NSIDC says that Arctic ice extent is at a record low for the date. PIOMAS says that ice thickness is at a record low. NOAA says that it is the hottest year ever, with record highs exceeding record lows at a ratio of three trillion to to one.
Someone out there must be willing to bet on a record low ice extent this summer?
No betters, just wetters… 😉
I have real money on it NOT being a record low.
They always talk about the Arctic sea ice, but rarely the Antarctic:
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_stddev_timeseries.png
Climate Progress (or lack thereof) is talking about a death spiral this year. May-hottest May EVER. Last 12 months-hottest 12 months EVER. I imagine you could find some suckers over there, as they are all up to their gills in their own Kool Aid.
I’ll take the bet, as I have under the name phydeaux at the SolarHam website message boards. My prediction of a 2012 summer low extent of 3.92 million sq. km. has nothing to do with my being an alarmist, however, as my postings here, on WUWT and at James Sexton’s site will attest. Rather, I beleive the Arctic is currently in the low plateau phase of a natural cycle, which will reverse in the next five years or so as a result of the recent PDO shift and other non-anthropogenic factors. Before then, Arctic ice extent may, as a result of weather factors such as exist this year, occasionaly fall below that recorded in 2007. It’s not the end of the world, or even the beginning of the end. As I’ve opined many times, although i believe CO2 to be a “greenhouse” gas, it seems to be totally unsubstantiated that an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration will result in the positive feedbacks necessary to result in warming with which humans need be concerned. Rather, AGW seems to be the latest means by which certain members of the intelligesia seek to impose their policy choices on the hoi polloi of the world.
Unfortunately, Steve’s website suffers from preaching to the choir syndrome The insights here will never sawy the AGW true beleivers, and i doubt rarely, if ever, reach the general public who will certainly have a say in whether the civilization destroying energy policies of the greens.
Anyhow, enough pontificating. What’s the bet?
3.92 extent? By who’s measure? That sounds really low. Are you sure you want to do that?
Steve,
That’s the right number. Let’s say Arctic Roos, since it hasn’t been messed up by the satellite fialures, as far as i can tell.
Sorry for all the typos in the original post. Am always in a hurry to get back to work and didn’t proof very well.
Do they publish numbers? All that I have seen from them is graphs.
Most of the “AGW true believers” are not interested in scientific research or facts that contradict their tidy little belief system, which is mired in a hatred of capitalism and modern industry. For various reasons — ego, greed, and power lust — they refuse to admit that their doomsday theory about man-caused global warming is the product of junk science and premeditated fraud. They steadfastly cling to their fairy tale like an infant hugging his favorite Teddy Bear.
Interesting point. I checked their site, and couldn’t find a table of data used to produce the graphs. What do you suggest we do? I’m a reasonable fellow as a general. rule. Or so say most people who know me, save my children.
Probably the best site is http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot.csv but I suggest that you wait a few days and see what happens to the ice before making a bet on a record low.
That sucker is tough on the eyes. It gave me a headache. That being said, once you figure it out, i agree it does provides the data we need. I’ll take your reprieve, and revisit this on say, July 1?
Sounds good. The curve is going to flatten some this week.
Lucia had a contest on average extent for September.
http://rankexploits.com/musings/2012/ice-bets-in-time-for-arcus/