Woe To Arctic Bettors

The image below shows why those betting on a record minimum are probably making a mistake.

During July 2007, very strong winds blew across the Bering Strait and pushed the ice edge to the north by dozens of miles per day. The winds continued all summer and compacted the ice towards the pole. Note how far the ice had receded by July 15.

This year, the water is extremely cold in the Bering Sea, and the ice in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas is thick. Winds have been calm for a couple of weeks. Barring a major shift in weather patterns, there isn’t going to be much ice area loss in the Chukchi or Beaufort Seas during the next few weeks.

Daily Arctic Sea Ice Maps

Things can change, but right now everything hints at slow melt after the Hudson Bay melts out.

About Tony Heller

Just having fun
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25 Responses to Woe To Arctic Bettors

  1. Les Johnson says:

    I hate being a pirate of pendant, but it should be “bettor”, not “better”.

  2. jak says:

    Those who prefer to compare apples with apples might prefer this map…

    http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=06&fd=28&fy=2007&sm=06&sd=28&sy=2012

    “This year, the water is extremely cold in the Beaufort Sea,…”

    Yep.

    http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/satellite/plots/satanom.arc.d-00.png

    • OK, I take it that you want to bet on a record low. How much?

      • jak says:

        Hi Steve,

        Another failed prediction for you to chalk up, I fear, I don’t want a 50/50 bet on a minimum.

        On the spread bet, as detailed on an earlier thread, I will now move the mark from 5.5 to 3.5. Cut off at 6. Grand a point. US$.

      • That is chickenshit. You are screaming that the Arctic is in the worst shape it has ever been in, but aren`t willing to back that up with a bet on the record minimum.

      • jak says:

        Steven,

        I ain’t screaming shit.

        There are 34 horses in the race. From 1979 to 2011, we already know the finishing times.

        Horse Number 35: 2012. Do I think it has a good chance? Yes.

        Do I think it has a better than 50/50 chance of doing better than the previous 34 runners? No.

        If the dice weren’t loaded, it should only have a 1/35 chance of finishing first.

        But the dice ARE loaded, as the levels of atmospheric CO2 have been increasing, so the chances of more ice melting are increasing, as endlessly explained by the tireless Dr Hansen.

        So the chances of a new minimum this year are, in my opinion, way above 1 in 35. But not so far above 1 in 35 as to have reached 1 in 2.

        Anyway – my opinion, your opinion. At least I hope we can both agree that the level of sea ice coverage in the Arctic is TODAY at its lowest level ever for this date:

        http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html

    • rw says:

      Just as there are those who can’t walk and chew gum at the same time, there are those who can’t process words and pictures at the same time …

    • By the way jak, you are scum. The quote you pasted above and attributed to me is not something I said.

      • jak says:

        HI steven,

        which quote?

        I only have ” This year, the water …etc”

        This is extremely misleading, certainly, given the overall picture of Sea Surface Temperatures in the Arctic, but it is certainly attributable to you.

        Have you already forgotten what you wrote in the post above?

      • jak says:

        Nah, I’m a pisshead.

        Mistake acknowledged.

        http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/satellite/plots/satanom.arc.d-00.png

        There you go, everybody can now check that the temperatures in the Bering Seas are indeed very low.

        You might excuse me perhaps if my atttention was drawn to other areas of the above map, as I would not personally have thought that the low temperatures in the Bering Sea were entirely the most notable feature, but…

  3. dmmcmah says:

    I’m not going to bet on a record low, I think the arctic hysteria is silly. Plus I’ve noticed at http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php summer temps have been below average. You’re also right to point out that it was the winds that caused the 2007 minimum and not temperature, something that was mentioned in a NASA study later that year which was of course ignored by National Geographic.

    That being said, if you look at late June 2007 there are larger areas of low sea ice concentration in 2012. Comparing mid-July 2007 to mid-June 2012 is not really a comparison worth making.

    • The comparison is between the end of June and mid-July and shows how far the ice front would have to move over the next two weeks, Sorry you didnt get it and might want to try again.

      • dmmcmah says:

        Well lets compare the same date on both years. The red area which is relatively low ice concentration is quite a bit larger in 2012 as compared to 2007, suggesting that by mid-July indeed 2012 could have lower or equivalent ice loss to 2007. In fact I’d say that right now 2012 looks substantially worse than 2007.

        http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=06&fd=28&fy=2007&sm=06&sd=28&sy=2012

      • dmmcmah says:

        I am not “completely missing the point” mr. arrogant. You’re the one missing the point – or maybe you don’t want to admit the facts. The sea ice concentration now is quite a bit worse than the sea ice concentration was on this date in 2007. I am not attempting to predict the future on an outcome which is heavily influenced by many random variables (YES, LIKE WIND) , but its plausible given the low sea ice concentration that 2012 will end up worse than 2007.

      • dmmcmah says:

        If you red my posts carefully, you would see I am not betting on anything. Betting on a record low is a silly game, and as I stated in my first post, my opinion is the arctic hysteria is silly. Sticking to the facts, it is a fact that the sea ice concentration now is worse than it was on the same date in 2007. That’s all there is to this conversation.

      • jak says:

        @dmmmcmah

        “…it is a fact that sea ice concentration now is worse than it was on the same date in 2007.”

        And also that sea ice area is lower:

        http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html

        in this year than in 2007, or any other year.

        Just imagine, if Steve was interested in reporting facts honestly, he could surely write an honest update about this.

        Here’s hoping…

        • I don`t get it. You are convinced that the Arctic is in the worst state it has ever been in. Why not put your money where your mouth is, and bet on a record minimum?

  4. Brian D says:

    Just seen this post at Arctic.io with a 1596 map.
    http://www.arctic.io/2012/4/north-pole-painted-by-mercator-published-1596

    My comment there was this:
    Could be a crude representation of the Canadian Archipelago. Magnetic north may have been in that region at that time. Thinking that mag north should be at true north, they put the land mass there not realizing the vastness of the sea ice. If that’s the case, then both passages were navigable back then, as well.

  5. Punter says:

    You keep throwing up this crap about placing a bet on the outcome as if a persons opinion can only be considered so long as they are prepared to back it up with a wager. So then, how much is your opinion worth? $1…$10…$100? How much does it take to shut you up? $20,000 or perhaps $200,000. Judging by your attitude to anyone who disagrees with you, they would be hard pressed to collect on any wager made with you, so cut the crap and debate the issue without the childish “do ya wanna bet on it!” shite.

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