- There will be an increase in the amount of five year old ice this autumn. NSIDC won’t be able to use that
propagandatalking point any more. - The sea ice extent trend line will flatten some over the next two weeks.
Disrupting the Borg is expensive and time consuming!
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What is odd to me is that from looking at the ice concentration on the cryosphere today site, which shows comparison of today’s concentration with 2007, it sure looks to be a lot more than 2007; yet the graphs I look at on Anthony’s site on the Sea Ice Reference page show extent (some show 15%, some show 30%) right now AS LOW AS 2007. I don’t get it. ANy idea of what games they are playing . . .?
Hey Martin Clauss , Who are you going to believe , the government agencies or your own eyes ? Hey Steven , I don’t know what the minimum arctic ice extent is going to be this summer but I do know co2 has nothing to do with it . I will just watch and try to see what it ends up being. I do know I won’t beleive what the government agencies tell me it is unless there is independant confirmation. It’s pretty bad when you are no longer able to trust the government to accurately report the facts. In fact I don’t believe much of anything I hear from any part of the government any more.
The odds of ending below 2007 are pretty close to zero.
Notice John’s wordpress avitar change, how many e-addys does he use?
Odds of being below 2007 (ice area) currently are at 1.
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/ssmi1_ice_area.png
What is there lesft in mid september is still open; but ending below 2007 has odds not so close to zero.
You must be ready to bet. How much?
Your comment July 20, 2012 at 2:09 pm
betting on what?
I bet that we are below 2007 ice area right now.
I bet that DMI extent is above 2007
The real bet is on the September minimum. Are you willing to put your money where your mouth is?
Hi Steven, you are right: Ice extent on the danish side is at the moment lager than 2007.
we should first calrify on what we bet.
I prefer sea ice AREA not extent (the later includes open water).
Since area and extent are reported here I prefer more the Norwegian data:
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/
If you agree with my proposal:
http://arctic-roos.org – data and sea-ice AREA we can discuss the aoumt.
I prefer extent because we can get digital daily data here
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot.csv
I still would go for a bet in case you would agree to bet on ice AREA and not on ice extend.
There isn`t a snowballs chance in hell that either area or extent will end below 2007.
o.k.;
let’s go for it:
I prefer sea ice AREA not extent (the later includes open water).
Since area and extent are reported here I prefer more the Norwegian data:
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/
If you agree with my proposal:
http://arctic-roos.org – data and sea-ice AREA we can discuss the aoumt.
I would state that the minimum ice extent 2012 will at least as low as 2007.
What about 50$?
by second week of october we schould have the fianl data.
On the other seides weren’t you the one who stated that there is no melt on Greenland summt.
Considering your forecast ability in the summit melt case, the odds are on my side.
Your statement:
stevengoddard says:
July 24, 2012 at 2:16 pm
“There isn`t a snowballs chance in hell that either area or extent will end below 2007. ”
Is not valid?
Since extent is depending haevily on wind conditions i think that area gives a more realistic result. Tis is the sum of the surface area of the ice. Whne the ice is fractured and you get winds directing away from packice you get a large extend without adding any ice (and vice versa when Wind is directing towards the packice).
All I wanted is to excluded this uncertainty from the bet.
The other argument for using area is, that the values for area are seemingly more consistent when comparing different results.
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/comparison-of-algorithms
Now you say “I don’t trust any of the people who report area. ”
This means that you do not trust the http://arctic-roos.org Data?
So why don’t we go for the ijis-data?
50$ that 2007 min extend is not smaller than 2012 nin extent (ijis-data).
I don’t trust the area data. CT maps show a lot more ice in 2012, yet their numbers report less. I think they are doing something wrong.
Yes and you estimate the greenland albedo from an sat picture wiht cloud cover.
Sorry Steven you are just a big mouth!
You asked for a bet, i offered several, and you are going to count pixels on online sat pictures.
You made my day.
Cut the bullshit. The bet I offered is JAXA reported extent. How much?
Cut off your bull shit yourself: you never offered a bet on the jaxa data; I did ; you should trein yur screen reader better. ijis-data is jaxa.
My bet was offered already. In case you can’t read look for someone to read it to you.
50$ that 2007 min extend is not smaller than 2012 nin extent (ijis-data). (ijis = jaxa)..
Yes
Quoting:
>” MFKBoulder says:
>July 25, 2012 at 10:54 pm
>…
>My bet was offered already. In case you can’t read look for someone to read it to you.
>50$ that 2007 min extend is not smaller than 2012 nin extent (ijis-data). (ijis = jaxa)..
>> stevengoddard says:
>>July 25, 2012 at 11:20 pm
>>Yes ”
### #### ###
Can i take this “yes” that you would like to bet against my statement.
Sorry there was a typo: I wanted to go for area not for extent.
o.k.;
let’s go for it:
I prefer sea ice AREA not extent (the later includes open water).
Since area and extent are reported here I prefer more the Norwegian data:
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/
If you agree with my proposal:
http://arctic-roos.org – data and sea-ice AREA we can discuss the aoumt.
I would state that the minimum ice AREA 2012 will at least as low as 2007.
What about 50$?
by second week of october we schould have the fianl data.
On the other seides weren’t you the one who stated that there is no melt on Greenland summt.
Considering your forecast ability in the summit melt case, the odds are on my side.
Nope. I don’t trust any of the people who report area.
Hi Steven,
your statement #2 is obvious given the average melting curve.
Intersesting: 2012 has the fastest decay of ice are in the last five years.
The Warmists have lost all credibility. In their desperation, they now blame evey severe or anomalous weather-related event on “climate change,” the code phrase for global warming. Declining arctic sea ice (never any mention of increasing Antarctic sea ice), droughts, floods, tornadoes, blizzards, hurricanes, fires and calving glaciers are all caused by the CO2 bogeyman, according to the prophets of climate doom. Does it get any sillier or more pathetic? The ringleaders pushing this unscientific nonsense should be arrested and charged with fraud.
A fine article from Dr. Ileana Johnson Paugh in http://www.canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/48187
‘In spite of evidence from the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center in Colorado that “Arctic summer sea ice has increased by 409,000 square miles, or 26 percent, since 2007,” it is politically and financially convenient for carbon capture, carbon sequestration, and carbon tax proponents to continue the push to fundamentally alter the U.S. economy with the worn out lie, “man has caused global warming.”’
She also points out other significant fact about this years temperatures and the many problems with large-scale deployment of carbon capture and sequestration (CCS).
What is your forecast based on?
Intrade has #2 at $39.9. Time to bet the farm?
The ice in the Chukchi Sea is thick, and cold air is settling in over most of the Arctic Basin. By this date in 2007, the ice edge was already several hundred miles further north on the Alaska side of the Arctic.
So, all-in with the farm?
I’m not going to take responsibility for that. All it would take would be two weeks of strong south winds to mess everything up.
The Arctic roos does not seem to be updating its graph at the moment.How do we know that it will have updated by september? It may be that it is showing more ice now then in 2007 but the people financing this project do not want evil deniers like us to be able to use their graphs to show that.The reason for all of these graphs is to show how fast the arctic ice is melting year on year not provide an accurate picture for those interested in what is going on in the arctic.
Hey Steven,
as long aas you do not clearly state that you accept the bet (see above), the bet is not valid.
Just for calrification.
With your statments you might be winding out of responsibility this fall.
Yes, I accept the bet of Jaxa higher than 2007
Look at this:
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Extent_L.png
and waht was your statement:
My Arctic Forecasts
Posted on July 20, 2012 by stevengoddard
2.The sea ice extent trend line will flatten some over the next two weeks.
Steven, did the “trend line” flatten?
Lets bet $1000 on the JAXA record minimum.
My bet against your statemnet is running now already for a while.
It was 50 bucks.
Since the chance (in extent) is 50:50 I won’t bet more.
I am not to much into gambling.
However, I’d reconsider the amount if you would bet on the ice AREA.
The sum was fixed a coule of days ago.
Although you offer is tempting seeing you to be worng on the red dot.