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45 Years Since All Scientists Agreed That Mankind Was Doomed By The Year 2000
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Ehrlich is a scientist like Hitler was a humanitarian.
And so he was absolutely right. Not because of Climate Change, but because of HOPE n CHANGE
Ehrlich received the Tyler Prize for Environmental Achievement in 1998. LOL
Ehrlich was right, obviously. Earth’s capacity to sustain any population, human or otherwise, IS limited. So far, we’ve been able to stave off an inevitable reckoning with various technological fixes like recycling, the green revolution, and genetic engineering, but only a total idiot would claim that Earth’s human population can go on growing indefinitely. In fact, all these tech fixes have just swept the problem under the rug, thereby rendering the ultimate reckoning far worse. Consider, for example, what will happen when we run out of phosphate rock reserves, which will happen well before the end of this century. Without phosphate fertilizer, Earth has enough naturally fertile land to sustain about 2 billion people. At that point, six or seven billion of us will need to start checking craigslist for some other habitable planet on which to live. Good freakin’ luck!
Far fewer people are starving, and far more people are obese now.
Ehrlich was never right. I can grow enough food on my property to feed dozens year round with nothing but renewable organic fertilizers. Population growth, even in third world countries, has slowed drastically and some populations are shrinking.
“The fertility rate in the developed world has fallen from 3.3 in 1950 to 1.6 per couple today. These low fertility rates presage declining populations. If Japan’s catastrophically low birthrate is not raised at some point, in 500 years there will be only about 15 Japanese left on the planet. The average number of births to women in poor countries has dropped from 5 to 3 in just the past 50 years.
We used to worry about our capacity to feed the planet, but in the United States these days, we have to pay farmers to stop growing so much food. The dean of agricultural economists, D. Gale Johnson of the University of Chicago, has documented “a dramatic decline in famines” in the last 50 years. Fewer than half as many people die of famine each year now than did a century ago – despite almost a quadrupling of the population.”
http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/defusing-population-bomb
Let’s bury Malthus once and for all.
The Reverend Thomas Robert Malthus was born the 13th of February 1766 and died the 23rd of December 1834. His essay on population growth was written in 1798.
The Malthus never had a chance to see the exponential growth of technology. The reality of that exponential growth hit me over the head while talking to an old lady in Washington DC. in the mid 1970s. She had been born in the 1880s and watched the USA go from the horse and buggy era to man’s landing on the moon. INCREDIBLE!
The Wright Brothers – First Flight, 1903.
The first automobile patent in the United States was granted to Oliver Evans in 1789 and Henry Ford gave us the mass produced Model T in 1908
The Soviet Union launched Sputnik, the first satellite ever, on October 4, 1957.
That is the type of advance we humans are capable of in a mans life time, in a HALF DECADE, if allowed freedom.
And fools like Ehrlich and Holdren are wetting their pants over some possibility laid out by a guy in 1798 and want the world to STOP to RETREAT back to the same 1700’s. Worse we have fools in prominent places pushing this crap because they know a poor ignorant starving populus is easier for them to dominate and control. Their vision for the world is North Korea.
gator69: They were cutting up piglets and ploughing perfectly good crops under the soil during the Great Depression, in the hope of keeping food prices high. No one learned a thing in the last 100 years.
Actually you are missing a bit of the history.
The Depression began after the stock market crash in October 1929
The Dust bowl was from 1934 to 1937. “Recurrent dust storms wreaked havoc, choking cattle and pasture lands and driving 60 percent of the population from the region. “
There was also some finagling going on with the Federal Reserve to recoop the money spent in high wages to workers and farmers during WWI
I think you get the picture. The farmers were frantic to pay their mortgages and the Banksters were making very sure they were bankrupted. This scenario has been played out a couple more times to shift Independent Americans Farmers off the land into the cities where they are dependent on the corporations for jobs or the government for benefits. The last shift is happening now with the Food Safety Modernization Act and the redefining of ‘Farmland’ so small farmers will now pay property taxes at the rate for house lots while at the same time having to deal with the costs of ‘improvements’ required by FDA/USDA inspectors not to mention fines.
We can always get phosphate from the bones of the people who starved to death.
Bone meal, a great source of phosphorus as is the bodies of the dead….
Limestones and mudstones (sedimentary rock) are common phosphate bearing rocks.
For some reason the Catastrophists seem to think that just because we use a metal or whatever it is completely destroyed and annihilated. With nuclear power we can not only desalinate water we can also recapture a heck of a lot of useful chemicals. For example, sea water contains about 0.1-2 mg/tonne of gold dissolved in water (average 1 mg/tonne). That is just looking at what is dissolved and not the mining of the sea beds.
There is also the possibility of capturing minerals as they are washed into the sea. After all that is what panning for gold is. The key of course is a cheap source of energy and the inventive mind of man.
You would think that the phosphate on Earth tomorrow is going to be fairly similar to the phosphate on Earth yesterday. I mean, where else is it going?
“A simple calculation of PR reserve longevity using current reserve and production figures indicates that the world has over 300 years of reserves and over 1400 years of resources. Thus the world will not soon face a PR crisis. It should again be emphasized that estimates for PR reserves are subject to change with updated information and discovery, and with changes in economics and technology.”
http://www.ifdc.org/world-reserves-of-phosphate-rock-a-dynamic-and-unf/
…just like peak oil
David, on another note…..increased CO2 allows plants to utilize P much more effectively and a lot less P is required….
or another way of putting that
Because CO2 levels have been limiting, we have had to add huge quantities of P in order to make any available to plants….
We will just have to use a lot less fertilizer as CO2 increases
David,
None of us support unlimited population growth. What we do support is the fact that the move advanced the civilization the fewer people have a lot of children. It just plain costs to much to raise a kid to 21 and educate him. In a subsistence culture children are seen as cheap labor, they often die before the age of five and they can be sold. (The underground slave markets are thriving.)
Therefore the intelligent position is not to stifle technology development and to ‘de-develop the USA’ but to spread advanced civilization and hopefully get of this rock some time in the future. (So I am a dyed in the wool Science Fiction addict.)
THIS is the statement we are protesting.
“A massive campaign must be launched to restore a high-quality environment in North America and to de-develop the United States,” – Holdren
It is a completely wrong headed approach to the problem. For one thing you only get a high-quality environment WITH advanced technology because people can worry and divert energy to things besides survival.
I suggest you read “The Great Horse-Manure Crisis of 1894”
NOTE: The only reason the population in the EU and the USA is growing is because of all the first generation immigrants from third world countries having lots of kids. even so the latest CIA report says the Total fertility rate (TFR) for a woman is:
United States 2.01
United Kingdom 1.90
Sweden 1.88
Iceland 1.88
Australia 1.77
Canada 1.59
Austria 1.43
Germany 1.43
Free trade has already deindustrialized much of the US. I remember the Pittsburgh steel mills. Used to watch them dump slag at night in winter. Awesome sight. Now, it is all dark and quiet.
That was the whole idea behind ‘Free Trade’ and the World Trade Organization. Too bad the Unions didn’t realize Presidential Candidate Bill Clinton was planning on selling their jobs to China in return for the bribe he received from the Chinese.
TIMELINE: How China Conquered America
Difficult to feel sorry for those unions, they had their good times. The Chinese have done well by working hard.
Tel,
The only problem I have is Yankee technology was given to the Chinese and the Chinese will use it to cut out throats down the road. You do not give your gun to someone who really really hates your guts and leave yourself disarmed. That is what Clinton did to us.
I have great admiration for the Chinese people and wish them well, it is their government I am afraid of.
This is the history: http://m.gulfnews.com/lessons-of-history-china-s-century-of-humiliation-1.884742
This is what the new leader of China did: http://americanthinker.com/2014/04/china_picks_at_the_scab_to_keep_the_wound_fresh.html
This is the warning from Chinese who should know: http://www.theepochtimes.com/news/5-9-11/32195.html
If that doesn’t at least make you sit up and think then you must be looking forward to a possible nuclear war.
Remember that excluding nuclear reactions and fossil fuels, the material we use isn’t actually going anywhere. It’s still here even after we have discarded it – piled in garbage dumps. And what we need now is not necessarily what we need tomorrow.
Delingpole’s book “Watermelons” had a pretty good comparison. It is likely that a stone age man said to another at one point: “The future looks bleak. Mammoths are becoming increasingly rare and all our caves are already crammed full of people.”
If we run out of phosphate rock, we’ll start to utilize phosphate found from somewhere else (like lake sediments). It’ll be somewhat more expensive, but not much. That’s the great thing in free market societies. If something becomes rare, it becomes more expensive and therefore it becomes profitable enough to mine those deposits that are yet not profitable enough.
In practice this means we’ll never run out of anything. Everything only gets more and more expensive while advances in technology tend to compensate this by making everything cheaper and cheaper.
Recently it has been discovered that even the mascot of the “we’ll run out of everything” -movement – the population of the Easter Island – did not destroy their environment and cause the destruction of their culture, like so many greens want us to believe. The whole story was a fairytale – a kind of wishful thinking. Archeologists have now found that:
1) The island was habited much later than previously estimated. Not in the 400’s, but between the years the 1200 – 1600.
2) The population was never larger than it was when the island was found by westerners.
3) The trees were not lost because the people over-harvested them, but because rats ate all the seeds.
4) Losing the trees was not a big deal for the population. They were fit and healthy when they were found.
5) The collapse that came later was caused by smallpox and STD’s that came with the first europeans that found them. Later many were taken as slaves.
So if a low-tech population can prosper in a tiny isolated treeless island with extremely limited resources and ravaged by rats, what do we have to worry about?
“Consider, for example, what will happen when we run out of phosphate rock reserves, which will happen well before the end of this century. “
Yawn. Here we go again…
So, “Peak Phosphate” is what you Moonbats have dreamed up to replace “Peak Oil” is it?
You were wrong about the oil, and you’re going to be wrong about that too.
Of course, if you really believe this BS, you know what you must do for the benefit of humanity, right?
Sorry, Ehrlich was right only in the mathematical sense that an exponential growth rate produces some pretty big numbers eventually. Population graphed out like an exponential curve for a period of time, but it does not any more. All of the industrialized nations have transitioned to a birth rate of replacement or lower. Russia, Japan, and most of Europe are significantly below replacement, and the US is hovering close to replacement fertility, thanks to immigration. Russia and Japan are worried about population collapse. There has been a slowdown even in countries with traditionally high birth rates where a typical woman, who would have borne eight children in 1930 will most likely bear three or four today.
Google “birth dearth” or “demographic transition” to explore further.
This comes under the law of Survival of the Fittest. All life is subject to natures law. If a species cannot compete, it will become extinct, humanity included. Some people like to think they know better, and clamor for human population reduction now to avoid population reduction by natural means. Climate, and other doom sayers, crawl back in your totalitarian caves and shut up.
Ehrlich and his buddy Holdren are either nuts or sadists. Either way they do not deserve to be called scientists.
Heck Ehrlich is an entomologist specializing in Lepidoptera (butterflies) and Holdren, Obama’s Science Czar, is trained in aeronautics, astronautics and plasma physics.
Neither is trained in statistics or population science or even politics. If ‘denier’ scientists can not say anything about CAGW because it is not their “field” how do these buffoons get off writing whole books on population and the best political form of government? Books that are then used in universities as textbooks!
It is truly mind boggling when you actually think about it.
Anyone else ever notice that the loons always believe in “exponential” in either direction?…..
Especially exponential support (mostly monetary) of the cause du jour…
I think you both hit the jackpot on that.
It’s always a linear trendline……..if this trend continues
No…unfortunately I was off by 1 on every number on the ticket.
Reblogged this on Centinel2012 and commented:
This is why we have UN Agenda 21 which used CO2 as the lever to get what they want which is De-population as my Gates calls it!