.
http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/static/documents/Research/WE_240511.pdf
Normally April is showery and May has the good weather as the Azores high gets into swing, but April was lovely this year, so hosepipe ban no doubt soon!
Andy
Here in London, yes it’s been dry and sunny for much of April and May; but what AndyW omits to mention is that it has NOT been warm!
Today it’s unpleasantly cool – and overcast. I will NOT be wearing shorts today, I wear a jacket when outdoors, and there are no last minute plans for a barbecue!
Tomorrow it’s a Public Holiday – and it’s going to rain.
Hi Andy
Up here in Sheffield the spring has been sunny but for the most part cool. This week temperatures are back down to March levels at around 50F. ( About 15C in Kent degrees!!)
Here in East Anglia, April and the first week in May were exceptionally warm and dry (cold nights though), but since then the weather has regressed to cool, damp and windy.
Summer has arrived early this year!