August 22, 2011
Georgia and the Carolinas are increasingly looking like they could take a direct hit from Hurricane Irene, possibly as a Category 3 storm containing winds of 115 miles per hour or higher. Before that happens, however, South Florida is almost a certainty to get hit, either directly or indirectly, with storm conditions mounting by Thursday.
23 August 2011
Category 2 Irene is expected to become still more ferocious, possibly increasing to a Category 4 before hitting Florida and North and South Carolina at the weekend.
If you bet on every horse in the race, there is a very high probability that you will hold a winning ticket.
That is exactly what NOAA did with hurricane tropical storm Irene. At one time or other, NOAA bet on landfall at every state on the east coast. Note too that they made numerous forecasts for a major hurricane in the Carolinas.
After TS Irene did make landfall, NOAA told us that they got the forecast right, even though 90% of their forecast tracks were wrong. The one forecast which did have the right track, greatly overestimated the intensity.
Their grade was a D, but they awarded themselves an A+. At landfall, peak winds shown on Weather Underground were below 40 MPH.
Then they missed the true rain event, that was caused by a confluence of a front from the west that intersected with the T.S. Irene remnants, namely a perfect storm. This lead to the stationary front that produced the training event that caused the heavy rains and the catastrophic flooding in VT and NY and elsewhere. They failed to adequately explain this, although it was a perfect meteorological teaching moment.
They had explained a similar event in the Gulf of Maine decades earlier, caused by a similar confluence of three weather features we called the “Perfect Storm” for which the movie of the same name was made. . It seems they are not even as good as they were decades earlier! For the sake of the “consensus” (climate warmism), they have betrayed their real purpose in telling he truth about their expertise, and, as a result, are misleading people who really need their warnings.
Pity…Now these climatologists are doing the same with catastrophic alarmism, and condemning millions to being unprepared for bona fide climate changes, such as cold events that really kill people.