The Polar Vortex Scam About To Die

Posted on December 27, 2014 by Tony Heller

A couple of years ago Jennifer Francis started the “polar vortex caused by missing Arctic ice” scam, and this year White House science czar John Holdren took the lead on that particular scam.

The US and Europe are about to get slammed with major blasts of cold, and there isn’t any missing Arctic ice. Yet another climate scam dies a rapid death.

N_daily_extent (4)N_daily_extent.png (420×500)

As long as academics are paid to make up fake climate theories, they will continue to crank out more of them.

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52 Responses to The Polar Vortex Scam About To Die

  1. gator69 says:
    December 27, 2014 at 8:09 am

    “Francis’s research focuses on climate change in the Arctic, and has published over 40 scientific papers on the topic.[1] It is also her opinion that warming in the Arctic may be changing the jet stream, which, in turn, may be leading to abnormal weather patterns such as an unusually long winter in the United Kingdom,[2][3] the 2013 Colorado floods,[4] and the unusually cold conditions across much of the southern United States in early 2014.[5][6] Specifically, Francis argues that the heating and cooling of Arctic seawater (the Arctic is warming much faster than the rest of the world) has slowed down the jet stream, resulting in weather conditions persisting for longer than they usually would.[7][8] That the warming in the Arctic is linked to extreme weather elsewhere in the world is a view supported by some of Francis’s research, such as a study published in Geophysical Research Letters in 2012.”

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jennifer_Francis

    According to her bio, she has been nothing but a leach on society’s buttocks, afflicted with terminal academia.

    Reply
    • Colorado Wellington says:
      December 27, 2014 at 8:31 am

      Maybe, but she’s been very efficient at it:

      The benefits of being stupid at work

      by Megan Hustad
      April 17, 2013, 3:57 PM EST

      Why employees who aren’t the sharpest knives in the drawer — at least not that anyone can tell — might do best of all.

      Would you rather be thoughtless and successful or intelligent and frustrated?

      A recent article in the New Scientist addressed the never-ending ignorance-as-bliss debate with the following question: If being intelligent was an evolutionary advantage, “why aren’t we all uniformly intelligent?” The obvious, unscientific answer: Probably for the same reasons we aren’t uniformly good-looking. But is being smart always to your benefit? Are there instances when stupid works better?

      Stupidity can increase efficiency, claims Mats Alvesson, professor of organization studies at Lund University in Sweden. In a Journal of Management Studies article titled “A Stupidity-Based Theory of Organisations” Alvesson and colleague André Spicer explain how what they call “functional stupidity” generally helped get things done.
      …

      http://fortune.com/2013/04/17/the-benefits-of-being-stupid-at-work

      Functionally stupid and getting things done.

      Reply
    • Gail Combs says:
      December 27, 2014 at 10:37 am

      It is known as being a ‘Team Player’ no one, especially the incompetent boss, likes a subordinate that is smarter than he.

      COROLLARY OF THE PETER PRINCIPLE.
      The incompetent will always hire those dumber than they so they can shine.

      Reply
      • gator69 says:
        December 27, 2014 at 10:59 am

        “Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it.”
        ? Laurence J. Peter, The Peter Principle

        Reply
      • darrylb says:
        December 27, 2014 at 3:22 pm

        Surprisingly, Kevin Trenberth disagreed with the idea of less Arctic sea ice as a cause of polar vortex’ from when the concept first originated. .

        Reply
  2. ren says:
    December 27, 2014 at 8:40 am

    Winter polar vortex is formed in the stratosphere. Wind energy is produced by the temperature difference in the zone of of the ozone. The atmosphere there is very rare, and the temperature means higher the energy of air molecules. Temperature has to grow, when the ozone is formed, which releases heat. The temperature in the ozone zone of grows only under the influence of solar radiation and temperature of the tropopause is substantially constant (about -55 degrees C).
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_MEAN_ALL_NH_2013.gif

    Reply
    • Morgan Wright says:
      December 27, 2014 at 12:40 pm

      Bullshit. You just said the air is very rare up there. (It’s 1 millibar up there, or 1/1000 of sea level pressure). That means it contains almost no heat. Even if it’s very hot in temperature, the heat is milliwatts/m2

      Wind energy is not “produced by temperature difference” Wind is produced by pressure difference. What kind of wind does 1 millibar air make?

      Wind at the poles is not produced in the stratosphere. Wind at the poles is produced by the rotation of the Earth.

      Everything you just said is bullshit.

      Reply
      • Gail Combs says:
        December 27, 2014 at 2:38 pm

        Actually it is the ozone formed/destroyed in the stratosphere that is the connection as far as I can tell.

        Let me see if I can trace the different steps via various papers. No one has put it together in one paper because it would kill or at least challenge CAGW. I was thinking I should organize my notes and lay it out anyway.

        First NASA has finally admitted that the sun is not constant and although the Total Solar Insolation is relatively constant the distribution of the energy among wavelengths is not. This is the critical point.

        In recent years, SIM has collected data that suggest the sun’s brightness may vary in entirely unexpected ways. If the SIM’s spectral irradiance measurements are validated and proven accurate over time, then certain parts of Earth’s atmosphere may receive surprisingly large doses of solar radiation even during lulls in solar activity.

        “We have never had a reason until now to believe that parts of the spectrum may vary out of phase with the solar cycle, but now we have started to model that possibility because of the SIM results,” …
        “Between 2004 and 2007, the Solar Irradiance Monitor (blue line) measured a decrease in ultraviolet radiation (less than 400 nanometers) that was a factor of four to six larger than expected.” (wwwDOT)nasa.gov/topics/solarsystem/features/solarcycle-sorce.html

        2007 was before the deep solar minimum.
        “…A 12-year low in solar “irradiance”: Careful measurements by several NASA spacecraft show that the sun’s brightness has dropped by 0.02% at visible wavelengths and 6% at extreme UV wavelengths since the solar minimum of 1996….” science(DOT)nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2009/01apr_deepsolarminimum/

        NASA has also admitted different wavelengths of sunlight do different things in different parts of the atmosphere.
        Solar Spectral Irradiance Data

        Research and Applications
        Because of selective absorption and scattering processes in the Earth’s atmosphere, different regions of the solar spectrum affect Earth’s climate in distinct ways. Approximately 20-25% of the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) is absorbed by atmospheric water vapor, clouds, and ozone, by processes that are strongly wavelength dependent. Ultraviolet radiation at wavelengths below 300 nm is completely absorbed by the Earth’s atmosphere and contributes the dominant energy source in the stratosphere and thermosphere, establishing the upper atmosphere’s temperature, structure, composition, and dynamics. Even small variations in the Sun’s radiation at these short wavelengths will lead to corresponding changes in atmospheric chemistry. Radiation at the longer visible and infrared wavelengths penetrates into the lower atmosphere, where the portion not reflected is partitioned between the troposphere and the Earth’s surface, and becomes a dominant term in the global energy balance and an essential determinant of atmospheric stability and convection.
        lasp(dot)colorado.edu/home/sorce/data/ssi-data/

        CHARACTERISTICS OF THE GENERAL CIRCULATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION OF TOTAL OZONE AS DETERMINED BY THE NIMBUS III SATELLITE INFRARED INTERFEROMETER SPECTROMETER

        Ozone is an important atmospheric trace constituent. The depletion of solar radiation between approximately 2000 and 3000 A is the result of strong absorption by ozone in the ultraviolet wave-lengths. The energy absorbed in this process is the prime source of thermal energy in the stratosphere. Because of this, ozone plays an important role in the large-scale motions of the atmosphere….

        ….A strong correlation was found between the meridional gradient of total ozone and the wind velocity in jet stream systems…..

        ….A study of the total ozone distribution over two tropical storms indicated that each disturbance was associated with a distinct ozone minimum….

        A comparison of time-longitude stratospheric radiance values at 60 S with values of the total ozone indicated that low (high) radiance values corresponded very closely with the low (high) ozone variations. The speed at which these ozone ‘waves’ progress eastward is greater
        in the winter hemisphere. The speed of eastward progression decreases as one approaches the lower latitudes in the winter hemisphere. In the equatorial region and in the Northern Hemisphere summer there is not a strong eastward progression of the ozone ‘waves’ but a westward progression….

        Changes in Ozone and Stratospheric Temperature graph

        The graph above shows total ozone and stratospheric temperatures over the Arctic since 1979. Changes in ozone amounts are closely linked to temperature, with colder temperatures resulting in more polar stratospheric clouds and lower ozone levels. Atmospheric motions drive the year-to-year temperature changes. The Arctic stratosphere cooled slightly since 1979, but scientists are currently unsure of the cause….
        (wwwDOT)giss.nasa.gov/research/features/200402_tango/

        Top-Down Solar Modulation of Climate: evidence for centennial-scale change

        The work presented here is consistent with the interpretation of a recently reported effect [25] of solar variability on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and European winter temperatures over the interval 1659–2010 in terms of top-down modulation of the blocking phenomenon [52, 53]. In fact, Woollings et al [26] show that the solar response pattern is, despite being similar in form to that of the NAO, signi?cantly different in that it reaches further east. These authors also show that open solar ?ux has a much stronger control over blocking events in this sector than the previously reported effect of F10.7 [55]. There is seasonality in the solar responses reported here. This is expected as modulation of upwards-propagating planetary waves in wintertime, and the associated stratosphere– troposphere interaction, is most widely believed to be the key mechanism [8, 11]. In addition, the tropospheric signature is a response of the eddy-driven jet streams, and these are at their strongest and most responsive in winter. While the results are presented here as annual means, the regression analysis was actually carried out on monthly mean data and thus takes this seasonality into account. The seasonal evolution of the F10.7 cm ?ux regression was described in detail by Frame and Gray [53] and this was not signi?cantly affected by using either the open solar ?ux FS nor the cosmic ray ?ux, M, instead of F10.7.”
        http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/5/3/034008/pdf/1748-9326_5_3_034008.pdf

        Reply
      • Gail Combs says:
        December 27, 2014 at 2:41 pm

        Then we get into the effect on the poles.

        Quasi-biennial oscillation and solar cycle influences on winter Arctic total ozone

        Abstract

        The total column ozone (TCO) observed from satellites and assimilated in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts since 1979 is used as an atmospheric tracer to study the modulations of the winter Arctic stratosphere by the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and the solar cycle. It is found that both the QBO and solar forcings in low latitudes can perturb the late winter polar vortex, likely via planetary wave divergence, causing an early breakdown of the vortex in the form of sudden stratospheric warming. As a result, TCO within the vortex in late winter can increase by ~60 Dobson unit during either a solar maximum or an easterly phase of the QBO, or both, relative to the least perturbed state when the solar cycle is minimum and the QBO is in the westerly phase. In addition, from the solar maximum to the solar minimum during the QBO easterly phase, the change in TCO is found to be statistically insignificant. Therefore, the “reversal” of the Holton–Tan effect, reported in some previous studies using lower stratospheric temperature, is not evident in the TCO behavior of both observation and assimilation.
        onlinelibrary(DOT)wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013JD021065/abstract

        The influence of solar variability and the quasi-biennial oscillation
        on lower atmospheric temperatures and sea level pressure

        Abstract.
        We investigate an apparent inconsistency between two published results concerning the temperature of the winter polar stratosphere and its dependence on the state of the Sun and the phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). We find that the differences can be explained by the use of the authors of different pressure levels to define the phase of the QBO.

        We identify QBO and solar cycle signals in sea level pressure (SLP) data using a multiple linear regression approach. First we used a standard QBO time series dating back to 1953. In the SLP observations dating back to that time we find at high latitudes that individually the solar and QBO signals are weak but that a temporal index representing the combined effects of the Sun and the QBO shows a significant signal. This is such that combinations of low solar activity with westerly QBO and high solar activity with easterly QBO are both associated with a strengthening in the polar modes; while the opposite combinations coincide with a weakening. This result is true irrespective of the choice of QBO pressure level. By employing a QBO dataset reconstructed back to 1900, we extended the analysis and also find a robust signal in the surface SAM; though weaker for surface NAM.

        Our results suggest that solar variability, modulated by the phase of QBO, influences zonal mean temperatures at high latitudes in the lower stratosphere and subsequently affect sea level pressure near the poles. Thus a knowledge of the state of the Sun, and the phase of the QBO might be useful in surface climate prediction.
        (wwwDOT)atmos-chem-phys.net/11/11679/2011/acp-11-11679-2011.pdf

        Climate System Response to Stratospheric Ozone Depletion and Recovery

        Compared to well-mixed greenhouse gases (GHGs), the radiative forcing of climate due to observed stratospheric ozone loss is very small: in spite of this, recent trends in stratospheric ozone have caused profound changes in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) climate system, primarily by altering the tropospheric midlatitude jet, which is commonly described as a change in the Southern Annular Mode. Ozone depletion in the late twentieth century was the primary driver of the observed poleward shift of the jet during summer, which has been linked to changes in tropospheric and surface temperatures, clouds and cloud radiative effects, and precipitation at both middle and low latitudes. It is emphasized, however, that not all aspects of the SH climate response to stratospheric ozone forcing can be understood in terms of changes in the midlatitude jet. The response of the Southern Ocean and sea ice to ozone depletion is currently a matter of debate. ….
        (wwwDOT)columbia.edu/~lmp/paps/previdi+polvani-QJRMS-2014-inpress.pdf

        The Antarctic ozone hole: An update

        …The ozone hole also affects the Southern Hemisphere’s surface climate. As the Sun returns to Antarctica [in the spring], ozone should be present, absorbing radiation and thereby warming the polar vortex. There is less heating because of ozone depletion, Antarctic lower-stratospheric temperatures are below their pre-ozone-hole average during spring and summer, and the [cold] polar vortex persists one to two weeks longer. Because the circumpolar flow around Antarctica extends to the surface, the tropospheric jet is strengthened during the southern summer, which increases the surface wind stress and thereby modifies the ocean circulation. Increased greenhouse gas levels lead to surface warming in the Arctic and might be expected to have the same effect in the Antarctic. However, observations and models show that the ozone depletion has caused the interior of Antarctica to cool. The wind and temperature changes driven by ozone depletion also change Southern Hemisphere precipitation patterns…
        http://scitation.aip.org/content/aip/magazine/physicstoday/article/67/7/10.1063/PT.3.2449?dm_i=1Y69,2LFVV,E4CSKB,9H5SN,1

        06 May 2012 Nature Geoscience | Letter Regional atmospheric circulation shifts induced by a grand solar minimum

        ABSTRACT
        Large changes in solar ultraviolet radiation can indirectly affect climate by inducing atmospheric changes. Specifically, it has been suggested that centennial-scale climate variability during the Holocene epoch was controlled by the Sun. However, the amplitude of solar forcing is small when compared with the climatic effects and, without reliable data sets, it is unclear which feedback mechanisms could have amplified the forcing. Here we analyse annually laminated sediments of Lake Meerfelder Maar, Germany, to derive variations in wind strength and the rate of 10Be accumulation, a proxy for solar activity, from 3,300 to 2,000 years before present. We find a sharp increase in windiness and cosmogenic 10Be deposition 2,759? ±? 39 varve years before present and a reduction in both entities 199? ±? 9 annual layers later. We infer that the atmospheric circulation reacted abruptly and in phase with the solar minimum. A shift in atmospheric circulation in response to changes in solar activity is broadly consistent with atmospheric circulation patterns in long-term climate model simulations, and in reanalysis data that assimilate observations from recent solar minima into a climate model. We conclude that changes in atmospheric circulation amplified the solar signal and caused abrupt climate change about 2,800 years ago, coincident with a grand solar minimum.

        Reply
      • Gail Combs says:
        December 27, 2014 at 2:51 pm

        Then there is the Cosmic ray connection.
        Does the worsening galactic cosmic radiation environment observed by CRaTER preclude future manned deep space exploration

        Abstract
        The Sun and its solar wind are currently exhibiting extremely low densities and magnetic field strengths, representing states that have never been observed during the space age. The highly abnormal solar activity between cycles 23 and 24 has caused the longest solar minimum in over 80 years and continues into the unusually small solar maximum of cycle 24. As a result of the remarkably weak solar activity, we have also observed the highest fluxes of galactic cosmic rays in the space age and relatively small solar energetic particle events.…

        onlinelibrary(DOT)wiley.com/enhanced/doi/10.1002/2014SW001084/

        Stratospheric polar vortex as a possible reason for temporal variations of solar activity and galactic cosmic ray effects on the lower atmosphere circulation

        (wwwDOT)sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0273117713005474

        “Possible reasons for the temporal instability of long-term effects of solar activity (SA) and galactic cosmic ray (GCR) variations on the lower atmosphere circulation were studied. It was shown that the detected earlier ?60-year oscillations of the amplitude and sign of SA/GCR effects on the troposphere pressure at high and middle latitudes (Veretenenko and Ogurtsov, Adv.Space Res., 2012) are closely related to the state of a cyclonic vortex forming in the polar stratosphere. The intensity of the vortex was found to reveal a roughly 60-year periodicity affecting the evolution of the large-scale atmospheric circulation and the character of SA/GCR effects. An intensification of both Arctic anticyclones and mid-latitudinal cyclones associated with an increase of GCR fluxes at minima of the 11-year solar cycles is observed in the epochs of a strong polar vortex. In the epochs of a weak polar vortex SA/GCR effects on the development of baric systems at middle and high latitudes were found to change the sign. The results obtained provide evidence that the mechanism of solar activity and cosmic ray influences on the lower atmosphere circulation involves changes in the evolution of the stratospheric polar vortex.”

        Before the start of Solar Cycle 24 you can see the effect of the Grand Solar Maximun on the Antarctic.

        Decadal Scale Temperature Trends in the Southern Hemisphere Ocean Journal of Climate, 2008.

        ABSTRACT
        Long-term trends in the heat content of the Southern Hemisphere ocean are evaluated by comparing temperature profiles collected during the 1990s with profiles collected starting in the 1930s. Data are drawn both from ship-based hydrographic surveys and from autonomous floats. Results show that the upper 1000 m of the Southern Hemisphere ocean has warmed substantially during this time period at all depths. Warming is concentrated within the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). On a global scale, this warming trend implies that the ocean has gained heat from the atmosphere over the last 50 to 70 years. Although the data do not preclude the possibility that the Southern Ocean has warmed as a result of increased heat fluxes, either into the ocean or within the ocean, in general the strong trend in the Southern Ocean appears regionally consistent with a poleward migration of the ACC, possibly driven by long-term poleward shifts in the winds of the region, as represented by the southern annular mode.

        (www)-pord.ucsd.edu/~sgille/pub_dir/i1520-0442-21-18-4749.pdf“ entitled

        Reply
      • Gail Combs says:
        December 27, 2014 at 2:53 pm

        And for the Amusement value.
        A short summary from NERC dated 2007 says the following:

        Stronger westerly winds around Antarctica are increasing eddy activity in the Southern Ocean and consequently may be driving more heat southward across the formidable Antarctic Circumpolar Current – the world’s largest current (see map below).

        Winds over the Southern Ocean are strengthening due, at least in part, to human-induced change such as ozone depletion and greenhouse gas emissions. Scientists, examining satellite measurements of the ocean surface and using high-resolution computer models, have found that the Antarctic Circumpolar Current only shows a slight acceleration when these winds blow stronger, but that there is a large increase in ocean eddy activity. Eddies are the ocean equivalent of atmospheric weather systems, and in the Southern Ocean they play a key role in moving heat southward toward the Antarctic continent.

        (wwwDOT)nerc.ac.uk/research/highlights/2007/antarcticwarming.asp

        NERC had their rumps nailed to the wall by E.M. Smith HERE and quickly deleted the page.

        …Try to spin it as all AGW induced catastrophic warming of the Antarctic Peninsula. To me, it looks like they’ve got the right data, but the wrong “spin”. They can’t see the reality in front of their face. A warm Antarctic Peninsula may just be the barometer that gives an early reading of a cooling Pacific ocean. They’ve got all the data, even a nice map showing the water move. Just can’t get their Political Officer Blinders taken off long enough to see it. Oh, and they have the wind going in the wrong direction. Like all things AGW, they’ve got things “exactly backwards”. (If they catch and fix the error, I’ve saved a copy…. tee hee 😉 Someone needs to tell them that “westerly winds” means the wind comes FROM the west…

        Reply
      • Morgan Wright says:
        December 27, 2014 at 3:46 pm

        You are still looking at the stratosphere as a source of wind in the troposphere/surface. Let’s let the cat out of the bag now:

        1. speed of earth’s rotation at the pole = 0
        2. speed of earth’s rotation 1000 miles from the pole = 6283 miles / 24 hours = 262 MPH

        OK?

        Reply
    • Morgan Wright says:
      December 27, 2014 at 4:28 pm

      The wind in the stratosphere comes from the rotation of the earth. Air in the stratosphere moves north from lower latitudes, where it rotates with the earth, at roughly the same speed as earth for a while (earth’s rotational speed drops quickly to 0 at the poles but is still 261 MPH only 1000 miles from the pole). As the air in the stratosphere approaches the pole, it’s moving much faster than the earth in an easterly direction (from the west so the winds are actually westerly winds) from the momentum the air got by rotating with the earth at lower latitudes. Now, the fast-moving air gets to the pole, it has all this kinetic energy which does NOT come from heat, ozone, sunlight, etc. as you say. It’s just momentum.

      Now the stratospheric air cools and sinks at the pole. but the air is only 1 millibar so when it gets into the troposphere where the air is much thicker, the drag slows it down to almost 0. There is virtually no wind at the pole near the surface. The 1000 millibar air stops it.

      Now the air moves southward again, where it picks up “wind” from the rotation of the earth, but in the opposite direction. Now, the wind comes from calm air moving across a rotating earth. Therefore, the winds are easterlies (moving to the west) because the earth rotates to the east. These are called polar easterlies and are NOT the polar vortex. The polar vortex is westerlies in the stratosphere (the jet stream is a westerly in the stratosphere). But these are easterlies near the surface.

      Polar vortex is the wrong term for cold air coming down from the pole in the troposphere. The correct term is “cold air mass”. They use “polar votex” because they are liars.

      Reply
    • nielszoo says:
      December 27, 2014 at 4:34 pm

      The formation of ozone in the upper atmosphere does not “create” heat. If anything, it keeps it a bit cooler down here. High energy solar photons ADD energy by striking O2 or O3 molecules and splitting them. They recombine and in doing so dump that energy at a lower level minus the original work of splitting and moving that atomic oxygen around. Molecular oxygen and ozone act more as energy transducers buffering high UV energies by moving atomic oxygen around from molecule to molecule… whatever heat is generated at the lower wavelengths, more than half radiates back to space between 9µm and 10µm. The exception would be the Auroras at the poles where, well above ~100km, oxygen radiates visible light in the red and green part of the spectrum because of the extremely high energy it gets bumped to by solar wind that gets through the flux lines of the magnetosphere. (the blue and violet is N2.)

      At those near vacuum pressures there is so little mechanical energy that I can’t imagine it has any effect at all on the far more massive lower atmosphere.

      Reply
  3. ren says:
    December 27, 2014 at 8:48 am

    Anomalies in the temperature in the stratosphere in the winter resulting to changes in solar activity (galactic radiation, UV radiation can not reach during the polar night).
    In the graphic temperature distribution at about 35 km.
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t05_nh_f00.gif

    Reply
  4. ren says:
    December 27, 2014 at 8:57 am

    The decrease in solar activity produces waves in the stratosphere (associated with an increase in temperature), which causes an increase in pressure over the Arctic Circle.
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_WAVE1_MEAN_ALL_NH_2014.gif

    Reply
  7. ren says:
    December 27, 2014 at 9:29 am

    “A team of British and American scientists has discovered a new method to detect major weather events occurring 32 km up in the Earth’s stratosphere. Cosmic rays, detected 0.8 km beneath the planet’s surface in an obsolete iron mine, have the potential to identify weather event…
    Scientists discover underground cosmic rays can detect major weather events
    A team of British and American scientists has discovered a new method to detect major weather events occurring 32 km up in the Earth’s stratosphere. Cosmic rays, detected 0.8 km beneath the planet’s surface in an obsolete iron mine, have the potential to identify weather events that happen during the Northern Hemisphere winter.

    Scientists from the UK’s National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) and the Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC) teamed up with colleagues from the US project MINOS to evaluate cosmic-ray data detected in a disused iron mine in the midwest state of Minnesota. The aim of the MINOS project is to investigate the properties of neutrinos (particles with zero charge and zero mass) and measure muons originating high up in the atmosphere as background noise in the detector.

    The four-year data showed that a number of high-energy cosmic rays (the energy charged particles from outer space that strike the Earth from every direction) reach a detector deep underground and match temperature measurements in the stratosphere (also known as the upper atmosphere), the researchers said.

    ‘It’s fun sitting half a mile underground doing particle physics,’ remarked the University of Oxford’s Dr Giles Barr, co-author of the study. ‘It’s even better to know that from down there, we can also monitor a part of the atmosphere that is otherwise quite tricky to measure.’

    According to the scientists, their findings provide insight into how cosmic rays can be used to identify weather events that may have a significant effect on the severity of winters that people experience. It should also be noted that the weather events may also influence the amount of ozone over the poles.

    Existing climate and weather-forecasting models used to improve weather forecasts would benefit considerably from new techniques to identify weather events and understand their frequency.

    ‘Up until now we have relied on weather balloons and satellite data to provide information about these major weather events,’ explained Dr Scott Osprey, lead scientist for the NCAS. ‘Now we can potentially use records of cosmic ray data dating back to 50 years to give us a pretty accurate idea of what was happening to the temperature in the stratosphere over this time. Looking forward, data being collected by other large underground detectors around the world can also be used to study this phenomenon.’

    The scientists said the cosmic rays (also known as muons) are generated following the decay of other cosmic rays (known as mesons). Researchers recognise that when the atmosphere’s temperature rises, it expands, leading to the destruction of fewer mesons on air impact. This leaves more mesons to decay naturally to muons, and so the number of muons detected increases.”
    http://cordis.europa.eu/news/rcn/30377_en.html

    Reply
  8. markstoval says:
    December 27, 2014 at 10:11 am

    “The Polar Vortex Scam About To Die”

    I disagree. Oh, you are right that mother nature has proven this latest wild assed story to be a load of crap — but that is in the real world. In the world of politics, the “polar vortex scam” will live on as it is useful. The idea is to associate “polar vortex” with bad winter weather and CO2.

    This whole CO2 scam is the real nightmare. It is human lunacy writ large.

    Reply
  9. rah says:
    December 27, 2014 at 12:35 pm

    I have always wondered how I went 57 years with multiple trips up into the Arctic Circle without hearing about “The Polar Vortex” in all that time. It not like I didn’t pay attention to the weather reports.

    Reply
  10. philjourdan says:
    December 27, 2014 at 1:46 pm

    There was no missing ice when Holdren created the scam. Facts are irrelevant to scam artists.

    Reply
  11. Kyle K says:
    December 27, 2014 at 4:52 pm

    How can the scam die if the media still tells the lies?

    Reply
  12. NancyG says:
    December 27, 2014 at 6:45 pm

    I just read a one page article in a Long Island newspaper, Newsday, which recapped the weather of 2014 here. Titled Mild & Wild the highlights were “Frigid, snowy winter…historic summer deluge…and it never hit 90 degrees.”

    It was nice to see no global warming mentioned, one paragraph was about the polar vortex:

    “It was also the year that news outlets discovered – and in some cases hyped – the term “polar vortex,” which is a staple of meteorologists’ vocabulary, referring to the orientation of the jet stream. When the jet stream dips south, polar air comes along with it, he said. “It took us a little by surprise” that the term “became such a thing,” Stark said.” (David Stark)

    Of interest:

    January saw 16 new daily records, mostly for snowfall, low temperatures and lowest maximum temperatures, as well as one for a daily high. The airport saw a temp plunge from 55 degrees on the morning of Jan. 6th to 7 degrees 24 hours later.

    January snowfall was 25.2 inches, the norm is 6.7
    February snowfall was 24.5 inches, the norm is 7.1

    February saw 6 snowfalls between the 3rd and the 18th.

    8/13/14 – 5.34 inches of rain fell between 5 and 6 a.m. With another 4.37 inches the following hour, making it a 500 year event.

    The summer had the second longest run of no 90 degree (or higher) days in the past 30 years. We haven’t had a 90 degree day since July 20, 2013. The record 90 degree free period was July 6, 2003 to June 13, 2005. If temps stay below 90 through June 30, 2015 we will break the record. June isn’t typically hot here, so we may just make a new record.

    Reply
  13. Don says:
    December 27, 2014 at 7:28 pm

    They don’t focus on the sun because there is nothing to be done about it, thus no money in it. But if you can blame humans, then something can be done. And please to send us some more money so we can model more as our current models are smoking craters, but we’ll get it right, eventually.

    Reply
  14. Gail Combs says:
    December 27, 2014 at 8:59 pm

    Sun, Ozone, Polar Jet and the Brewer-Dobson Circulation

    Morgan, this information will get you on the same page as ren and I. It is basic information about ozone in the atmosphere and circulation from the tropics to the poles.

    DIAGRAM
    http://www.goes-r.gov/users/comet/tropical/textbook_2nd_edition/media/graphics/brewer_dobson_2.jpg

    From: (wwwDOT)http://www.goes-r.gov/users/comet/tropical/textbook_2nd_edition/print_3.htm

    Climate Change Look up, Look out
    Basic Description

    …The most important part of the Stratosphere is the ozone layer which absorbs harmful incoming radiation from the sun.

    Stratosphere is divided into four zones:

    * Tropics -20°S to 20°N altituted 16 km (50,000 ft), ozone is created in this zone

    * Surf Zone – Middle and high latitudes, the area of air mixing

    * Polar Voretex – beyond 66.5° in each hemisphere

    * Lower Stratosphere – where temperatures stabilize then rise, just above the tropopause

    Surf Zone circulation becomes downward and poleward tending to push ozone in those directions;

    Polar Vortex air is very cold due to its near isolation from the Brewer-Dobson circulation…

    The Brewer-Dobson Circulation transports air molecules and ozone toward the polar regions and downward in the polar zones. Planetary Waves (temperature change and the Coriolis Effect) and large seasonal differences are primary influences of air circulation in the Strtosphere.

    QBO (Quasi-Biennial-Oscillation) is a fluctuation of easterly/westerly equatorial stratospheric winds, generally based on the stratispheric zonal wind at Singapore. The fluctuation occurs irregularly every 22 to 34 months. QBO occurs at higher altitudes (20-35 km) but impacts the atmospheric situation, much like the equatorial El Nino affects earth’s surface weather.

    Polar Night Jet is a jet stream over the polar winter regions which get no sun. This circular Jet Stream isolates polar stratospheric air from the rest of the stratosphere. It is stronger around the South Pole due to colder winters, higher winds, and a more stable environment than the North Pole. This circulation is the primary cause of the Ozone Hole which is enhanced by the polar Night Jet….

    This is why I already posted papers on the QBO (Quasi-Biennial-Oscillation) and ozone and its effects.

    CRITICAL

    3.2 The Brewer-Dobson Circulation in the Tropics

    The air that is slowly lifted out of the tropical troposphere into the stratosphere (see Figure 6.02 and 6.03) is very dry, with low ozone, and high CFC levels (see Figure 1.07 of Chapter 1). This tropical lifting circulation out of the lower stratosphere is quite slow, on the order of 20-30 meters per day. Most of the air rising into the stratosphere at the tropopause never makes it into the upper stratosphere. Between 16 and 32 km, the air density decreases by about 90%. This means that of the mass coming into the stratosphere at 16 km, approximately 90% of that mass will move towards the middle latitudes rather than be carried up to 32 km.

    3.2.1 Ozone Source Region — Air in the troposphere has relatively low ozone concentrations, except in highly polluted urban environments. Even polluted regions are relatively low when compared to stratospheric levels. As this “ozone clean” air moves slowly upward in the tropical stratosphere, ozone is being created by the slow photochemical production caused by the interaction of solar UV radiation and molecular oxygen.

    Ozone is created in this region because it is here that the Sun, positioned high overhead during the day all year long, is most intense. There is enough of the necessary sufficiently energetic UV light to split apart molecular oxygen, O2, and form ozone (see Chapters 1 and 5 for discussion of ozone production). It typically takes more than 6 months for air at 16 km (near the tropical tropopause) to rise up to about 27 km.

    Even though ozone production is small and slow in the lower tropical stratosphere, the slow lifting circulation allows enough time for ozone to build-up. Figure 6.03 shows this ozone density maximum up near 27 km. It is this that is commonly referred to as the “ozone layer”.

    3.3 The Brewer-Dobson Circulation in the Extratropical Latitudes
    In the stratosphere, the Brewer-Dobson circulation carries air from the equator to the poles. Poleward of about 30°N and 30°S, the circulation becomes downward as well as poleward. This poleward and downward circulation tends to increase ozone concentrations in the lower stratosphere of the middle and high (i.e. extratropical) latitudes. In Figure 6.03, we see this increase of ozone at lower altitudes in the higher latitudes as a direct result of this circulation.

    Another reason that ozone amounts increase in the lower stratosphere in the extratropical latitudes is that the lifetime of an ozone molecule gets longer here….Thus, ozone is not easily destroyed in the lower stratosphere. As a result, ozone can accumulate as the Brewer-Dobson circulation moves air poleward from the tropical production region into higher latitudes and downward into lower altitudes.

    3.4 <b.Theory of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation: Why Does It Exist?
    The mechanism behind the Brewer-Dobson circulation is both complex and quite interesting. At first glance, we might expect that the circulation results from solar heating in the tropics, and cooling in the polar region, causing a large equator to pole (meridional) overturning of air as warm (tropical) air rises and cold (polar) air sinks. While this heating and cooling does indeed occur, and while such a meridional overturning exists in the form of the so-called Hadley circulation (see section 3.8.1), it is not the specific reason for the existence of the Brewer-Dobson circulation. Rather, the Brewer-Dobson circulation results from wave motions in the extratropical stratosphere.

    3.4.1 Standing Planetary Waves and Wave Breaking
    — One type of atmospheric wave that exists is called the Rossby wave. Named for Carl G. Rossby, an early atmospheric research scientist, the Rossby wave exists due to a combination of meridional temperature gradients and the rotation of the planet (which produces the Coriolis force). The Rossby wave is a large-scale wave system whose size is thousands of kilometers in the horizontal and several kilometers in the vertical.

    Large-scale topographical features, like the Rocky Mountains and the Himalaya-Tibet complex, together with the meridional temperature gradients and Coriolis deflection, create a variation of Rossby waves called standing planetary waves. These have very long wavelengths (up to 10,000 kilometers) and either remain stationary or move slowly westward (i.e., they move easterly). They eventually propagate vertically into the stratosphere.

    3.4.2 Polar Night Jet Deceleration and Radiative Imbalance
    — When a standing planetary wave reaches the stratosphere, it deposits its easterly momentum, decelerating the westerly wintertime stratospheric jet stream. This is the polar night jet we discussed in section 2.4.2-c and depicted in Figure 6.02. The polar night jet slows and can even be displaced, which has the effect of displacing the polar vortex region.

    The deposition of easterly momentum into the polar stratosphere and the deceleration of the polar night jet is known as “wave breaking” (see section 4.1.2). It produces the phenomenon of the stratospheric sudden warming (see Chapter 2, section 4.2.2) as warmer middle latitude and even tropical air intrudes into the geographic polar region. This result is a situation that is thermodynamically imbalanced. Wintertime radiational cooling in the polar stratosphere quickly begins.

    3.4.3 Sinking Air and Meridional Overturning
    — This cooling of air is accompanied by sinking motions, since colder air is more dense and it sinks. It is this sinking motion that establishes the meridional overturning from equator to pole in the winter hemisphere. That is, the sinking air in the polar region must be balanced by a poleward flow of air into this region. By mass continuity requirements, this air must come from the tropics. Our Brewer-Dobson circulation cell is thus established as tropical air moving poleward to replace the sinking air at the poles is itself replaced by rising air in the tropics (see Figure 6.03).

    https://courses.seas.harvard.edu/climate/eli/Courses/EPS281r/Sources/Stratospheric-circulation/2-Cordero-etal-chapter-6.3.pdf

    Morgan, I strongly recommend you read the rest of this.

    Reply
  16. ren says:
    December 27, 2014 at 9:31 pm

    Sorry, January 4, 2015.

    Reply
  17. Sparks says:
    December 27, 2014 at 9:58 pm

    There’s plenty of Ice where I live, I foretasted it years ago, when we were having mild winters without ice on the ground, when people like Al gore were pushing “climate alarm” and the “experts” were sending dubious e-mails to each other lol

    Even last night the bbc an article about how Sheffield had a light dusting of snow and it was raining with some sleet, while some photographers/reporters on twitter were posting photos of heavy snow and saying people were abandoning their cars.

    Reply
  18. Lawrence 13 says:
    December 28, 2014 at 10:02 pm

    Well as I live in London and that’s part of Europe I have to say the weathers been cold the last few days but nothing sensational even the snow hat never was never was yes across the UK there was some settled snow but in the bulk of the UK it was rain. Sorry to contradict but bull shite added to bull shite just make even more bull shite. By the way take no notice of the UKMO website as it has two masters AGW and H&S. AGW make it make preposterous heat wave and wet stormy mild winter forecasts and H&S madness makes UKMO exaggerate every f*(king snowflake . To be honest I’m sick to the teeth of UKMO over the last twenty years giving out red, Orange and Yellow warnings for rain FFS.

    Its 22:01 GMT as I write and the London weather dry and frosty but not in a million years brutal.

    Reply

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