Sea surface temperature anomalies in the northern hemisphere are dropping like a rock.
Gavin has apparently been tasked with making 2014 the hottest year aver, and this will make his work more challenging.
Disrupting the Borg is expensive and time consuming!
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Must have been windy lately
Apparently Gavin Schmidt is to climate what Lois Lerner is to tax auditing.
I thought the heat was hiding in the sea.
CO2 is pushing the heat downward, and the surface is getting colder… It must be a “bubble of CO2” over N. Pacific and N. Atlantic causing this! 🙂
CO2 is heavier than H2O.
That’s why the heat was pushed downwards. 🙂
The heat is hiding in Aus. This is the real fraud of homogenization. Somewhere in the world it is abnormally cold and in other places its abnormally hot.
I check the ENSO page on WUWT on a weekly basis and have noticed that the Atlantic went cold first followed by the Pacific. I’d love to hear Joe Bastardi’s take on this. He used the hotspot in the Gulf of Alaska to predict a cold and snowy winter in the northeast. Will his prediction change somewhat with this feature gone? What ever the outcome, I think we’ll all be in for an interesting winter. As far as causes go, has anyone checked what the arctic oscillation has been doing this fall?
Check his Saturday weatherbell.com video. He addressed nit last Sat, and said he would do more this coming Saturday after he tells his premier clients first.
I have been using your posts, among others, to help a “progressive/humans are warming/killing Earth” person become a scientific skeptic. She keeps changing the goal posts, but wherever she goes I can follow, thanks in part to your witty thoroughness. I have one question on the Unisys material, however. I used to love to look at their data, beautiful, soothing, and I hoped accurate. Due to the changes they have made, how can one know if the fuscia color is a big minus, a smaller minus, a small plus, or a huge plus. The charts seem unreadable.
The only range they use is the middle. Temperatures are exactly what they appear to be.
pyromancer76, try this:
blue around red tones — cool
yellow around red tones — warm
but I agree the repeating color bands makes it hard to read until you get used to it and can be ambigous without those small values sprikled about.
Have you seen roy Spencer’s “Why 2014 Won’t Be the Warmest Year on Record”
Roy Spencer has a good comparison of satellite to surface temperature measurements. He sums it up with a quote from economist Ronald Coase.
“If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything.”
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/10/why-2014-wont-be-the-warmest-year-on-record/
The data has been waterboarded by the NCDC, which according to Washington is legal.
Loop period spans 13 July – 19 October 2014
I saw this plunge begin about 2 – 3 weeks ago but no-one was talking about it. I went off to sunny Wales, UK this last week and didn’t have much time to look at the Unisys site. On my return this monday I was shocked at the plunge in anomolus values. I have never seen anything quite like it.
I also would love to see Joe B’s thoughts on this.
Interesting to see the Antarctic sea ice extent as well.
Normally, colder water promotes anticyclones (increases the probablility). Anticyclones in the north atlantic bring severe winters to NW Europe.
I wonder what the UK met off model will do.
UKMO have released their local authority winter forecast where they are going temps above average but do mention Atlantic sea surface temps being warmer on the west side of the ocean therefore encouraging blocking high pressure making it colder for the UK and Europe on the highs eastern side . There are several PDFs
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/publicsector/contingency-planners
The N. Atlantic is cold everywhere, there are basically no warmer regions.
The N. Pacific still has a warm region on the west coast of the US,
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif
that is probably connected with the El Nino trend of this year and also a “residual warming” left from the spike of the PDO since the end of 2013 up to ~ last August.
The main cause of the phenomenon seems to be a powerful N. Polar vortex forcing low temps over the NH oceans
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2014/10/17/gonzo-gonzalo-and-cyclone-up-vortex-down/
I saw a similar evolution of the SST, in both hemispheres, last December, during the strong Polar vortex of the last few weeks of 2013 up to ~ January 02.
Then, the temperatures returned to their normal for that period of the year in both hemispheres.
The intensity and duration of this Vortex is greater than the one of last December.
As for the cause of the phenomenon, we may think that the vortex has been there basically since the beginning of the eruption of the Bardarbunga volcano, which has had an approximately constant rate of ejected magma and gases, with SO2 emission corresponding to approx. 1.5 times the rate of the entire Europe (35 kT per day)
https://www.facebook.com/earthice.UI/posts/831459543540745
then, it’s possible to imagine some correlation between the eruption and the intensity and duration of the observed cooling.
The fact that the Atlantic cooled before the Pacific also tends to support this correlation.
The Australian BOM is still grasping at the El Nino straws, and the “Climate Council” bunch of wackos keep making Catastrophic Summer Heat and Bushfire announcements.
By the look of the charts you and Steve present, ENSO is about to rapidly head negative.
I’ll be able to smack the catastrophists around with that one in a few weeks. Cheers
I have the same impression, in particular if you consider the great chance of the PDO to bounce back to *strong negative* mode- as it usually does after a large spike- and have in sight that the positive (weak) ENSO is all but finished (not to mention solar radiations, which usually have a large drop of SSN at the end of the 3rd year of solar max- which should be more at the end of this year or beginning of 2015), it’s very, very probable IMO that (at least) a moderate La Nina would form soon.
I’m expecting this but I’m not talking about it too much, because if it happens it’ll be a big blow on the AGW scam, similar to the recovery of the Arctic ice: it’ll be a record number of years since 1950 without El Nino’s.
The alarmists will be completely unable to explain it if it happens (even using their proverbial creativity!), but right now it seems very probable indeed.
Cheers!
Has this happened at this speed (4 months) before?If in conjunction with the cooling seas of antarctica we are onto a very very significant cooling trend. Maybe the solar effect is kicking in.BTW L Svaalgard seems to have disappeared from the climate blog scene,maybe like Tamino, RC ect LOL
He’s probably wishing for the L&P effect to be confirmed in 2015. 🙂
I also would like to hear what Joe Bastardi and Joseph D’Aleo over at Weatherbell think. Their winter forecast continues to focus on warmer water up the Pacific coast to the coast of Alaska. Mr. D’Aleo even had a post on the warmer water just yesterday. http://www.weatherbell.com/premium/joe-daleo/ssta-patterns-and-the-new-jamstec
(Premium site; you’ll have to be a member, unless you can figure out how to access their free-week-trial.)
He seems to be getting his temperatures from a NCEP CDASv2 [CFS Reanalysis] map dated October 20. Is their some dispute between the makers of that map and the above map?
Nothing irks me more than when data strangely produces differing maps.
Have you seen Chiefio’s look through nullschools maps at different altitudes for wind and temperatures. Very informative and less shocking to the eye as the colors are subdued.
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2014/10/17/gonzo-gonzalo-and-cyclone-up-vortex-down/
He uses the same map.
I was poking around on all the sea-surface temperature maps over at WUWT, and something doesn’t smell right about these UNISYS maps. Maybe they have a new guy programming in the data, or some such thing. My hunch is that they have a serious glitch. It almost seems that they are comparing current temperatures from what temperatures are suppose to be in late August, and deriving the anomaly from that. That would explain why the anomaly grows by such leaps and bounds as the water naturally cools in the fall.
In any case, I’d be wary about trusting these maps. Remember, if a Skeptic makes a mistake it draws a lot of notice, while if an Alarmist makes a mistake, under the rug it goes.
Caleb, I agree with what you are saying. I think they are somehow mixing up seasonal change with the actual anomaly. If all the oceans are going that cold relative to normal that quickly, we are all in big trouble!
I’ve pointed this out before (I can’t remember where 🙁 ). If you look at the highest and lowest anomalies listed in the bottom right hand corner they are often unphysical. See the map below posted by Brian D. How can you have an anomaly range of 45.3°C? I think you could have an actual sea temperature range across the globe that goes from -1.8°C to 43.5°C but anomalies that large are simply unphysical.
Unisys maps from some time ago used to have much, much lower anomaly ranges.
I know some folks who use other SST data.
http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/oisst/navy-anom-bb.gif
There seems to be a disagreement?
Using Unysis’ other map, you can see how much colder it is along the Asian-Russian coast and Alaska. 10 to 11C below normal. Off the SE coast of South America, it gets up to 7 to 8C above normal. Other sources don’t get this cold or warm. Unysis does show the N Pac and the N Atl colder than other sources, but generally close to the same in other areas. Very interesting.
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom_new.gif
Noticed today that Unysis has changed there new anomaly map.
Wow! Maybe they’re listening to us! 🙂
The “blue oceans” in the NH now have an area equivalent to the entire N. America plus half of Asia, or more!
I’ve never seen the N. Atlantic so cold and for such a long period, in the UNYSIS charts, as it’s now.
I’ve been following their charts regularly since 2012.
Hi Steve, love your site but it looks like unisys has issued a correction of sorts:
Unisys Weather has been receiving reports of incorrect maps of the daily SST contours. The data used to make the maps are the official NOAA RTG-SST and anomaly grids, being pulled directly from the NOAA NWSTG.
We have found an issue with the color scale of the mapping, and this has caused some users to misinterpret the maps. The color scale being used by WXP is wrapping, causing the same color to appear at very low and very high ends of the color table. The color table is also stretched beyond the actual values in the SST anomaly plot. We are working to correct the color table and color bar issue.
A comparison of the Unisys generated map with the NOAA RTG-SST anomaly maps indicate the contours are in line with NOAA’s maps.
http://weather.unisys.com/news/?p=391
Thanks for the report, interesting that the “glitch” seems to be happening only in the NH, the SH anomalies seem quite normal for this time of the year.
Current map,
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif
NOAA’s map,
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/rtg_high_res/color_newdisp_anomaly_global_lat_lon_ophi0.png
Where has the Gulf Stream gone?
What with the Great Lakes pouring super cold water for two years+ into the Gulf of Mexico, this kind of cools down the Gulf Stream, no?