Stupidity and insanity is the new normal.
But researchers have recently been startled to see big changes unfold in both Greenland and Antarctica.
As a result of recent calculations that take the changes into account, many scientists now say that sea level is likely to rise perhaps three feet by 2100 — an increase that, should it come to pass, would pose a threat to coastal regions the world over.
And the calculations suggest that the rise could conceivably exceed six feet, which would put thousands of square miles of the American coastline under water and would probably displace tens of millions of people in Asia.
As Glaciers Melt, Science Seeks Data on Rising Seas – NYTimes.com
Sea level measurements have been steady in New York for 150 years. Post glacial rebound is causing the land to sink at a constant rate.
“As a result of recent calculations… And the calculations suggest…”
Calculation = Model.
Model driven drivel.
@ “Model driven drivel”
I posted on the BAMS “State Of The Climate, 2008” publication, which had established that IPCC models would be falsified at the 95% level on a decadal scale after 15 years of near-zero temperature rise which is now a fact.
I’m waiting for the science community to speak up and challenge IPCC model accuracy. If the scientific community does not speak up then one has to wonder what is the reason for science being applied to climate change?
I’m sure once Julienne and Don hear of this, they will stop playing with these models immediately, and hold a live press conference to tell everyone they were wrong.
But, but the computers!
The models’ said it is true.
You can’t argue against them!
Can you?
What nonsense. See:
http://www.sealevel.info/papers.html
esp.:
21. Burton D (2012). Comments on “Assessing future risk: quantifying the effects of sea level rise on storm surge risk for the southern shores of Long Island, New York,” by Shepard, et al. J. Natural Hazards. doi:10.1007/s11069-012-0159-8
The best projection is that NYC will see 9-10 inches of local sea level rise by 2100, about half of it due to land subsidence, rather than secular sea level change.
“The best projection is that NYC will see 9-10 inches” from computer models?
LOL
“Since the rate of sea level rise has not increased significantly in response to the last 3/4 century of CO2 emissions, there is no reason to expect that it will do so in response to the next 3/4 century of CO2 emissions. The best prediction for sea level in the future is simply a linear projection of the history of sea level at the same location in the past…”
…which is 9-10 inches for The Battery (NYC), about half of it due to land subsidence, rather than secular sea level change.
There is a new book out which is titled “Merchants of Despair: Radical Environmentalists, Criminal Pseudo-Scientists, and the Fatal Cult of Antihumanism”. I think “merchants of despair” is an apt name for those like NYT’s Justin Gillis.
I can predict that little green men will be colonizing the moon by 2100 and that nobody in our lifetime will prove me wrong.
I agree, it is pretty awesome that predictions of climate disaster can be made, they can be wrong, and there is no accountability if they fail!
You need to change the word “will” to “could” – that way nobody can say your claim is stupid.
There was much discussion in the climatological literature from the 30’s and 40’s (and later) about the dramatic melting of glaciers – which seemed to be associated with the general increase in temperatures. But I haven’t yet come across any forecasts of 6-foot sea level rises from those saner times.
Real Climate won’t post real science within their blog:
In regard to – http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2012/08/climate-indices-to-watch/
“It would be great to compare C02 references with the 1000hPa, 800hPa, 500hPa, 200Hpa right on up to the 10hPa level. It would also be nice to compare the measurements with changes with PDO, AO, NAO, Indian Dipole and the Antarctic stream.”
Umm. The title of this post says 6 feet, but the quoted section says 3. And wouldn’t post glacial rebound cause the land to rise due to lack of weight of ice pushing it down and thus sea level to fall?
What am I missing?
John M Reynolds
Reading difficulties?
” the calculations suggest that the rise could conceivably exceed six feet”
Mr. Sudbury,
The North American plate is like a see-saw with the former ice sheet mostly on one end (the northern one). As that sheet has melted, it has caused the southern half to sink. Last I knew, the sinking of the southern half has been observed to still be in progress, though I’d imagine it’s not as fast as it used to be. If you’re wondering why NYC would be so affected, consider that the fulcrum of the plate might not be directly at the median latitude.
RTF
My understanding is that the main NYC tide gauge, at Battery Park, at the southern tip of Manhattan, is either on or immediately adjacent to an extension of the island which was created from landfill. It’s sinking.
For that matter, almost all of Manhattan is “landfill,” or more precisely, glacial till. You can gauge the rough distance to bedrock by the height of the buildings – the higher the bedrock, the higher the buildings.
The new normal? Stupidity has been the normal at the Grey Lady (and w/ Gillis) for as long as I can remember. As for insanity, well, to paraphrase Robert Heinlein, never ascribe to insanity what can just as plausibly be ascribed to feeble-mindedness.