iphone.anomaly.arctic.png (512×412)
There is more Arctic ice area today than there was on the same date in 1989.
Disrupting the Borg is expensive and time consuming!
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For the curious, if one uses the full 1979-2011 CT data set, the anomaly for 04/25/2012 is -39244 km^2. This is 0.077 std deviations below the average for that date.
Just keep in mind it’s only one day. I think everyone here agrees that we’ll see larger anomalies relative to that baseline once the summer rolls around. The bigger question is how values will compare to more recent years near the minimum. Still, it’s always nice to remember that the albedo feedback right now is vastly larger than in September, where it’s tiny. Personally, I think the albedo feedback declarations are considerably overstated myself…particularly late in the season like that.
-Scott
I for one do not agree, because we are not able to see into the future to see what tomorrow will bring. The past has shown that conditions in that region change drastically with shifts in the regional ocean atmosphere weather pattern. This year could also be 1979 all over again, or anywhere in between. Long term it is past time for the pattern to shift and there are indications the pattern has shifted. It is time for the anomaly to go positive relative to the base line. The albedo you speak of is only a bit player in that region. Wind and current patterns are the largest factors that determine ice conditions throughout the year.
Interesting graph at Canadian Cryosphere. Time did not begin in 1979. The “Seasonal Trends in Sea Ice Extent” graph goes back to 1950. Does anyone have solid graphs going back further? I would like to see the most recent 15 year upswing.
http://www.socc.ca/cms/en/seaIce/pastSeaIce.aspx
Thanks Steve for the historical archive and posting those pesky annoying facts.
GFS weather model has Alaska turning bitter cold as we enter May. This morning, 2 stations in Nunavut were -19 F, -11 in Siberia. -2 at Churchill and +10 down the the south shore of Hudson Bay. Even in these peripheral areas, the melt season is off to a very slow start.
Funny I do not hear all the hoopla from Scientific American, Time, NY Times, Nature, New Scientist, etc., etc.
I suppose they just miss the publication date for this. Maybe in the next editions, eh?
I wonder when the anomaly will be positive. If you see the temperatures in the Arctic it gives the impression of a strong cooling:
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
Just take a look at the Bering See. That’s crazy!
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom_new.gif