Temperatures have dropped below freezing north of 80N for the winter
COI | Centre for Ocean and Ice | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut
And most of the Arctic Basin is covered with ice, much of it 3-5 metres thick.
Summer is too short to produce an ice-free Arctic – without a radical change in climate.
Talk about an ice-free Arctic should be discussed in supermarket tabloids, not scientific publications.
I don’t know what the arctic ice is going to do . I’ve read literature and looked at satellite photos and maps and I don’t believe , from the information I’ve gathered , that we are likely to ever see an ice free arctic. I will not bet on it because the odds cannot be controlled. If I’m going to bet my hard earned money I want a sure thing . Well I still buy an occassional lottery ticket , hey somebody has to win . Hahahahahaha But the ice will do what it will do and co2 has nothing to do with it. But as far as the nuts and their screams of ice free arctic , well consider the source and laugh and truck on.
First there will have to be an ice free north pole as a exciting event (for whatever cause) before the total ice free arctic.
There will be have to be a lot more spring melt rate to start happening for a totally ice free arctic I agree as the melt season is still short. The trend is still downwards in the summer though.
Rahmsdorf even predicted an ice free winter. Yeah.
There best the ice free Arctic crowd can do is say it will happen in maybe 30 to 50 years. That forecast is meaningless at present time, since it can’t be proved or disproved for another 30 to 50 years.
Eppur si scioglie.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php
You are welcome for this
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2012/08/13/growth-of-thick-ice-along-the-canadian-coast-since-2010/
Steven
You have regularly posted comments calling on people to place a wager with you about the future ice quantity in the Arctic. Your particular hobby horse is Ice Extent; particularly from JAXA.
I am not willing to place a bet on Ice Extent since it is far too subject to the vagaries of seasonal weather patterns, how fragmented the ice is etc
However, I am willing to offer a counter wager that has more relevence in a thermodynamic sense.
I will offer you a wager on the ice volume value calculated by PIOMas for the peak of the melt season this year. The values calculated by PIOMas have been ‘anchored’ by earlier results from IceSAT. And just recently the data from CryoSat 2 is providing pretty good confirmation of the PIOMas data. So I am comfortable with the quality of their data. And Ice Volume is far and away the key measure of what is happening in the Arctic.
So the wager is this:
If the PIOMas data for minimum volume this year is lower than any previous year in their records, I win. If it is greater, you win. We will assess this in early October after PIOMas have released their data for the September period.
To sweeten the pot, I am willing to offer 2:1 odds. If you win, I will pay you $2000. If I win you will pay me $1000 (just to clarify in an international world, that is US dollars)
I have one other condition for this wager. Whatever the outcome, you will publicise the outcome on your blog. If you win you will publicise it. If you lose, equally you will publicise it. No money will change hands without public recognition of the facts of this on this blog.
Do we have a bet?
PIOMAS is complete crap.
PIOMAS is a computer model filled with garbage data, and anything it shows should be refuted as nonsense, because you put garbage in, you get garbage out.
cyrosat isn’t
Nice, not a single attempt to refute the point of this article.
I also have a fun bet. Looking at all the graphs and data sets we have the following players:
DMI daily extent
NSIDC daily extent
NSIDC monthly extent
Uni Bremen daily extent
IJIS daily extent
Cryosphere Today daily area
PIOMAS daily volume
I think an exciting bet would be to say that 6 out of these 7 will break the 2007/2011 record. I’d be willing to put 50 USD on that. How about it, Steve? I actually think you have a good chance of winning, what with all those holes in the pack that could soon be freezing over under the right weather conditions.
Nice. Not a single attempt to refute the point of this article so far.
I could resurrect Newton, Einstein and Feynman and let them refute the article, and you would call them morons. There’s absolutely no use. If it were the year 2000 now, you’d be saying that it’s plain stupidity to think that 2007, 2011 or 2012 could happen.
How about my fun bet? Just fifty bucks, and a good chance of winning. Remember, the melting season will be the shortest ever after this winter storm.
Nice. Not a single attempt to refute the point of this article.
Funny thing is all of those ice sites have a clear cut pro AGW agenda except DMI. “2007/2011 record.” You are full of it, 2007 was the lowest year, 2011 was NOT.
What is there to refute? You provide hardly any substance. Just a temperature graph produced by a model (not actual observed temps) and an extent map. Based on that you are 100% sure, like a true skeptic, that an ice-free Arctic could ever come about. More than this I cannot say about it. If you have any numbers or an actual watertight theory why an ice-free Arctic couldn’t come about, I will try to refute. Or maybe I’ll agree if you have a convincing case.
So either you answer my question about that bet, or please, open a special thread.
Why Talking About An Ice Free Arctic is Just Plain Stupidity
The ice is 97% below water and the water is warm. Melting will continue until air temperatures are cold enough to counteract the warm water. Air temperatures slightly below freezing will not stop the melting.
No doubt that five meter thick ice along the Canadian Coast will melt in the next few weeks.
The melting will certainly begin to slow down in the coming days and weeks, thus no ice free arctic anytime soon.
True to some extent, but the sudden drop in ice extent was because of wind compaction.
The Wegener Institute reported that they had found up to 12 meter thick ice when they were flying their fancy hot rod C-47.
One square meter of 12 meter thick ice equals 12 square meters of one meter thick ice, you know.
Thanks, Steve. Straightforward, honest and helpful as ever.
I’m curious how people perceive this. People who come to Steven’s blog regularly, what do you think about Steve’s dodging my simple bet proposal? He could just answer with a yes or no, right? Don’t you think the way he acts is a bit childish?
Nice. Not a single attempt to refute the point of this article so far..
Steve, you’re an asshole of a wanker. Refute that point.
Well , I have a scenareo to offer . I f there is a nuclear bomb loaded missle attack launched on the US , and it is successfull , then I predict the arctic will be ice free . And I will bet every penny I have on that . Of course collecting will be a problam. You do note that all these bet offers made by these guys aren’t connected to your original bet offer don’t you Steven ? So far I don’t recall anyone accepting your bet offering in it’s original terms.
I wish the arctic would just get it over with. That way we would have access to more oil and gas. I’d like to pay less at the pump.
I agree, I hate ice and snow, get rid of the it.
I would agree, an ice free arctic will do very little in the way of contributing to sea level rise, and we could drill for oil, and make gas a lot cheaper. Sea level rise would miniscule at best, because we are seeing increases in ice over Antarctica which counter weights whatever loss occurs in the northern hemisphere.
It’ll be September soon enough, the days of 24 hour sunlight a very distant memory.
Worrying about sea ice, is a complete red herring, so what if the sea ice is declining, it will come back and soon, meanwhile the Antarctic is doing just fine.
Jaxa, piomass, NOAA, Boulder – so effin what – not one of you bods knows, can even guess at what is really happening up there [Arctic Ocean], so cut the crap.
PS – it ain’t MMCO2.
They tried to figure out ways to melt it in earlier decades. What great scientific discovery came about that made them decide that melting would be bad instead of good? Or was it just a gigantic “oops”? When extreme cold sets in, they will be back trying to melt it again.
I find the title a tad misleading. As only data from 2012 are shown, I’d say the only valid conclusion is: “Talking About An Ice Free Arctic in 2012 is Just Plain Stupidity”
And nobody could argue with that…
I provided a link to all other years going back to the 1950s. You might want to look at that before commenting.
Indeed those show little change over the last 50 years in (air?) temperature at 80dg latitude. However, how does that prove against ice-free summers? I guess ice melt depends more on sea water temperature and insolation.
Temperatures at the North Pole are currently about -5C Summer is too short to get an ice-free Arctic