Arctic Sea Ice Extent Continues At Highest Level In Over 10 Years

Posted on December 22, 2014 by Tony Heller

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Ocean and Ice Services | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut

Leading government experts say that the Arctic has been ice-free for over a year

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BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013’

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15 Responses to Arctic Sea Ice Extent Continues At Highest Level In Over 10 Years

  1. Gail Combs says:
    December 22, 2014 at 4:13 pm

    The Joe Romm update June 6, 2010:

    Arctic death spiral: Naval Postgrad School’s Maslowski “projects ice-free* fall by 2016 (+/- 3 yrs)”

    But in the land of make-believe, Watts and Goddard say: “Arctic ice extent and thickness nearly identical to what it was 10 years ago.”

    One of the country’s leading experts on the Arctic projects it will be essentially ice-free (in the fall) decades ahead of the projections of the climate models used in the 2007 IPCC report. And that has quite dire implications and consequences for the likely future rate of climate change compared to those models.

    The following chart is from Wieslaw Maslowski of the Naval Postgraduate School in a presentation at the March State of the Arctic Meeting

    [Cart is now among the missing – Al Gore ate it for lunch]

    *This projection is based on a combined model and data trendline focusing on ice volume. By “ice-free,” Maslowski tells me he means more than an 80% drop from the 1979-2000 summer volume baseline of ~200,00 km^3. Some sea ice above Greenland and Eastern Canada may survive into the 2020s (as the inset in his figure shows), but the Arctic as it has been for apparently a million years will be gone.

    Note also that the Polar Science Center asserts “September Ice Volume was lowest in 2009 at 5,800 km^3 or 67% below its 1979 maximum.” If that figure is correct, then we may be on one of Maslowski’s faster-declining trend lines. And yes, after apparently hundreds of thousands of years, this relatively rapid decline can, I think, safely be called a “death spiral” (especially if the Polar Science Center’s work discussed below is correct).

    Of interest is the fact that the ‘Arctic Death Spiral’ graph that Romm linked to now gives:
    POLAR SCIENCE CENTER
    NOT FOUND
    Sorry, but you are looking for something that isn’t here….
    (Snicker)

    QUICK QUICK do a screen capture before Romm makes the whole article vanish.

    Reply
    • davidswuk says:
      December 22, 2014 at 4:33 pm

      But he`s still got 5 years well paid praying time left…..

      Reply
    • Gail Combs says:
      December 22, 2014 at 4:58 pm

      O/T but of interest:
      Vietnam draft exemptions and deferments have now come back to bite us.

      1. Deferments, for college students made a masters and a long drawn out Phd very attractive.
      2. The dumber anti-war types went for education majors and ended up in teaching. As I recall being a lawyer and being a teacher were draft exemption occupations among others.

      I KNOW teaching was a deferred occupation because that is how my husband missed Vietnam. He mentioned once that the large number of not particularly bright lawyers graduating in the late 1960, early 1970s was also thanks to the Vietnam draft exemptions. And those people then became our ~50% D.C. politicians and lobbyists with law degrees.

      Reply
    • stevengoddard says:
      December 22, 2014 at 5:43 pm

      Thanks Gail,

      I have a copy of Maslowski’s original article before he disappeared it.

      Reply
    • nielszoo says:
      December 22, 2014 at 9:16 pm

      As usual, their “death spiral” prognostication was based on how the “observations” of sea ice extent compare to some model/data synthesis of sea ice volume and extent and some voodoo whereby all of the ice is thinner, evil ice. It’s almost 2015 and that 2010 Romm article exactly like what they’re saying today. I also have to wonder how many different definitions of “ice free” they’re going come up with. I guess if your mortgage payment is based on “normal sea ice extent” being “catastrophically ice free” then a year of 4 million km² minimum with significant 3 to 5 year ice has to be advertised as being on the brink of Arctic melting disaster.

      Reply
  2. 2hotel9 says:
    December 22, 2014 at 4:29 pm

    Oh. My. Gawd. We are all going to die in a fiery flood!!!!!!!

    Reply
  3. Billy Liar says:
    December 22, 2014 at 6:10 pm

    In the end, Professor Peter Wadhams will just melt away quite suddenly.

    Reply
  4. slimething says:
    December 23, 2014 at 3:54 am

    Has someone checked on Neven lately? He may need a sedative.

    Reply
  5. ntesdorf says:
    December 24, 2014 at 2:57 am

    “in the end it will all just melt away quite suddenly”. Which end would that be? It does not seem to be in sight at present! Perhaps he was referring to his models, or his predictions as recorded on the internet. Perhaps he was referring to public interest in the whole Climate Circus.

    Reply

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