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I’m afraid that the current climate optimum is coming to an end and we will go back to the icebox climate of the 1970s. 🙁
Very unlikely, so not to worry.
R Gates be careful saying things like that, winters are still killers.
Why?
Continued forcing from the highest GH gas concentrations in at least 800,000 years makes a retutn to LIA conditions unlikely. Still, a series of large volcanic eruptions could change those odds.
It will happen during 2020s. Bet on that…
Mr. Gates,
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1997/mean:5/mean:10/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1998/trend/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:2009/trend/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:2010/trend/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1997
Where’s my AGW? Britain has had the crappiest summer in 40 years! Even the Guardian published that!!
Have a good swat.
http://www.warwickhughes.com/hoyt/scorecard.htm
pff, farmers, they’re never happy. Too hot, too cold, too wet, too dry. Yield is low, yield is high but then prices are low, etc. etc. Just like climate alarmists… 😛
Funny that this article was written just before the massive warm up. Also of course we now have a pretty good idea what caused the 1940 to 1970s cooling.
No you don’t. You have no idea what caused the 1910-1945 warming, or the subsequent cooling.
Please tell us then, because no scientists can.
Paul,
There has been a whole body of research related to this period, with much of it pointed back to aerosols. Some research hinted at the cycles of the AMO, but it seems even the AMO has a strong component that is driven by both natural and Anthropogenic aerosols.
See: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v484/n7393/full/nature10946.html
The fact is that the period of 1940-1970’s saw a rapid increase in anthropogenic aerosol emissions and their is now the studied effect of these aerosols on the AMO and NH climate. Certainly there may have been other influences to the cooling during the 1940-1970’s, but aerosols are a big component. 1970 saw the Clean Air Act passed in the U.S., aerosols began to decrease, and the underlying warming from CO2 increases revealed itself.
Fast forward to 2000-2010. Rapid industrialization of Asia, the Asian brown cloud (i.e. aerosols) become an issue, and tropospheric temperatures flatten a bit.
Skeptics hate this idea– maybe because it makes so much sense.
What caused the record heat of the 1930s? Anti-aerosols?
Straight off this “paper” states: “Systematic climate shifts have been linked to multidecadal variability in observed sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean1”
This below shows the light bands water allows to penetrate:
http://www.klimaatfraude.info/images/sverdrup.gif
And this is a table of the absorption/re-fluorescence bands:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Atmospheric_Transmission.png
So where is our “radiative forcing”? Seawater is opaque to the re-radiating frequencies.
Don’t forget, it’s not to scale. The 255K band is about 1/15 the amplitude of the 5525K band and occurs all the way up to space. As you can also see, absorption by C02 is 100%. The bandwidth will add another 6% if we increase C02 from our 0.004%, to Venus or Mars’ 93.6%. Proof of absorption openly offered on the ‘net by Venus/Martian space probes.
The heating via re-radiation of the air is incompatible to absorption in the sea unless by direct contact (conduction).
Now please enlighten us. At the frequencies C02 absorbs heat and makes the stratosphere hot (a fact which exists at 0.015C), (http://www.warwickhughes.com/hoyt/scorecard.htm)
How does this penetrate into the water which has a specific heat enthalpy of 4.2KJ/Kg. Where air is 1Kj/Kg. Note, I said Kg of air! (1.225 kg/m3 ON THE GROUND!). i.e. 1/5,145 or 0.0002 at best, maybe 1/10,000, 0.0001 in a cloud. So this heating comes with hot rain? Not a chance and the seas average 3 miles deep.
Heating the seas using the GW theory is like pushing a Saturn5 rocket with a pin.
Nay, pulling backwards! The stoppage of light and high altitude retransmission to space should be cooling the seas!
Yet it is clearly the sea which is melting the Arctic via the Gulf stream – Freak summer storms notwithstanding. Someone turned the kettle back on in 1750. Mauna Loa proves that with the cyclical out gassing from the sea fully out of step of human consumption. The kettle is making those crackling noises but its far from boiling!
Expect silence at this point… you’ll never get reasonable answers… but it’s fun to keep asking.
Yes I’ve read a few of “R. Gates” comments and it’s fairly clear he types authoritatively on subjects he has no clue about. He even predicts the future.
Last night Britain had the coldest August night for 40 years –
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/aug/31/britain-coldest-august-evening-thursday?newsfeed=true
Shout it loud – “Where’s my global warming?”
Because of the imminent shift of the arctic oscillation into the negative mode, the jet stream is moving south allowing cold arctic air flowing into Europe. Along with all the feedback loops we can expect more and more of this weather in the coming decades and a possible return of the (Little) Ice Age. And the warmistas keep talking about rising temps!
Not likely to return to LIA conditions. More likely Miocene warmth is in our future.
As we’ll all be long dead by then, we can all make silly predictions that we won’t have to justify.
Perhaps, more relevantly, with your crystal ball you could tell us what the global temperature will be for the next five years.
Be warned – the Met Office’s current forecast for this is hopelessly overstated.
Global temperatures over 5 years far too subject to natural variability. Predicting it is nothing short of a guess. A few good volcanoes or strong El Nino (or lack thereof) and temperatures can swing wildly.
Now, over the next 10 to 20 years, expect warmer temperatures, and of course, we’ll be well into our ice-free summer Arctic ocean period by then.
R Gates is a prophet. 😉
Mr. Gates,
Britain is not volcanic nor have we any odd sea temperatures. The gulf stream is working too well and the last Icelandic outbreak cooled nobody down.
Dry clear air gave some of us the deep summer cold because C02 is not nearly effective enough. The rest is all in your imagination.
The current temp graph is virtually a carbon copy of this one of 1975 where the 1998 spike is that one of 1938.
We are not 37 years further yet but anyone taking bets that the temp will go along the same line, more or less, till 2035?
I remember in the late 60’s, early 70’s the price of our “spuds” hitting the roof because they were frozen into the ground and spoiled. Price rocketed. The farmers stored them over winter after digging them up they were laid on a bed of straw, a bit more on top then soil. All in long rows by machine to preserve them over winter.
This food insecurity actually convinced many we needed the “Common Market” (EU) so Ted the weasel Heath signed us into Hitlers dream.
My parents being tory were mortified.