From team climate moron, comes this news – being touted by two of Texas’ most clueless.
U.S. heat over the past 13 months: a one in 1.6 million event
U.S. heat over the past 13 months: a one in 1.6 million event | Planet3.0
The way the statistical midget calculated this was by assuming that the odds of each month were one out of three, so he raised 3 to the thirteenth power and came up with 1.6 million.
Now I am going to apply the same math to the ice age scare of the 1970s. In 1974, the CIA reported that Eastern Canada had been below normal for 19 months in a row.
www.climatemonitor.it/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/1974.pdf
The odds of being below normal are one out of two. So if we raise two to the nineteenth power, we can conclude that the global cooling of the 1970s was a one in 524,288 event, colder than the last three or four ice ages! No wonder Hansen had to erase it!
These folks are dumber than a sack of rocks.
I will attempt to quote Dr Carl Sagan.
“Given enough time and space, the improbable becomes merely inevitable”
Given enough weed, the impossible becomes the obvious.
Ouch.
“It pays to keep an open mind, but not so open your brains fall out.”
? Carl Sagan
How about dumber than a bag of hammers?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=fUMDMjqang0#t=39s
The obvious problem with the Planet3.0 statement is the assumption that the event of “the monthly average temperature being ranked among the warmest third of their historical distribution” occurring in one month is independent of the event occurring in the preceding month. The variable is not a random variable. The chance of the event occurring in any month increases with the increase in the number of successive previous months that the event had occurred.