With four parameters I can fit an elephant, and with five I can make him wiggle his trunk.
Attributed to John von Neumann by Enrico Fermi, as quoted by Freeman Dyson in “A meeting with Enrico Fermi” in Nature 427 (22 January 2004) p. 297
Disrupting the Borg is expensive and time consuming!
Google Search
-
Recent Posts
- Ellen Flees To The UK
- HUD Climate Advisor
- Causes Of Increased Storminess
- Scientist Kamala Harris
- The End Of Polar Bears
- Cats And Hamsters Cause Hurricanes
- Democrats’ Campaign Of Joy
- New BBC Climate Expert
- 21st Century Toddlers Discuss Climate Change
- “the United States has suffered a “precipitous increase” in hurricane strikes”
- Thing Of The Past Returns
- “Impossible Heatwaves”
- Billion Dollar Electric Chargers
- “Not A Mandate”
- Up Is Down
- The Clean Energy Boom
- Climate Change In Spain
- The Clock Is Ticking
- “hottest weather in 120,000 years”
- “Peace, Relief, And Recovery”
- “Earth’s hottest weather in 120,000 years”
- Michael Mann Hurricane Update
- Michael Mann Hurricane Update
- Making Themselves Irrelevant
- Michael Mann Predicts The Demise Of X
Recent Comments
- conrad ziefle on Scientist Kamala Harris
- Tel on Ellen Flees To The UK
- Petit_Barde on Ellen Flees To The UK
- dm on Scientist Kamala Harris
- Gamecock on Scientist Kamala Harris
- Richard E Fritz on The End Of Polar Bears
- Richard E Fritz on Scientist Kamala Harris
- Richard E Fritz on Scientist Kamala Harris
- Richard E Fritz on Causes Of Increased Storminess
- Richard E Fritz on HUD Climate Advisor
John von Neumann only had a very basic computer model. With today’s computing power we can make the elephant do anything – sun, snow, rain, lightning, anything !
.
.
.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLpnXQpjvw&feature=related
Off Topic (Steve, you need Tips and Notes or a posted email address)
Here’s another doozy from Simon Fraser University in Burnaby, Canada …
http://www.sfu.ca/pamr/media-releases/2012/study-predicts-imminent-irreversible-planetary-collapse.html
ROTFLMAO! You cannot make this stuff up. Parody is now an impossible task!
Funnier is SFU Strategic Vision that is “Simon Fraser University – Engaging the World”. On the basis of this report there’s not a lot of need really.
I particularly liked the line:
Once a threshold-induced planetary state shift occurs, there’s no going back.
No indeed! Not unless you’ve got a time machine.
He forgot to mention the next threshold-induced planetary state shift is to glaciation.
To give you a feel for just how close to glaciation we are you can look at the calculations from NOAA:
Holocene peak insolation: 522.5 Wm-2
NOW (modern Warm Period) 476 Wm-2
Depth of the last ice age – around 463 Wm?2
A fall 2012 paper Can we predict the duration of an interglacial? gives the calculated solar insolation values of several glacial inceptions:
Current value – insolation = 479W m?2 (from that paper)
MIS 7e – insolation = 463 W m?2,
MIS 11c – insolation = 466 W m?2,
MIS 13a – insolation = 500 W m?2,
MIS 15a – insolation = 480 W m?2,
MIS 17 – insolation = 477 W m?2
The Holocene interglacial is now 11,717 years old….. That’s two centuries or so beyond half the present precession cycle (or 23,000/2=11,500). Only one interglacial , MIS-11, since the Mid-Pleistocene Transition has lasted longer than about half a precession cycle.
Any hope that the Holocene would go long was shot down by Lisiecki and Raymo in 2005 in their rebuttal of Loutre and Berger, 2003.
The Sea level High Stand was thousands of years ago and the earth is now cooling off in the last stages of the Holocene.
The Holocene sea level Highstand was also ~ 1.5 meter above todays sea-level 6,000 years ago in geologically stable South Vietnam.
This sea level evidence is backed up by the paper, Temperature and precipitation history of the Arctic It says: “Solar energy reached a summer maximum (9% higher than at present) ~11 ka ago and has been decreasing since then, primarily in response to the precession of the equinoxes. The extra energy elevated early Holocene summer temperatures throughout the Arctic 1-3°C above 20th century averages, enough to completely melt many small glaciers throughout the Arctic, although the Greenland Ice Sheet was only slightly smaller than at present.”
Another, more recent study in Norway agrees:
The authors of all these papers simply state that most small glaciers likely didn’t exist 6,000 years ago, but the highest period of the glacial increase has been in the past 600 years. This is hardly surprising with ~9% less solar energy.
9% less solar energy translates to ~120 W/m² less solar energy based on 1,361 W/m² (solar min) and 1362 W/m² (solar max) @ ToA.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Schimel, 1996] estimated that the change solar forcing between 1850 (start of the industrial age] and 1990 was only •0.3 W/m 2 at the top of the atmosphere vs. 1.5 W/m 2 for forcing anthropogenic CO2 [cf., Reid, 1997].
So even if you are talking 9% of Trenbreth’s “incoming solar radiation… absolute forcing,… around 340 W m–2 at the top of the atmosphere” the reduction in solar radiation since the Holocene climate Optimum is 30.6 W m–2 , and is equivalent to the entire CO2 forcing [32-44 W m–2] with mankind’s contribution being 1.5 W/m 2 for the forcing of anthropogenic CO2 [cf., Reid, 1997].
Can you see how completely nonsensical the whole scam is once you look at the entire Holocene?
Can you see that the climate money SHOULD be used to determine just what forcings (I hate that word) kick the earth into glaciation instead of worrying about a critically LOW, essential to life, gas?
How do you explain the big climate change that took place 12,000 years ago, before evil humans became a factor? Yes, maybe we should send them back 15,000 in a time machine so they can see mile thick ice sheets down to Chicago, without miserable humanity to blame.