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Reblogged this on Climate Ponderings.
Steve, will they say a 48 MPH hurricane hit Florida and broke the 7 year record?
Probably
Again, going by weather stations alone to determine maximum tropical cyclone winds is simply stupid.
Key West was not where the center of the storm was.
The storm isn’t completely passed Key West.
The winds from the storm were measured by aircraft over the ocean to have surface winds up to 70+ mph (look at the dropsondes if you know how to read them)
By your logic, only a few dozen locations in March 1993 got over a foot of snow since there were only that many official weather stations to record it. Then again, you often point to one spot on the summit of greenland to determine the entire weather of the entire island, so I guess this is your logic, indeed.
Oh, and people who are trying to talk sense into you are not ‘spam’. We’re trying to talk sense into you.
Is the centre of the storm where the highest winds are?
Do you understand the difference between verbs & prepositions?
Do you know the difference between recorded & estimated? (I know, verbs again. Or are they prepositions? Oh know! Can you explain the difference two me?)
Then take it up with Steven, not me.
Sometimes the highest winds are near the center, sometimes they’re not. However, you aren’t going to have buoys and weather stations at all points around a storm. Hurricane Hunters will, however, actively fly around the storm to find the highest pockets of wind – so it’s better to go by that data than weather stations if the storm is over water.
Hurricane hunters don’t estimate wind speeds. They record them.
“(I know, verbs again. Or are they prepositions? Oh know! Can you explain the difference two me?)”
Your command of English isn’t enough for that joke to make sense or to even be funny.
By the way, Steven is the one who tries to find a weather station as close as he can to the center of a storm to determine its maximum wind speed. He did that with Irene, and he’s doing that with Isaac.
So, you can’t answer even one question. Good to know.
“So, you can’t answer even one question. Good to know.”
I answered the only relevant question you asked. Take up your arguments with Steven, not me.
Also, work on your English a bit more. Some words can be more than one part of speech, like “damn”.
It’s not my fault you can’t even tell which verb you used in place of a preposition. Good luck in college!
Wrong.
Look at the post. He is doing that with Isaac. He found a weather station in Key West and he’s determining the entire strength of the storm based on that.
Since I can conclude that you’re either trolling or in an alternate dimension, I will probably ignore the rest of your posts.
That is not what he is doing. Try reading again.
*looks at your name*
Oh you’re a dick alright. It’s almost your middle name.
It is you who cannot read. Let me clarify this for you. Steven ignored ground reports of 80mph winds and other recorded winds of 80mph and went solely on official weather stations or stations from weather underground to determine its land falling strength. He also ignored any evidence that disagreed with his conclusion – including a ground assessment done by NOAA.
Steven thinks the NHC is blowing this storms strength out of proportion and saying its wind speeds are not really what it has. He hasn’t bothered to look at the RECORDED data from the hurricane hunters or even buoy readings for that matter.
This is typical of what he does.
^^ For this post, the 80mph references were for Hurricane Irene last year.
No, he did not.
Is a hurricane determined by wind gusts or sustained winds?
He did dude. Search this blog.
80mph sustained winds were recorded with Irene, and the results were found on the ground after the storm was over. It was also recorded with dropsonde readings before it made landfall and was recorded with SMFR data.
You’ve chosen a screen handle after a cartoon character. A cartoon character on a kids show about the Simpsons in space. Not only are you ignorant & uncultured, you’re also wholly unaware of it. Just noting that.
Go on. Where’s the citation?
” A cartoon character on a kids show about the Simpsons in space.”
Huh? Did you even look it up? That’s not even close to being correct. It’s not the simpsons, and it’s not in space. What are you smoking?
“Go on. Where’s the citation?”
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL092011_Irene.pdf
“Irene made landfall near Cape Lookout, North Carolina at 1200 UTC 27 August with an intensity of 75 kt, producing category 1 hurricane-force winds within a swath primarily to the east of the center over the North Carolina sounds and the Outer Banks.”
Are you mental Frylock? The map shows wind speeds for all of South Florida
Drudge predicts disaster: http://easycaptures.com/fs/uploaded/639/4146244558.jpg
But wait, Drudge is a conservative media outlet…
Actually, if this thing does strengthen into a Major it could be pretty rough.
Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.
Exactly. You have to look at things the way they really are. If the NHC shows their dropsonde data and it proves the winds of a tropical cyclone are X, you cannot say they are Y by cherry picking your own data (like a single weather station from Key West).
Hi. You seemed to still be confused about the difference between recorded & estimated.
The NHC uses dropsondes to record wind speeds, among other things. They use the recorded wind speeds to estimate the 10m winds.
Now please show the class where on the doll the 10m wind estimates touched you.
Lol!!!
LOL!!
And what would that ‘sense’ be? That this storm was born out of our CO2?
63 mph reported at a buoy about SE of Key West.
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=MKRAU&day=26&month=08&year=2012
That is a gust Travis. Peak sustained wind speed was 51 MPH
Get a clue
Steven,
I have a clue, thank you. If it had been a gust, then the 63.0mph would have showed up next to “Wind Gust.” As you can clearly see in the chart, the 63.0mph is in the same row as “Wind Speed” in the “High” column, indicating that the highest sustained wind on August 26th was 63.0mph. Were you looking at the current wind speed instead?
Sounds lethal. We are all doomed
Didn’t say it was.
Travis,
Why is the “Wind Gust” column 0.0mph?
Presumably that buoy does not keep a record of wind gusts, only sustained winds.
I see. Any peer-reviewed paper to back that claim up?
Do you need peer review to tell you that the 63.0mph was reported as a wind speed and not a wind gust?
I don’t. But by your own standards, you do.
Pony up, or shut up, science boy.
…right….I’ll get right on that.
Man, good peer-reviewed link there, science boy. I can sure tell you know what you’re talking about when you say you know why the station doesn’t record wind gusts.
A visual comparison: http://franklinwpierce.tumblr.com/post/30322795541/hmm-i-wonder-if-theres-a-difference-in-how-these
Two buoys now reporting 63mph. The latest NHC update has wind speeds of 60, so NHC may be underestimating storm strength slightly.
Steven will probably call you an idiot and think your post is spam for showing he was wrong.
Good luck!
Frylock
do you post comments on the internet under other names also?
That’s not too surprising. The wind analysis has been showing a small area of 55-knot winds (southeast of Key West at 1930z). Something between the NHC’s 60 mph figure of 5 pm and the wind analysis showing 65 mph is probably not very unexpected. The storm may be slowly strengthening, as its pressure has dropped a little to 992 mb.
The NHC’s 8 pm update now reflect the data showing maximum sustained winds of 65 mph.
Well, now that you know that, go & use your newfound knowledge for good.
That doesn’t even make any sense. Now that I know that? “Now”? Um, the posts I made in this thread before you even replied indicated I was aware of that. I pointed it out.
You are either not sober or are a troll.
I thought you said you weren’t going to respond to trolls, dummy.
I said probably. Learn to read.
You probably won’t learn to read. That’s a fact.
That doesn’t even make sense for a comeback.
I thought you said you weren’t going to respond to trolls? Are you threatening to take your toys and stomp out? Because all of our hearts will be broken.
Also, somebody still can’t figure out what the verb they used in place of a preposition was. Must be tough trying to pretend to an education.
It seems the sarcasm inherent in this post completely flew over the top of Frylock’s head…
Steven has no valid point because he’s not basing it in reality. So let me get this straight, when Steven posts, it’s automatically right, except when he is shown to be wrong, then it must be sarcasm.
It’s as bad as Rush Limbaugh’s cop out to say “I’m just being absurd to be absurd” when he is shown to be wrong.
Nobody cares about your opinions of others. You’re an anonymous internet troll. If you want to fight the evil denier community, keep your opinions to yourself and communicate factual information backed up by citations. Otherwise readers will (correctly) assume you’re a dick.
How long will it take until some climastrologist claims an increasing trend in US hurricane strikes over the last seven years?
OMG! OMG! Issac has hit Key West han has devastated many palm fronds! Many pictures on ABC news of some palm fronds laying on the ground!!! What next?? Beach erosion??
You have such a fine-tuned sense of humour, it’s a shock you don’t get laid more often.
“You have such a fine-tuned sense of humour, it’s a shock you don’t get laid more often.”
I’m familiar with jokes. I have a great sense of humor. That wasn’t a joke.
I’d love to hear your version of The Aristocrats.
It involves someone who failed 9th-grade English 3 times trying to gobble out, “D’yuh wunt frahs wit dat?” through his tongue peircing.
Yeah, it’s as I thought, it would be a horrible version and not be very funny. Somehow I don’t think you know what the Aristocrats is.
Yeah, I probably don’t know what a Batman is, or what a Garanimals is. The Transformers? Way over my head. Oh, help! I can’t keep up with all the obscure pop-culture references like Religulous, & Shamela.
Tool.
Well considering that your attempt at construction of it wouldn’t have made an aristocrats joke that would have actually made sense, I’m pretty sure you didn’t look it up.
You watched a movie that was seen by hundreds of thousands of comedians about comedians telling a particular “joke”. I get it. It makes you terribly culturally aware. I get it. You’re pretty sure that I’ve never seen the movie, or spent any time hanging out at low-end open-mic night comedy clubs getting to know comics, drinking with comics, crashing on couches, waking up with hangovers. I get it. You’re pretty sure I’ve never seen comics doing it live at open-mic nights. I get it. You’re pretty sure it just went over my head & you’ve exposed us all to a cultural reference no-one on some weblog would have ever seen without your unique & special movie-watching ability. I get it.
I’m sure that the Spice Girls movie would have been just as meaningful to you, had you seen it. You are special. No one else has every seen reality from your perspective. You are unique. Your diazepam is running low: better go talk to your health-care provider.
Yes, that’s a summary. It doesn’t state where that 75kt wind speed was recorded.
From figure 3 the highest sustained wind recorded in NC was 63kt. Not 80, as you have claimed.
Highest sustained wind in VA: 58kt. Not 80, as you have claimed.
Highest sustained wind in MD: 53kt. Not 80, as you have claimed.
Highest sustained wind in NJ: 51kt. Not 80, as you have claimed.
Highest sustained wind in NY: 45kt. Not 80, as you have claimed.
Highest sustained wind in CT: 40kt. Not 80, as you have claimed.
Did you even read the fucking pdf you linked? Are you eyes brown?
Hey, take it down a notch … This fry dick looks to be a mentally unarmed man.
The PDF tells you where it happened. 63 knots is 72mph. If you researched it you would have found that the NHC found a swath of 85mph winds on the outer banks during the post-analysis.
Oh, good, post-disaster reconstructions. These are valid to how many decimal places?
Very accurate. For example, with tornadoes, it’s the only way to know what really happened on the ground. For hurricanes, it’s valuable because like I said weather stations are sparse, and usually fail in even tropical storms.
The Fujita rating for tornadoes is determined directly by the damage caused.
Come now, you mentally defective troll: how many decimal places in “Very”?
You have no clue how forensic science works.
Frylock,
You have no clue how to read a map. The map shows wind speeds for all of south Florida.
Stop being a moron.
I may or may not know “forensic science” from any other term that a comeback master like Frylock might pull out of his ass, but if you’re suggesting that the people who reconstruct wind-speed from damage don’t understand decimal places or significant digits, you might be more right than you know.
How dare you ask Frylock for actual data!
The highest reported sustained windspeed from the official NOAA Cape Lookout station, yes at 10m, was 58 knots or 67mph.
You can verify this by looking at the historical windspeed record for this station on the NOAA NDBC website. Oh, wait a minute, you can’t verify it there because the 2011 historical data is not available. That’s strange, the 2011 data is available for all the other nearby stations. I guess you’ll have to verify it by my screen capture of the NOAA data that I made last year during Irene.
Now, you can find the Beaufort (only 10mi from Cape Lookout) data, but no hurricane force winds there. How about the next station up the coast to the north along the storm track, Hatteras, HCGN7? Nope no sustained hurricane force winds there either. Nowhere else up the coast either. The winds may have been hurricane force up where the reconnaissance plane was flying, or calculated/modeled, but not down at ground(10m) level.
And did you notice that the only 2 reported sustained windspeeds of hurricane strength had an * next to them. What does that * represent? Oh yeah, ADJUSTED!!!
The closest to hurricane force winds in that report was at Duck(DUKN7) with a reported sustained windspeed of 61 knots or 70mph. But when you look at the actual reported sustained windspeeds from the NOAA historical data you get 29.9m/s or 58.1knots or 67mph. Those boys putting that report together know how to create a land falling hurricane. It only takes a few mph here & a few mph there & presto, you’ve got a Cat1!
What a pity you don’t go by weather station records alone. You also look at the damage, take into account hurricane hunter dropsondes, and SMFR data.
I’m going to stick with the NHC. They know more about hurricanes than some people on a blog – so when they change the rating at landfall I’ll side with them if and when they do.
From the report:
“Shortly before the center of Irene moved over New York City, flight-level winds measured by the reconnaissance aircraft would typically have support hurricane intensity at the surface. SFMR and dropsonde data, however, show that the standard flight level to surface wind reduction continued to be inappropriate; the observed surface wind values at that time support a 55-kt intensity. The latest observation to definitively support an analysis of hurricane intensity was an SFMR report of 66 kt well to the east of the center near 0103 UTC 28 August.”
Apparently you didn’t read all of it?
Oh, we read it alright. It’s perfectly clear.
150 years of storm mapping at a glance, exceptional visuals:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/technology/news/article.cfm?c_id=5&objectid=10829187
Well worth a look!
I’m not really following this, but I’d just like to say that if anybody is stood on the shore in Florida, relying on Steve for accurate weather information, then you could end up in contention for a Darwin award:
http://www.darwinawards.com/
Steve does have some form. So far this year, he has disappeared the midWest drought, which was news to the midwest farmers, and has still failed to spot that an area of ice the size of Western Europe disappeared up North. Then he has some strange hallucinations about cherries and Greenland, based on this sort of thing:
http://www.google.co.uk/search?q=greenland+ice+melt&hl=en&prmd=imvnsu&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=5646UM6VM4rM0QXt-YG4CQ&ved=0CDwQsAQ&biw=1024&bih=677
(He saw some of these pictures, and couldn’t understand the words in the articles next door, and now has a problem with enormous imaginary cherries. Don’t pry. It’s a very sad condition.)
So, really, If you are in this thing’s way, I would really recommend listening to other sources of information. Steve has a few issues with reality.
jak, you don’t know jack about what Steve is doing. Interpretive skills by alarmists are very low. He’s saying, in so many words, that we don’t have to piss ourselves every time weather happens. My Goodness you peoples mom’s must be very upset! Did they just give up and buy huggies?
Suyts.
You’ve nailed it. Interpretive skills by alarmists are very low.
I find it an outright Joke. That some of these iconic Alarmist Climatogists don’t even have degrees in meteorology. Meteorolgy= weather interpretation. 🙂
but I think jak and company know these weather events are not that bad. So they scream louder, post more comments. They are propagandizing.
The SST’s between the storms are as different as the 200mbar, 500mbar and 700mbar wind speeds and temperatures.
14″ below the surface doesn’t look like it did in years past, now does it.
Look at the near shore SST’s (out to 140 miles) fellas.
jak says:
August 26, 2012 at 11:25 pm
“So, really, If you are in this thing’s way, I would really recommend listening to other sources of information. Steve has a few issues with reality.”
===============
Your accent tells a tale.
We will sort it out, just you watch.
I hope you will, but judging by a lot of posts in this thread many people are reading Goddard’s posts hearing just what they want to hear. Just like Steven, they’re not interested in challenging their way of thinking.
No Frylock, many of us have actually looked at the actual data, not an inaccurate summary report. But we are open to consider actual data. Care to point to any real data rather than just making baseless allegations?
Frylock
Do you post comments on the internet under other names? Or is this the only one you use.
OldOne
Frylock isn’t the only one that makes claims without having data.
Amino,
I’m well aware of that. Most CAGW zealots do it. They have to because if they actually used real empirical data instead of their faulty models & *adjusted* data, they would recognize it’s hyped alarmism.
Frylock insists that the world should crap themselves in unison with him…. because….. well I don’t know why.
Storms in Florida and the gulf. How unusual.
Read the report:
“Shortly before the center of Irene moved over New York City, flight-level winds measured by the reconnaissance aircraft would typically have support hurricane intensity at the surface. SFMR and dropsonde data, however, show that the standard flight level to surface wind reduction continued to be inappropriate; the observed surface wind values at that time support a 55-kt intensity. The latest observation to definitively support an analysis of hurricane intensity was an SFMR report of 66 kt well to the east of the center near 0103 UTC 28 August.”
Should I take that as a physical threat? Just asking…
Maybe chill out a bit, dude. Steve rips the piss out of Jim Hansen. I rip the piss out of Steve. So it goes.
If you don’t think it’s funny, don’t watch. There are other sites on the intertube with actual information on them. This is just a comedy site. I bet “Steven” is actually an alias for a comedy creation from “theonion” anyway.
Nobody could really be that dumb!
jak
do you post comments on the internet under other names? Or, is this the only one you use?
Jak
Also,do you post comments on this blog using other names? Or is this the only one.
I also post under “Amino Acids in Meteorites”. But I only use that one for extreme gay porn S/M sites. I’m quite well known.
Look, there follows an anagram; e j o k.
Geddit?
Anyway, why the sudden interest in my personal life?
Oh jak, I’m sure you should take it how ever your pathetic little Weltanschauung allows. We’ll bring plenty of popped corn.
When jak thinks he’s been asked about his personal life, he diverts into homophobic rants about gay S&M. Interesting.
jak
so the answer is no? You don’t post comment under other names?
It has nothing to do with your personal life.
jak harms his on image by being so silly.
Stark Dickflüssig
jak doesn’t think he’s being asked about his personal life. He is diverting from answering the question.
Once again, we find ourselves in perfect agreement. I’m fairly sure the unsolicited gay S&M stuff was just a passing fancy on his part, though. 😉
I think it was juvenile. I think he’s ThePhDScientist. And I think he’s used several names to post comments here and elsewhere on the internet.
This reminds me of one that went by the handle Questioner a few years ago at Climate Realists.
It could be. How can we know for sure? I know he avoided answering me. Smacks of guilt.
@Stark
ROFL
According to the latest it may well make landfall over Galveston on Wednesday. It is fast heading to the West rather than turning North as they expected and the wind speed has not increased as much as they wanted.
The National Hurricane Center really knows how to forecast Tropical storms! 😉
I think Steven is right, there is pressure to make global warming appear to be happening, especially with a Democrat President, and one that is already pushing “green” money programs (which are all failing and costing billions).
It is important to enhance the projected expectations and hope people do not look to close at the actual figures related to these storms. There is equal chance this being a repeat of Irene, but in the Gulf rather than along the Atlantic Sea Board. A couple of degrees more to the West will have it making land fall in Mexico.
I think NHC gets a bonus from the insurance companies and disaster preparedness groups.
I agree there appears to be pressure being applied to make AGW seem real, rather than the fairy tale it really is.
Funding to government agencies has to be connected to the politics of those in power controlling the money.
Weather channel liar just said how Key West was lucky, town got lashed out by 72 MPH high winds , but no damage was reported.
They are dying to see hurricanes to blame it on humans and SUV’s..