Are Government Temperature Graphs Credible?

Ninety years ago, the New York Times reported unanimous consensus that Earth’s climate was controlled by the sun.

TimesMachine: July 2, 1931 – NYTimes.com

Now NASA reports 97% consensus that Earth’s climate is controlled by CO2.

“Multiple studies published in peer-reviewed scientific journals show that 97 percent or more of actively publishing climate scientists agree*: Climate-warming trends over the past century are extremely likely due to human activities.”

Scientific Consensus | Facts – Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet

I agree with them – the warming trends over the last century are primarily due to human activities – data tampering by organizations like NASA and NOAA. For example, over the past 20 years NASA has turned a 70 year cooling trend in the US from 1930 to 2000 into a warming trend. This is the 1999 version.

NASA 1999

And this is NASA’s current graph.

NASA 2021

Here is an animation showing how the data has been altered over the past 20 years.

The US temperature record is very important, because the vast majority of global stations in the NOAA GHCN database with a long term daily temperature record are located in the US.

station-counts-1891-1920-temp.png

In 1986, NASA’s James Hansen predicted 4-6 degrees warming for the US by the year 2020, and a huge increase in heatwaves.

“He said that with an expected doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide by 2040, the number of days each year with temperatures over 80 degrees would rise from 35 to 85 in Washington, D.C., and Omaha, Neb.”

12 Jun 1986, Page 12 – The Evening Times at Newspapers.com

The actual temperature increase from 1958 to 2020 was about one degree.

The closest currently operational USHCN station to Omaha is at Logan, Iowa. The number of 90 degree days there peaked in 1894 and 1936 (83) and have been declining sharply ever since.

The closest currently operational USHCN station in Virginia to Washington DC is at Purcellville.  The number of 90 degree days there peaked in 1911 (96) and 1930 (89) and have been declining sharply ever since.

For the entire US, the frequency of 90 degree days has dropped sharply over the past century. Hansen got that exactly backwards.

In 1988, Hansen predicted a large increase in droughts.

“Dr. James E. Hansen, director of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, who presented recent data compiled from computer models, said that predicted regional effects of global warming show that the chances of summer drought in the low and middle latitudes would be 1 in 3 by the year 2030, as against 1 in 20 in the 1950’s.”

FEROCIOUS STORMS AND DROUGHT SEEN – The New York Times

During the 1950’s the US was in drought most of the time, but droughts have been much less common over the past 60 years. Hansen also got that exactly backwards.

Climate at a Glance | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)

One year after Hansen made his forecasts, scientists at NOAA set the record straight.

U.S. Data Since 1895 Fail To Show Warming Trend

“After examining climate data extending back nearly 100 years, a team of Government scientists has concluded that there has been no significant change in average temperatures or rainfall in the United States over that entire period.

While the nation’s weather in individual years or even for periods of years has been hotter or cooler and drier or wetter than in other periods, the new study shows that over the last century there has been no trend in one direction or another.

The study, made by scientists for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration was published in the current issue of Geophysical Research Letters. It is based on temperature and precipitation readings taken at weather stations around the country from 1895 to 1987.”

U.S. Data Since 1895 Fail To Show Warming Trend – NYTimes.com

Ten years later, Hansen was upset that the US wasn’t warming as he predicted and the droughts weren’t occurring.

Empirical evidence does not lend much support to the notion that climate is headed precipitately toward more extreme heat and drought. The drought of 1999 covered a smaller area than the 1988 drought, when the Mississippi almost dried up. And 1988 was a temporary inconvenience as compared with repeated droughts during the 1930s “Dust Bowl” that caused an exodus from the prairies, as chronicled in Steinbeck’s Grapes of Wrath.

The U.S. has warmed during the past century, but the warming hardly exceeds year-to-year variability. Indeed, in the U.S. the warmest decade was the 1930s and the warmest year was 1934.

NASA GISS: Science Briefs: Whither U.S. Climate?

So Hansen and NOAA got together and altered the US temperature record. NOAA now shows a warming trend from 1895 to 1987.

Climate at a Glance | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)

In 2004, NOAA showed that they were altering US temperatures by 0.5F since the year 1900, with no further charges after 1990.

Wayback Machine

But now they are altering the data by 2.0F.

This graph compares the 2004 adjustments in blue, to the current adjustments in red.

And this graph normalizes the two sets of adjustments along the Y-Axis. There has been a huge increase in the amount of data tampering for years since 1990.

The NOAA adjustments trend very closely with the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, or at least they did until three years ago, when there was a huge increase in the amount of tampering.

NOAA fabricates missing data using a computer model, and last year almost 50% of their monthly US temperature data was fabricated.

This is the data for Brewton, Alabama. If the data is estimated rather than measured, it is marked with an “E” – All twelve months of 2020 were marked with an E.

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ushcn/v2.5/ushcn.tavg.latest.FLs.52j.tar.gz

The current data tampering is huge. The measured daily maximum temperature data for the US shows a strong cooling trend.

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ushcn/v2.5/

But the adjusted data shows a strong warming trend.

The total adjustment to US average temperatures is more than two degrees Fahrenheit.

Plotted vs. CO2, it can be seen that until the last three years, the adjustments being made very closely tracked the increase in CO2. Data is being altered to match their theory.

07 Dec 1989, Page 14 – Santa Cruz Sentinel at Newspapers.com

NOAA graphs now show a warming trend from 1921 to 1979.

Climate at a Glance | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)

Climate at a Glance | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)

One hundred years ago, the New York Times reported that earth had a fever.

“an intermittent fever, manifested in a world-wide heat wave of unusual length and intensity.”

TimesMachine: October 3, 1921 – NYTimes.com

04 Sep 1921, 61 – New York Herald at Newspapers.com

Yet NASA now shows 1921 was one of the coldest years on record.

NASA Link

CRUTEM4 shows that 1921 was hot. January was very warm in much of the world.

NetCDF

25 Jan 1921, Page 5 – The Age at Newspapers.com

This animation shows CRUTEM4 anomalies for all of 1921.

In 1921, the Arctic was very warm and glaciers were rapidly disappearing.

TimesMachine: February 25, 1923 – NYTimes.com

01 Mar 1923, 4 – Chicago Tribune at Newspapers.com

In 1922, the New York Times reported 100 degree temperatures in the Arctic.

TimesMachine: August 6, 1922 – NYTimes.com

National Geographic Magazine Archive

The ice between Alaska and the North Pole was thinrotten new ice.

29 Jan 1922, Page 35 – The St. Louis Star and Times at Newspapers.com

Much of the world was experiencing exceptional heat, including Alaska.

01 Aug 1921, Page 4 – The Cincinnati Enquirer at Newspapers.com

14 Aug 1922 – Misplaced Tropical Heat. – Trove

14 Aug 1922 – CHINESE TYPHOON. – Trove

07 Apr 1923 – NORTH POLE MELTING. – Trove

Glaciers in Glacier National Park were forecast to disappear before 1950.

29 Dec 1923, Page 5 – at Newspapers.com

The world record heatwave occurred at Marble Bar, West Australia in 1923-1924.  BOM has since deleted this article.

BOM – Australian Climate Extremes

The average daily maximum temperature in Texas was highest on record in 1921.

Encinal, Texas had 157 consecutive days above 90F in 1921, the Texas record.

The percent of warm days in the US during 1921 was the highest on record, with 58% of days over 65F.

The average daily maximum temperature in the US during 1921 was second highest on record.

There was also lots of extreme weather in 1921.

11 Feb 1921, Page 2 – The Washington Post at Newspapers.com

21 Sep 1921, 3 – News-Journal at Newspapers.com

Pueblo, Colorado was largely wiped out by a flood during June, 1921.  Much of Kansas suffered damage, and there was flooding on the Pecos River in New Mexico and Texas.

06 Jun 1921, 1 – The Arkansas City Daily News at Newspapers.com

It is estimated that 1,500 people in Pueblo, Colorado died during that flood.

Microsoft Word – Document1

 

127-Degree Heat in Zaragoza. – The New York Times

17 Dec 1939, Page 15 – Harrisburg Sunday Courier

13 Oct 1940, Page 76 – Hartford Courant at Newspapers.com

The Changing Face of the Arctic; The Changing Face of the Arctic – The New York Times

14 Jul 1974, Page 1 – Lincoln Evening Journal at Newspapers.com

briffa_recon.gif (420×320)

graph.png (1130×600)

NASA 2021             NCAR 1974

National Geographic Magazine Archive

January 30, 1961 – NYTimes

18 Jul 1963 – Glaciers Grow In Norway – Trove

U.S. and Soviet Press Studies of a Colder Arctic – The New York Times

washingtonpost.com – search nation, world, technology and Washington area news archives.

U.S. Scientist Sees New Ice Age Coming

The National Geographic Archive | November 1976 | page 1

International Team of Specialists Finds No End in Sight to 30‐Year Cooling Trend in Northern Hemisphere – The New York Times

di2.nu/foia/1254108338.txt

Wood for Trees: Interactive Graphs

Data.GISS: GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP v4)

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20 Responses to Are Government Temperature Graphs Credible?

  1. gbaikie says:

    Global warming would have increased global water vapor and increase would mostly outside of the tropical zone. And with less dry conditions one should get a higher average yearly air temperature. And have less highest daytime temperatures.
    Or having highest ever recorded daytime temperature about 100 years ago, fits with the notion that global average temperature has increased over last hundred years.
    During warmest period of our Holocene and warmest time during our last interglacial period, the Eemian, the Sahara desert was grassland and forests. Or much wetter and having higher average temperature, but less highest temperature days. Or mostly warmer nights, though warmer night general is followed with warm day, but dry conditions give highest daytime temperature.
    Or moist region in tropic, don’t give highest daytime temperature, despite the tropics getting the more than 1/2 of Earth’s sunlight in region which 40% of the area of Earth.

    Now the whole greenhouse effect theory is wrong and what is the control knob is not greenhouse gases, but rather it’s the temperature of the entire ocean. Our entire ocean is cold and it averages about 3.5 C. If our ocean was instead about 3 C, we would have cooler world than we had during the Little Ice Age. And if ocean about 4 C we have global temperatures of warmest times in interglacial period {like in Holocene Maxium and warmer time of Eemian. Eemian at warmest probably had ocean warmer than 4 C. And certainly had much higher sea levels, then we currently have.
    Our ocean getting warmer than 4 C, is the world the alarmist are alarmed about- could have a fair amount sea level rise. Certainly have ice free summer polar ice situation.
    And NASA say things like more than 90% of global warming is warming the deeper ocean. But more like 99% of global warming is warming the entire ocean.
    But it takes long time to warm or cool the ocean by .5 C.

    • Good stuff. However, the theory based almost exclusively on radiative heat transfer controlling the process, although practically universally accepted, has a few problems. Firstly, adding water vapour to the atmosphere changes the temperature lapse rate. In saturated air we expect it to be as low as 3.5K per kilometre, for dry air 9.8K per kilometre, it is typically 6.5K per kilometre. The temperature is fixed at about 216 K in the tropopause, which in temperate regions stays at about 11km, so the net effect of water vapour is to cool, not warm, the surface. Why else are arid deserts hot, despite the fact that sand has a very high albedo? Also, the local albedo of the open oceans is in the region of 0.06, whilst for land it can vary from about 0.15 to 0.4, so we should expect oceans under radiative heat transfer to be warmer than land. The fact of the matter is the situation is dominated by convection in the tropopause, which although not accounting for the majority of the heat flow, determines the actual temperature. Global warming is based essentially on a radiative theory which might represent the stratosphere quite well, but is utter nonsense when applied to the troposphere.

  2. Smithy says:

    Fascinating stuff – clearly the data no longer matches the historical record. It’s been fixed. But concerning sunspots – although there looks to be a correlation with the NCAR graph up to 1975, from then on sunspots continue a general decline to a low point in the 21st century (when you change the end date to 2020 on Wood for Trees). This does not match the UAH global temperature data which shows an increase over that time. This matches Willis Eschenbach’s finding of no correlation with sunspots – which was not what he expected.

  3. arn says:

    More than 100 years ago the Rockefellers became the most hated people of the USA after the Ludlow massacre.
    In return they invented corporate PR(AGW is hust another version of this)
    and within just 5 years and with the help of Ivy Lee and their billionaire friends
    who owned the MSM they became the most beloved philantrophs of the USA.
    They turned themselves from global cooling into (a good)global warming within a very short period of time by manipulating the data and controlling the narrative & the experts.
    That’s when they realised that they can get away with anything if they controle the data and informations.
    And even sponsoring Hitler and his eugenics programm
    and later running the shadow world government Bilderberger didnt ruin their reputation
    as the MSM simply branded the Hitler support a conspiracy theory and the Bilderbergers(after it was no longer possible to deny it) an informal meeting.
    Just a little bit of rhetorical adjustments,a handfull of triggerwords + organised ignorance by the msm was necessary to keep up the fake positive image.
    That”s when they realise that anything goes as long as you controle the information flow & the guys called experts and that they can come up with any kind of fake story and turn it into reality.
    The reason they chose the climate as trojan horse for a global agenda was simple.
    Climate is the big brother of the biggest lying branch of the MSM.
    The weather reports.
    People get bombed by wrong weather forecasts all of their life,but they don’t care and still believe the experts though they are proven wrong times and times again.
    And this trick also works on a bigger scale called climate.

    Controle the narrative and flow of informations,make people feel smart,good and superior and reality and truth don’t matter.

  4. dm says:

    Devastating article!

    “Mannipulation” should be used for the data tampering revealed in this article.

  5. GeologyJim says:

    What you have expertly documented, Tony, is exactly the “Disinformation Campaign” that Mikey Mann keeps blabbering about.

    None so easily fooled as the “highly educated”

    Keep up the great work!

  6. Great resource materials. Thanks Tony.

  7. james l feltus says:

    For Robert’s eyes:
    Is there one too many “warmings” in this sentence?: “For example, over the past 20 years NASA has turned a 70 year warming trend in the US from 1930 to 2000 into a warming trend.”

  8. saveenergy says:

    Typo alert
    NASA has turned a 70 year warming trend in the US from 1930 to 2000 into a warming trend.
    Shouldn’t that read –
    NASA has turned a 70 year ‘COOLING’ trend in the US from 1930 to 2000 into a warming trend.

  9. Mark Anderson says:

    I agree with them – the warming trends over the last century are primarily due to human activities – data tampering by organizations like NASA and NOAA. For example, over the past 20 years NASA has turned a 70 year warming trend in the US from 1930 to 2000 into a warming trend. This is the 1999 version.

    Did you mean “cooling” trend?

  10. richard c merrill says:

    I’s don’t remember the Mississippi river drying up in the 80’s even though I lived nest to it. I don’t think it has ever been below “base flow” in my lifetime.

  11. Christina G says:

    This is crazy! NASA, is changing facts to fit the climate change nonsense onto the population to endorse tyrannical mandates that never end we will be eating bugs and drinking piss water if they get their way. This information needs to be shown to the masses!

  12. james l feltus says:

    Excuse me, Tony…I got you mixed up with Robert Felix.

  13. Robert Iasky says:

    Tony,

    In the last graph, which has superimposed the temperature and sunspot count records, the shape of the curves match surprisingly well, but the sunspot record is offset from the temperature record by about 10 years so that temperature variations precede sun activity. Shouldn’t it be the other way around? i.e. sun activity should occur before temperature changes?

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