“Holy bargain basements, Batman!” The Arctic is out of ice!
IQALUIT — New research from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology says the most recent global climate report “fails to capture trends in Arctic sea-ice thinning and drift,” and in some cases “substantially underestimates these trends.”
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, released in 2007, forecast an ice-free Arctic summer by 2100.
But that might happen much earlier, according to research by Pierre Rampal from MIT’s department of Earth, Atmosphere and Planetary Sciences, says an MIT news release on research to be published in the Journal of Geophysical Research — Oceans.
“..released in 2007, forecast an ice-free Arctic summer by 2100..”
Wow.. by 93 years. That’s a bold statement.
“But that might happen much earlier, according to research by Pierre Rampal..”
Serreze must be some kind of hero to Rampal.
Steve could you put an X where those idiots are rowing their boat in the Arctic? TIA
I think they are probably walking by now.
They’ll probably need to be rescued before long. I can speculate too 🙂
Oh dear … it’s worse than we thouht ….
In 30% of cases, there was a substantial underestimation. The remaining cases were combination of correct and occasional overestimation* according to an extensive survey of the report.
*see notes** on pp 2395-2408 inclusive.
** note summarized on pp 6044, 6046***, 6047, & 6741
*** oh right, you’re actually following the notes? Uh, well it breaks down into 30% underestimation, 40% substantially correct estimation, & 30% overestimation. Clearly doomed, right?
Any prediction made 93 years out in time cannot be proved or disproved, so stop wasting everybody’s time.
About Pierre Rampal…
“My research revolved around the understanding of the Arctic sea ice evolution and its role in the regional to global climate system. During my thesis, I was focused on the characterization of kinematics and dynamics of Arctic sea ice, and the establishment of new basis for a new modeling framework of sea ice. Now, and as a part of the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO), I work on sea ice data assimilation in the state-of-the-art general circulation model of the MIT.”
What is ‘kinematics’?
“Kinematics is the branch of classical mechanics that describes the motion of bodies (objects) and systems (groups of objects) without consideration of the forces that cause the motion.”
Wouldn’t this be a better approach..?
“Kinematics is not to be confused with another branch of classical mechanics: analytical dynamics (the study of the relationship between the motion of objects and its causes.”
How does Pierre make this prediction without knowledge of forcings? Tarot cards?
I wonder if maybe it evolved from older, less sophisticated forms of ice. Do you think the fossil record would show ice with tails or gills?
Frozen Primordial ooze?