Guest post by Joe Bastardi
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The Way it Is: Back to the 50s.
In 2006 , I loudly proclaimed on national outlets that we were going back to the 1950s as far as the climate pattern went and that the patterns of the 50s which opened the east coast up for hurricanes, as well as hot, droughty look, for the southern US would take over. The reason was simple, we were in a cycle roughly like the period when the PDO and AMO warmed and a flip to the cold PDO was on the way. So its not brain surgery to then go to the maps of the summer of the 1950s with heat and drought,
and then the remarkable slamming of the east coast in the 1950s
This Made it relatively unremarkable to me to simply forecast the similar event based on the reality of where the pattern was going.
So in 2006 I made the statement that by 2015 2 major hurricanes should hit the northeast, which I thought was conservative given the physical reality of what the warm AMO and Cold PDO produce as far as the pattern around N America. Even this year, with the low ACE I have for the classic breeding grounds, I think there is reason to be very concerned along the east coast yet again, from in close developments such as we saw with Bob ( 1991) Belle ( 1976) or Carol (1954). I was taken aback at charges of “hype” given I merely identified what should be an obvious elephant in the room. But what is most remarkable is that they have not come. Even Irene, though a formidable storm and pressure wise, as strong as they come, fell apart compared to the sisters of 1954 and Donna of 1960. See that map above. Consider what happened in the Carolinas, and that does not even show Diane in 1955 which came right after Connie.
So imagine how completely flabbergasted I am when I hear nonsense about co2 and causing global warming and Irene is a product of that, , when in a 2 year stretch, 1954-1955 6 hurricanes, affected N Carolinas with at least hurricane conditions and 8 in a 7 year stretch from 1954-1960. And cat 2 or greater in New England with a sideswipe to the west from the great Hazel in 1954, and then Donna in 1960, a storm that gave hurricane force winds to every state on the east coast.
So climate clowns, be forewarned. We have your number. What you should be asking ( and I am) is why we haven’t been hit, not blaming co2
You know, I thought when I got on some national outlets and laid out a forecast for a pattern like the 1950s, it would serve as a warning to these clowns not to play the co2 card. Seriously, you have to be pretty ignorant to blame a drought that was being forecasted because of a large scale pattern change by people years before ( not just me), on co2 after the drought sets in. But I find they either don’t know, don’t understand, or could care less about this matter. There is a physical reason for why this happens , why the US warms at first when the pacific cools and the atlantic is still warm When the PDO flips, the cooling of the tropical pacific and the waters that ring the warm core lead to a stronger jet that aims itself toward the northwest part of the US. South of the mean jet, large scale sinking takes place, hence the drier, In addition, the colder pacific means less water content in air masses south of 40 north that come into the US, unlike when the tropical pacific is warm. It shows why
Pres Obamas proclamation that the Texas drought was because of global warming was sheer ignorance. During the warming PDO, texas had above normal precip as global temps responded to the warming of the Pacific, the opposite happens when the Pacific, and global temps cool
Look at 1980 to 2000 temps.. warming globally during the warm PDO
Look at US, Texas precip opposite of what happened in the 50s when the PDO flipped to cold and cooling began
So the warming pattern in the Pacific and then corresponding response in global temps is a WET PATTERN, opposite of what was being hoisted on the American public, like now, and the media sheep swallow and follow.
When its dry, its hotter in much of the US, which climate clowns don’t seem to understand is CLOSER TO THE EQUATOR THAN THE NORTH POLE. In the meantime, the overall global temps start to cool, but until the AMO cools, atlantic basin then becomes a key source of warmth to the pattern. Now I want the climate clowns out there to think.. what happens when you have a warm ocean naturally to your east ( warm AMO) and you are warming the southern part of the US.. where should you look for enhanced hurricane activity relative to normal, based on the overall signal of a colder pdo and warmer amo? Its not that hard, you can do it, just look.. Should be relatively close to land right.. the intersection of where the pdo induced southern US warming and the amo warming is taking place. Sure its simplified, but you don’t see many hurricanes off the west coast do you ( don’t see any, really, why, the water is cold and the air is cool
So since you simply ignored the facts when it comes to warmer weather and drought, ESPECIALLY RIGHT AFTER THE PDO FLIP, THE EARLY TO MID 50S, AS WE ARE IN NOW, You will not be able to blame any major east coast hurricanes the next 5-10 years, or for that matter anytime, on the fraud of AGW. In fact you should be expecting them to happen simply because of the pattern. The history you choose to ignore says so, though that never has stopped you before.
So now, if we see these comments based on what has to be ignorance of the past and the physical realities of how the atmosphere reacts when basic climate cycle patterns take over, we have a reference point for them to go to. Its not rocket science and yes to some extent it does diminish the importance perhaps of the forecaster and the climate scientist , and maybe that is why they are so threatened and wish to ramp up what is going on. But CO2 is not responsible for what you see going on, as it is right in line with basic climate cycle theory.
So to the climate clowns trying to use these events, I want you to explain how this can possibly be so similar
Here is the summer of 1951, the first “el nino summer after the pdo flip from warm to cold
Here is the summer of 2009, the first el nino summer after the latest pdo flip from warm to cold
Now watch the following 3 summers in the 1950s
Look at 2010, 2011 and then given what has happened so far , use reasoning to come up with the three will look like after this year
let me help, the core of the warmth this year is such that it will add more to the northwest and probably cut down in the southeast making these almost perfect matches
Now how any rational human being, yet alone a phd in anything, can not see how close this link is with the climate cycle is either because they have not looked, or they are simply lying trying to push their agenda. What else can it be. You cant get a closer match. In fact I cant even believe how close this is. Its amazing. But guess what, we have similar cycles of the Pacific and atlantic, but co2 is not a constant!
So when hurricanes come, lets be ready. They are a part of the pattern that we are in, and the data and physical reasoning show it.
I vote that “alarmist” be retired and instead we refer to them with what, apparently, Joe has coined……”climate clowns” or CC for short. It has such a nice ring to it.
Who’s the REAL clown? In September of 2010 Joe Bastardi called for the Arctic ice sheet to drop back to the level of 2005 and continue BUILDING up over coming years. Instead, the ice sheet has continued its downward decline and it is at record lows. Who is the clown that predicted in September of 2011, that areas around the Great Lakes were in for a “nasty winter”. Instead, they had the WARMEST WINTER ON RECORD. I’m afraid that Joe is the clown, and everyone is laughing at him. I can’t WAIT for his next call on the Arctic ice extent………he has been consistently wrong. Video is a wonderful thing.
I take it you are ready to bet on a record low this year. How about $1000? Or perhaps you are just full of crap.
NOAA and just about everyone else forecast a nasty winter for the Great Lakes. Did you forget to mention that part?
I made no forecast on the arctic ice cap until after the record low ( 2007) and was not even involved that much in the stone throwing you guys do till after the PDO flip i 2008 when I appeared on the Oreilly factor with the Triple Crown of cooling. . The first climate conference I ever attended was 2006) My forecast for the ice as, temperatures was for the return to late 1970s levels by 2030. As for the one year debacle, it actually did get back to normal in April that year for a time, but I admitted I was wrong ( that was 2 years ago btw)
Knock it off, you dont have a leg to stand one, and if you want to argue global sea ice, then better take a look at the southern hemisphere.
And how bout that global temp since the pdo flip. What is NCEP now a right wing think tank?
http://policlimate.com/climate/cfsr_t2m_2011.png
How do you possibly blame co2 when you see the maps of a past event almost exactly as they are now. How can you not say, heh wait a minute, how does that happen.
ANd by the way, here is the reality of the forecast of the IPCC
http://clivebest.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/overlayco2.png
so what are the satellites and hadcrut making it up?
Simple test for you 1) What is the global temp going to do as the pdo and then the amo continue to fall. Remember you have a lot to go before you can make up how far you are behind, so the answer has to be a sharp rise.
2) What do you need to see to cause you to change. For me, it would be the rapid rebound in temps according to objective measurements even as the oceanic cycles flip
3) Finally if the enso signals are always being touted by hansen and his reliance on super ninos to spike global temps, then doesnt that say that because of the flip in the pdo to cold where la ninas out do el ninos 2 to 1 in amont and length, that they are admitting its not co2. Part of all this was the idea that the Pacific would be in a constant warm enso, and that is clearly not the case as the PDO has flipped
food for thought, I wish you the best, and about that I am not clowning around. Just give my ideas a shot.
By the way, when I hear people saying Irene was global warming and know what happened with hurricanes in the past, just what do you want me to say.. that they are serious?
LOL, Now I’m sitting here in the year 2014 reading these comments. Lake superior is frozen over, The polar vortex is crushing the entire US with snow and record low temps. I guess you are the real Clown JC Smith. It just came one year late.
Nice post Joe. Just wait until a hurricane threatens the east coast and see the kind of hype and AGW rhetoric we’ll have then. The public in general is slowly, but surely losing interest in climate change, and it may take years or even decades until these climate clowns’ ideas are finally put to rest, but they’re hype and propaganda is as predictable as the changing of the seasons. Sigh….
Thanks Joe , and thank you Steven . I have been watching and listening to you for some time now Joe and what you say roughly correalates with what has been happening ; this I know from observations in my own area and not what the above refered to ” climate clowns ” put out. No one else that I’ve heard of has been more accurate with their predictions , in fact the “climate clowns ” have been total failures . My actions have reflected my belief as I’ve been planting accordingly , I’m thinking we here in the northwest need to start thinking more corn as the world needs huge amounts and God has blessed us with the climate that will produce it. With the coming shortages a farmer out here might make a decent living on corn. Just picked my pie cherries so looks like cherry pie this winter.
It’s time to drive a stake through AGW scare campaign being waged by the pseudo-scientists and their allies in the mainstream press. There has never been any empirical proof linking CO2 (man-made or the much larger natural component) to global warming. The entire scare is based on climate models whose GIGO predictions have completely failed. Many of the so-called climate “experts” pushing the bogus global warming theory on the taxpayers’ dime should be charged with fraud.
Ten or 20 years from now people will shake their head in wonder at a world that went crazy over a 6-degree-centigrade increase in temperature, most of which occurred early in the 20th century. What we should be worried about now is the current weak solar cycle, which may foreshadow a period of long-term cooling or, worse, another Little Ice Age.
The northeast has not had anything comparable to Carol and Hazel since Carol and Hazel. Maybe Bob was close, but just on Cape Cod
Why go back to the 1950’s Joe? The most recent equivalent Two Solar/Earth Year ‘Wet’/Normal Period.(before the current one,) after a One Solar/Earth Year ‘Dry’ Cycle, was 2003. It also happened in 1994, 1976, 1958, 1940,———1805,1787, ————- etc.The next correlation will be 2030.
Yes, the U.S is in for two years of hurricanes, {hopefully not exacerbated by explosive volcanic activity, (albedo,)} but your reliance on ENSO/PDO ‘flips’ means you are ‘shooting in the dark.’ (and somewhat ‘clownishly’ at that.)
An updated version of ‘Tomorrow’s Weather’ (Alex S. Gaddes, 1990) (with ‘Dry’ Cycle forecasts to 2055) is available as a free pdf from [email protected]
Don
You have me wrong about the sun. Just as you play to your strengths I play to mine. I most certainly agree with you that the sun is driving the whole shooting match in the larger sense. I assumed that the reader knows that with the planet created the way it is, and the only true source of energy to warm the planet being the sun, the earths reaction to the uneven distribution of land and ocean and variance in radiation because of the season, means everything has to originate with the sun. But in the immediate term, the coming decade to two flips in the amo and pdo, which of course can be traced back to the cyclical nature of the weather simply because of the uneven way the earth is created and receives radiation, has to have a sensible effect that can be quantified through a test.. does the temperature react to the oceanic cycle. That right off will destroy the co2 argument, if the flip of pdo and amo means our temps are back to the late 70s by 2030,
But I am a big sun worshipper, but in the larger sense. Perhaps its cause I cant get my hands around it as well as perhaps you would like me too, but I have no quarrel with you.
In wrestling terms, it would be like arguing which takedown is best head inside or outside…. I happen to be a head inside single man, but see how one would think the other is the best.
I do not disagree with you, I have set up ideas that can be tested though in the coming years, but those ideas have to have the suns input behind them
so no mas, por favor
I agree with Joe when he says this current weather pattern is in the 1950s again, but in several years he said we’d be in the 60s, so I wonder what the 60s were like weather wise. The hurricanes seem to ease off the east coast some and focus towards the gulf of mexico and in the 70s too, but by the time the PDO was warm again by the 1980s, both coasts looked the same threat wise, but I’m certainly no expert on this matter and I need to dig a little further into the hurricanes of the 60s, 70s, and 80s, to see what’s going on.
ENSO is not a ‘strength’ Joe, it is a fallacy!
If you are basing your forecast methods on ENSO/PDO ‘flips’ etc, you (and other ENSO proponents, including most tenured meteorologists) certainly do have a quarrel with me.
I have provided an exact forecast method that is perpetual (forward and back) and easily verifiable from records, thus, unable to be ‘adjusted’ or tampered with, (even by me.) It is not just based on THE SUN, as you would glean if you bothered to read the offered pdf.
It is time for you to come up with a viable forecast and method Joe, or withdraw from the field.
I suggest you start by reading ‘Tomorrow’s Weather’.
So I was imagining it when that hillside washed away along highway 17 near Los Gatos, during the winter of 1997-1998. Apparently it didn`t rain for about 120 days in a row that winter.
I hate Highway 17!
“So its not brain surgery to…’ I like that one. I usually use “it doesn’t take an Einstein to…”, though Einstein was no rocket scientist.
One thing is clear, and this is verified in the cgate emails (I don’t have the link offhand), the climate clowns purposely tried to present a trumped up facade of complexity to baffle the public into thinking “this is very complex, let’s leave this to the climate experts.” This was and is deliberate obfuscation. Truth is much of it is NOT that complex. Like temperature readings.. that contradict the warmist case, and the OBVIOUS falsehood of the ipcc’s claim of a causal correlation between CO2 & temps (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WK_WyvfcJyg). It’s not rocket science.
I don’t ‘get’ the correlation with highway 17 Steven, but perhaps you were not referring to my post.
The 1998 El Nino caused unbelievable amounts of rain in The Bay Area
At the beginning 1997 America was around seven months into a five year ‘Dry’ Cycle. (depending on the longitude.) I would suggest to you Steven, that your particular so called ENSO rain event in 1998 was a result of the ‘albedo’ effect from various explosive volcanic activity around that time. The most likely being the eruption in the Caribbean of Soufriere Hills volcano on 25 June 1997. There was also activity in Alaska, Japan, etc, that may have contributed.
Alex S. Gaddes devoted a chapter in ‘Tomorrow’s Weather’ to the possible effects of explosive volcanic activity in ameliorating ‘Dry’ Cycles, or exacerbating ‘Wet’/Normal Periods. especially, in Australia’s case, explosive volcanic activity in Indonesia. (Mt Merapi, alleviated a ‘Dry’ Cycle in the second half of 2010.) A further graphic example was the eruption of Eyjatjallajokull in Iceland in 2010, the effects of which closed Heath Row airport and brought blizzard conditions to the UK. In 2011 volcanic ash from eruptions in Mexico caused Melbourne Airport to close in Australia, and produced severe flooding in Southern NSW and Victoria.
Nothing to do with ENSO/La Nina,or AGW.
For continuity’s sake, I recommend you (and others) read the work for yourself.
For community;s sake, I recommend YOU to come out with proof showing us how ENSO DOES NOT affect global climate. An increase in surface water temperatures over the eastern and central pacific leads to a change in the distribution of atmospheric pressure over the equatorial region, and those thunderstorms give off latent heat which alters the wind patterns over the tropics and the globe. Don, seriously the albedo “effect”, is what helped to cause the significant rain events on the San Francisco area, not the super el nino that was going on in the ocean upstream, and as I’ve said before, the americas see an overall wetter pattern in el ninos, and the overall cycle of ENSO, AMO, and NAO also contribute. “Your so-called ENSO rain event.” Wow, you’re incompetence is showing. If you want me or anyone on this website to believe your outrageous claims that ENSO has no effect on climate then prove how it DOESN’T.
You are also going to have to prove that Joe Bastardi too, because he clearly states in the post on this page how ENSO plays a significant role in climate.
I can clearly see the parallels between the early 50’s and the present weather. My family farms in ne Kansas and I remember my Dad telling me about the 51 flood, but not much more about the weather following it. I would be very interested in knowing how 1955 stacks up compared to the averages along with 1956 and following years. It might give us a glimmer of hope with all of the heat and dry out there right now.
Thanks
Ray
Ray,
The US is entering a Two Solar/Earth Year ‘Wet’/Normal Period (August 2012,) that started around 110 degrees East of Prime Longitude (Bejing) in March 2011 and will reach Australia (East Coast) in early January 2013. (30 degrees longitude/month with the East – West Solar Orbit of the Earth’s Magnetic Field.) This will be followed by a severe Five Year ‘Dry’ Cycle (drought) that will reach the American East Coast in August 2014. ( The equivalent Two Solar/Earth Year ‘Wet’/Normal Period of 1950/51 and the subsequent Five Year ‘Dy’ Cycle of 1952/56.)
You may obtain an updated version of ‘Tomorrow’s Weather’ Alex S Gaddes 1990.(including ‘Dry’ Cycle forecasts to 2055) available as a free pdf from [email protected]
Eric, neither you nor Joe have read ‘Tomorrow’s Weather’ (after repeated offers) and it seems you have no intentions of doing so. Stop trying to waste my time.
Try hitting the books to learn how the warm air from the Southern Hemisphere does not go to the Arctic! It’s a wonder Joe didn’t pick you up on that one. (unless he didn’t know either!)
Wow, now you’re bringing this up? Your prediction for a 2 year “wet period” will also fail because after this year, la nina will once again take over and continue to worsen the already dry conditions over much of the country, and North America as a whole. Wow, and you’re attacking Bastardi. It’s a wonder Joe didn’t pick YOU up on the statement that “ENSO has nothing to do with it.” I asked you multiple times and you still won’t answer my statement. If you are so confident in your belief that ENSO has NO ROLE IN CLIMATE then explain to me and everyone else on this blog HOW ENSO, SOI, and it’s related more long term cycles of PMO and AMO don’t play a role in climate. I won’t even look at your book “Tommorrow’s Weather” until you can validate your statement that “ENSO has nothing to do with it.”(it being the climate.) Until you can come up with evidence that ENSO and its related cycles have nothing to do with climate, specifically precipitation, please don’t waste my time.
However, in saying that I do believe, like Bastardi, that in the very long timescales of earth’s history, (centuries) ENSO’s effect on climate becomes minimal, and gets lost in the “noise” as the overall effects of the sun are more prominent, and these factors along with precession, and the variance in distance from the sun play a bigger role as you look over longer periods of time. In the shorter term, decades and years themselves, ENSO and the related oceanic cycles are much more noticeable.
I also did some searching around for your wet and dry cycles, and did find an article that mentioned some of what you were saying about dry and wet cycles, but in the long timescales in terms of centuries or more. http://tenaya.uscd.edu/~dettinge/PACLIM/Yu02.pdf. A simple google search titled, “dry climate cycles” should work as well.
Joe,
Where can I find something that gives me a feel for the next 3 – 5 winters in the Seattle market area? One of the companies I own is a paving company which also does sanding and de-icing in our typically short Seattle winters, and it would be very helpful to have that kind of info 6 months in advance (knowing that anything beyond that is based on history and science, but not always entirely accurate obviously). My email is [email protected] (Thanks for your help Joe!)
Thanks Joe. Really though, what you are saying, is that we don’t learn from history. This is an underlying truth about many of the problems human kind faces right now.
I’m with Global Warming all the way… No proof at all on the earth cooling going forward, we have the proof now and in the past ten years or so we are in a warming trend which is not going to stop anytime soon, this is reality not that cooling crap, just like the bull that was said all spring- This is not last Summer- certainly was not it turned out Hotter – so anyone out there can believe the cooling theory i dont buy it, there trying to sell a product.
Recent Antarctic Peninsula Warming Unusual
Aug 22, 2012; 3:50 PM ET
New ice core research from the Antarctic Peninsula shows that the rapid warming of this region over the last 100 years has been unusual.
I hate what happened on the East coast and I am praying for all…but Joe was right. I remember Joe writing about a huge hurricane that could devestate the East coast several years ago. He didn’t say it would happen the year he wrote the article, but he did say we would see one in the next few years. He said it was only a matter of time and it seems the time was October 2012. .
The Australian scientists who tried to prove that the Arctic ice was melting ended up being marooned in Arctic Ice in the Arctic SUMMER and needed to be rescued. I didn’t stop laughing for a whole week. And they have the temerity to continue to blow the Climate Clown tune. Keep up the very excellent work Joe!
and your meteorological credentials are, joe?
climate.nasa.gov
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f8/Global_Temperature_Anomaly.svg
Physicist Richard A. Muller says Bastardi’s explanation of CO2 is “completely wrong” and “even skeptics of global warming, if they know physics, would disagree with him.”[15]