Our friends have been desperate for an El Nino to get their flaccid global temperature numbers up, but they only got about three weeks of El Nino in July.
Disrupting the Borg is expensive and time consuming!
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I just read two days ago that el Nino is supposed to get stronger. But I can look at the graphs for myself.and I see red is fading and blue is growing in this one (see dates to left of graphs):
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/sub_surf_mon.gif
I see La Nina.
There I go again, looking at the data for myself. Observe me and learn Gondo.
Weak El Nino favors snow for DC. I can hope anyhow, especially with Joe B. calling for a bad winter.
It can re surge again so lets not get carried away yet.
I won’t get carried away now or later.
After two months of beautiful sunny weather we have overcast this morning . This has been an excellant year for the stone fruit here in northwest Oregon . Quality and quanity have been right up there with the best in memory and we might even make a profit . Our seasonal early fall rains will probably come in soon and then we will have our dry spell again for a while . We are blessed here with weather that is somewhat predictable and favorable to farming and we are thankfull . We are watching to see if we get the earlier cold we have been experiencing the last few years that has shortened our apple season and are mindfull of Joe Bastardi’s prediction . He has been right about it for the last four years as it has been shorter for that length of time . I would rather he be wrong about it as an extended season would be beneficial to us but the science seems to back his claim . More time will tell , and with his predictions being in foreseable time periods at least most people will live to know if they are correct . Unlike the claims of the warmists .
Does anyone else find it ironic that the only people hoping for a super ElNino and for global warming to come roaring back are the very ones who tell us it spells doom for mankind and we must sacrifice all to prevent it ?
This article has no real scientific fact in it. I can say as a climate scientist, there is nothing particulary interesting about ENSO fluctuations. At this time, we are in a colder phase of the PDO. The only thing that happens if El Nino occurs is a spike in temperatures. In reality, this means nothing to us and society as a whole. What’s important to us is the underlying trend carrying through the natural variability. In fact, last year was the the warmest La Nina year on record. The global warming signal is still there and strong.
I suggest you get on the phone with james hansen and the UK met office and explain this to them right away.
He he,
I doubt he will understand your post because he is a climate scientist.
Andrew says:
September 9, 2012 at 9:18 pm
“The global warming signal is still there and strong.”
Could you clarify the difference between strong and weak AGW signals or just a plain wild assed guess? It’s pretty hard to notice. I’m guessing having warm la nina’s is w/o precedent?
You just don’t get it Eric. Only the Chosen may feel the signal emanating from the data set. The Deniers of Gaia are denied such visions.
PS – Landscheidt predicted cooling to occur to a minimum around 2030 :-
“We need not wait until 2030 to see whether the forecast of the next deep Gleissberg minimum is correct. A declining trend in solar activity and global temperature should become manifest long before the deepest point in the development. The current 11-year sunspot cycle 23 with its considerably weaker activity seems to be a first indication of the new trend, especially as it was predicted on the basis of solar motion cycles two decades ago. As to temperature, only El Niño periods should interrupt the downward trend, but even El Niños should become less frequent and strong. The outcome of this further long-range climate forecast solely based on solar activity may be considered to be a touchstone of the IPCC’s hypothesis of man-made global warming. ”
Seems there could be interesting times coming – it is also interesting that Russian climate scientists claim a similar outlook.
Since Landscheidt died in 2004 the above quoted paragraph seems to have more validity than not – all I’m saying.
How anyone can dismiss facts that tie in with real scientific observations – eg ElNino/LaNina cycles – in favour of an inert gas with unremarkable properties shows what “religious” zealots climate spruikers have become.
Any fool with even basic knowledge can see water is the principle weather or climate maker on Earth – every weather event is associated with the transferrance of the solar energy by water and its phase changes.
Go “climate scientists” – there is every chance you will be hiding under rocks in the not too distant future – not because you will be threatened but to hide your embarrassed faces when the church crumbles under the weight of its own hypocrisy.
The el nino threshold is at .5 Moderate is 1. This is at best a weak to moderate central Pacific based nino, ( nino3.4) which if I am correct, should produce a winter much more like what we saw in 02-03 and 09-10.. Of course the warmingistas will blame on global warming. The el ninos in the cold pdo are mere responses to the overall drop that is occurring, a reaction to the cold that naturally has to occur. They are not like the ones Hansen and his bunch pray for that occur in the warm PDO. But lets not downplay the fact it is there in enso 3.4.. but is of the genre of the type that can produce a cold US winter. The prayer for ninos by warmingistas are an admission that the oceans do drive the temps, and we should drive that point home rather than trying to stop what should come, and then go by next year. It is natural, cyclical, and all part of the step down process that we should all enjoy watching over the years.. if we still have any way of watching it left given the draconian policies of the AGW crowd
ciao
JB
Grist has a survey showing 19% of Republicans ,46% of Democrats, 33% of Independents rate global warming as important issue, but it still was the 2nd least important, beating out the bottom concern, “helping to bring democracy to other countries.” Any wonder why “climate change” is quickly glossed over by the politicians? People are sick of these loony doomsayers. It’s been going on so long, some of today’s climate activists weren’t even born when this all started and now they are telling us what to do. Amazing. They apparently have to have the threat of mass destruction to motivate them and common everyday problems just aren’t enough.