1951 : MIT Scientist Correctly Predicted Global Cooling – Based On Sunspots

9 Responses to 1951 : MIT Scientist Correctly Predicted Global Cooling – Based On Sunspots

1. tallbloke says:

   June 18, 2011 at 9:38 am

   Hi Steve,
   Well, the solar forecast Willet made didn’t pan out too well. Cycle 19 peaked in 1958 and was the highest cycle ever recorded, although Leif Svalgaard thinks Waldmeier, who was in charge of the sunspot count, overcounted by 20% or so.

   The PDO hit rock bottom in 1951, so his forecast for cooler summers and colder winters worked out ok, though most of the postwar fall in temp had already occurred. The big oceanic oscillations have strong effects on global temperaure, so the solar signal is often masked by them, and this leads to incorrect conclusions about the Sun’s influence on climate. Ultimately, it’s activity levels are helping with driving the oceanic oscillations anyway, though the correlataion is non-obvious at decadal timescales.

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   • Jimbo Wales says:

     June 19, 2011 at 8:02 pm

     Obviously you’ve misread the article. I suggest you go back and re-read it, and edit your post accordingly, before being mocked into submission.

     Reply
   • Harpo says:

     June 20, 2011 at 5:43 am

     Tallbloke, where do you think the energy that drives the PDO and “The big oceanic oscillations [that] have strong effects on global temperature” comes from?

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   • suyts says:

     June 20, 2011 at 6:09 am

     TB, thanks for popping by and adding your thoughts.

     @ Harpo……while TB doesn’t need my help, ……..TB said, “Ultimately, it’s[the sun’s] activity levels are helping with driving the oceanic oscillations anyway, though the correlataion is non-obvious at decadal timescales.”

     He’s got a nice website……..it’s worth a visit or two.

     Reply
     • Harpo says:

       June 20, 2011 at 6:51 am

       Fair call. I misunderstood “it’s activity levels”. If that refers to the sun then that was my point. I’ll check out his site.

       Reply
2. Andy WeissDC says:

   June 18, 2011 at 12:50 pm

   Dr. Willett hit the ball out of the park with his long range forecasts. After a mild spell of weather in the early 1950’s, he predicted cooling in the 1960’s, culminating a a period of “climatic stress” in the late 1970’s, with very severe winters almost leading up to an Ice Age.

   Willitt also predicted during the cold period that temperatures would moderate late in the 20th Century. His forecasts had almost uncanny accuracy.

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3. Jeff Rambo says:

   June 19, 2011 at 4:24 pm

   Here you Go !!!!!Good Reading!!!!!!

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4. Lawrie Ayres says:

   June 20, 2011 at 7:30 am

   It would seem history provides a better guide to the future than computer models. Strangely man kind has a bad habit of re-inventing the wheel because they don’t observe the lessons of history. No wonder geologists reject the AGW hypothesis.

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