One minor problem with this theory is that there isn’t any missing Arctic ice.
COI | Centre for Ocean and Ice | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut
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In the same way that temperatures have not risen due to natural variability although we are now at solar max and it’s been ENSO neutral for a year.
The term is La’Nada!
El’Nino, La’Nada, La’Nina! 😉 The three states of ENSO!
The current state of Solar activity gives a new meaning to Solar Max! 😉
There was some missing ice, on the Eurasian side of the Arctic, last Autumn. That increased expanse of open ocean increased evaporation from the water (evaporatively cooling it), which, in turn, increased lake/ocean-effect snow in northern Asia and Europe (increasing albedo and thereby cooling it through the Winter and into the Spring). That’s two more negative (stabilizing) temperature feedback mechanisms, by which warming of the planet causes cooling of the planet, reducing overall temperature change.
The climate alarmists seem oblivious to such negative feedback mechanisms, but meteorologists aren’t. Here’s meteorologist Tom Wysmuller’s very interesting lecture on the topic, starting at 46:20.
The vapor pressure of water just above the freezing point is extremely low. The amount of evaporation was minimal. Their explanation is nonsense.
Steve, have you watched Wysmuller’s lecture? You replied only about 4 minutes after I commented, and his lecture is about a half-hour long (plus Q&A time at the end).
“Minimal” evaporation compared to what? Not compared to evaporation from frozen water. Cold liquid water evaporates faster than frozen water sublimates even without agitation; add wave action, and it increases. I grew up mostly in Michigan, and the western Lower Peninsula got a lot more snow than the rest of the State, because it is downwind of frigid Lake Michigan.
Buffalo, NY also famously gets a great deal of lake effect snow, because it is downwind from frigid Lake Erie. In a bad year, the snow can be extreme, as Leonard Nimoy describes very well starting at the 36 second mark in this video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nprY2jSI0Ds#t=36s
That is a very localized effect which occurs within a few tens of miles of the lake edge. It doesn’t represent a large amount of moisture, and creates equilibrium from the deficiency on the other side of the lake. Buffalo gets lots of snow, and Hamilton, Ontario gets very little.
How far downwind the moisture precipitates out depends on wind and temperature patterns, but it can extend farther than a few tens of miles. Here’s a map of lake-effect snow areas in the Great Lakes region, pulled from Wikipedia. As you can see, the areas are substantial, as is the amount of snow resulting from evaporation of lakewater that is just barely above the freezing point.
I FOUND THE MISSING ICE!!!
Apparently it is being trucked to St Louis by evil republicans…
http://www.arctic-icestl.com/images/photo_gallery/67_arctic_ice_fleet_mainpic.jpg
I’m still working on that missing heat…
The Nenana Ice Classic seems to be headed for a record late break-up of the river ice. It will almost certainly be in the top 5 late dates:
http://www.nenanaakiceclassic.com/2013%20Side%20B.pdf