IPCC Sea Level Projections

The IPCC says sea level rise is irreversible for centuries.

This is an accurate statement, because sea level has been rising for 20,000 years.

Post-Glacial Sea Level.png – Wikimedia Commons×1113)

NOAA has six different sea level scenarios.

CO-OPS Technical Report

They have started providing comparison graphs for US stations. Sea level is rising at or below the lowest scenario.

Sea level at Sweden is falling at the same rate as it was when Greta Thunberg ‘s ancestor Svante Arrhenius started the global warming scare in the 19th century.

Sea Level Trends – NOAA Tides & Currents

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9 Responses to IPCC Sea Level Projections

  1. Conrad Ziefle says:

    Most high school science students can do a regression from the existing data. A grade school student can draw a line extrapolating a graph of existing data. Yet, these PhD scientists publish these wildly deviating exponentially increasing curves while they maintain a straight face. Well, extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. So far, forty years of extraordinary claims have been not been negated by the ordinary data.

  2. Conrad Ziefle says:

    So far, forty years of extraordinary claims have been negated by the ordinary data. Sorry, I proofread after publishing.

  3. Robert Rust says:

    Longterm (1 million+ years), scientifically-produced ocean level graphs show a punch-in-the-face clear, irregularly-repeating cycle of world ocean levels, the average period being 20,000 years in the last 1 million years. The graphs show that we are currently at the maximum of a cycle and the beginning of an ocean level drop is imminent, likely occurring in next 100 years based on a considerate examination of the characteristics of the graphs.

    An unbiased, non-politicized study of geology reveals that the cause of the cyclic ocean level is Earth’s irregularly periodic crustal displacement behaviour which has an almost identically matching effect on atmospheric CO2 and methane, as well as local temperature in Vostok and Epica locations in Antartica. When one looks at all of these graphs, namely ice core data and ocean level data, one sees that a crustal displacement is beyond imminent, about to step through the open doorway.

    Consideration of the oblate shape of Earth and its crustal fissure and fracture system points out that earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanism will increase 10,000 to 100,000 times current levels during the approximate 2000 years time span of the displacement, the first year of the suddenly-starting displacement logically elevating these disasters by 50 to 100 times. It is not sea level rise or fall, changing climates in various regions of the world, nor changing atmospheric CO2 and CH4 levels that modern humanity must fear and be prepared for, it is the true cause of the graphed rises and falls that is the concern, the crustal displacement that is almost immediately coming and will wipe out the frail-living, technologically unprepared, profit-based, belief/religion-chasing, Earth-blind, elite family cartel-ruled, modern civilization and modern humanity. Extremely simple, natural living, tiny pockets of humanity may survive, but modern humanity and its modern civilization are a dead man walking, about to be executed by Earth.

  4. Windsong says:

    Washington State coastal Native American communities are moving uphill* due in part to the “rising sea level brought about by climate change.” Tide gauges on the Washington coast show no major decline, and Neah Bay in the far NW corner of the state show sea level falling. (Due to rebounding land.) The tribe featured in the story below built their town close to the ocean on an estuary. Other US taxpayers get to pay for moving it. OP money; what’s not to like?
    *Not mentioned, but moving uphill to mitigate tsunami risks from an overdue Cascadia subduction zone earthquake would be at the top of my list.

  5. Carlton Schroeder says:

    Our climate cycles through glacial and interglacial periods that together average about 100,000 years in length. The glacial periods average about 80,000 years long and the interglacial periods average about 20,000 years long. We are currently in an interglacial period and the previous interglacial period was about 100,000 years ago. And about ten interglacial periods have occurred in the last 1,000,000 years. As glacial ice and snow on the earth’s land areas melt during the warm interglacial periods, sea levels naturally rise 10 to 20 ft above current sea level, and in extremely warm periods the rise can be 10’s of feet more. In the cold glacial periods the drop in sea levels is even more dramatic as snow and ice accumulate on the land areas. These natural changes will continue to occur and while these very lengthy timeframes are hard to comprehend, we can be confident that for some length of time (10, 100, or maybe 1000 generations) temperatures and sea levels will likely continue to increase and then at some point the increase will stop and temperatures and sea levels will begin to decrease as our current interglacial period comes to an end and the glacial period begins. Since there is no way to stop these natural climate change consequences they have to be managed with sea walls and other protective measures and better coastal development management. When a man-made climate change consequence can be identified and quantified, it certainly should be eliminated or mitigated, and we should also use all our resources wisely and efficiently, but it would be very wasteful and folly to attempt to reduce natural climate change consequences.

  6. Wes Gross says:

    I am not a climatologist or any other kind of scientist – just a humble retired pilot. I would suggest that a study of geologic time frames as they relate to climate change may place much of the hysteria in perspective. We are currently in the Quaternary period (from present time back 2.588 million years), the latest of the three periods of the Cenozoic Era. There have been several formations and decays of continental ice sheets during this time. The latest (based on the graph submitted in this article) peaked out about 21,000 years ago. At that time, the sea level was about 120 meters below what it is today (that’s 394 feet for us metric-challenged folks) As you might expect, the global climate has been warming and the sea levels have been rising well in advance of industrialization. I’ve seen an estimate that; if all industrialization was eliminated today, in about 50,000 years the global sea levels will rise at least another 417 feet. Just for reference, Britton Hill, northwest of Pensacola, FL, near the Alabama border is the highest natural geographical point in Florida at 345 feet msl.

  7. Christopher Morton says:

    I can buy that artificially produced CO2 can impact earth’s natural cycle at the margins. How much? Given the large feedback cycle and nature’s complexity (we know very little about nature actually, despite our hubris), that is likely unnoticeable in geological time. Sea levels have been rising for 20,000 years. Thank God, because those glaciers covered some of the best farm and grazing land (not just for man but the huge mammals of the era), but occurred because we left the ice age. We are still leaving it. 20,000 years on a planet with a complex ecosystem such as earth is mere seconds. But for us, the last year is a millennium. Were we to extrapolate life’s future based on the last year, we’d get some wacky results and solutions to issues that longterm are minor.

    I’ll just propose this back to the IPCC. What if your recommendations cause a negative climatic event? That efforts to slow growth push the next ice age forward a century or two? Now, unlikely I grant you. But are you so certain? If your attempts to stop the rise of the seas (didn’t Obama already stop that?) changes cycles you still know so little about (El Nino/La Nina is still largely a mystery)? It’s called humility.

    I’m happy to make real lifestyle changes for real issues. But until there is talk of a global nuclear power building program (run and regulated by the best but for the benefit of all nations), you are a joke. Because you certainly don’t want to personally live poorer. And China has no intention of doing anything with this report aside from making loo paper. A serious discussion has to be honest about best solutions (mining large quantities of rare earth minerals to make wind turbines that aren’t recyclable…yes, you are a joke). You can’t offer real ones, which means mitigation of whatever happens due to earth’s ever changing climate remains the better (cheaper) solution.

    Oh, and why is 1988 climate of 1965 or any year the perfect climate level? Did I miss the memo from the gods?

  8. Walt Bates says:

    Another Humble Retired Pilot here…….
    Airline Pilots have a unique opportunity to observe climate change or lack thereof. When the fear of global cooling ended in about 1979 it was replaced by the opposite. We were told that one of the earliest changes would be the formation of a “mid-troposphere hot zone” (search it). The mid-troposphere is where I spent nearly 40 years with United Airlines. Such a prediction was unsettling. High altitude OATs effect our best cruise altitudes. our step climb schedules, the height of the tropopause and its associated turbulence, mach numbers and the altitude of the dreaded “coffin corner” (search that, too). The height of the “trope” is so important it was pre-printed on our flight plans at every waypoint and there can be 50 or more on an over the pole flight to China.
    I’ll cut to the chase. It didn’t happen. The worldwide average altitude of the trope was the same when I retired in 2004 as when I started in 1965.
    Sure, the CO2 concentration went up during that period but did you see Gore’s Inconvenient Truth? He shows a 600,000 year graph showing CO2 and Temps and those two lines are in absolute lockstep. What he doesn’t tell you is that most of the time, Temp moves first FOLLOWED BY the CO2 content.
    These changes that are happening are all within normal ranges. It was Rahm Emanuel who said “Never let a crisis go to waste”. He could have added “And if there doesn’t happen to be one…….create one!” That’s all this is.

  9. James518 Shanley says:

    The ice cap over North Eastern US and Eastern Canada attained a thickness of about 2 miles. At maximum the oceans were estimated to be 400 ft lower than present. I think it’s obvious that 400 ft of ocean water ended up in ice caps by means of evaporation. You don’t get evaporation of that magnitude without heat. Where did all that heat come from and where did it go?

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