Real Climate Science

“There are lies., damned lies, and statistics”
– Mark Twain

“It will be remembered as the greatest mass delusion in the history of the world – that CO2, the life of plants, was considered for a time to be a deadly poison.”
– Richard Lindzen, Professor Emeritus, Earth Sciences, M.I.T

In 1974, there was unanimous consensus among scientists that earth had been cooling since the 1940s.

21 Jul 1974, 13 – The Des Moines Register at Newspapers.com

National Academy Of Sciences

January 30, 1961 – NYTimes

Fast forward forty-five years. A small group of people, many of whom who were not alive in 1974, have determined they know more about the weather in 1974 than the scientists who lived through it and studied it at the time.

graph.png (1130×600)

Zeke Hausfather, who openly brags about being a left-wing activist, is one of those people. He believes that adding tens of thousands of very low quality fragmented records into the database, has improved the quality of the temperature record.

It is simple enough to test out which version of the pre-1980 temperature record is better. The version made by the people who lived through it, or the younger people now who are paid to generate graphs which show a lot of warming.  We can compare the two versions vs. historical accounts of ice and other observations.

It’s amazing how many people even today use a computer to do something you can do with a pencil and paper in less time.
– Richard P. Feynman

“Have no respect whatsoever for authority; forget who said it and instead look what he starts with, where he ends up, and ask yourself, “Is it reasonable?”
– Richard P. Feynman

“The test of all knowledge is experiment. Experiment is the sole judge of scientific truth.”
– Richard P. Feynman

Glaciers and sea ice were rapidly shrinking during the first half of the 20th century.

16 Aug 1902 – Alpine Glaciers Disappearing. – Trove

27 Jul 1903, Page 4 – The Tribune at Newspapers.com

13 Oct 1910, Page 7 – Aberdeen Herald

ftp://ftp.library.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/mwr/064/mwr-064-02-c1.pdf

29 Dec 1923, Page 5 – at Newspapers.com

GLACIERS Now in Full Retreat in the Alps, NYTimes.com

AN ICE AGE PASSES. – Editorial – NYTimes.com

17 Dec 1939, Page 15 – Harrisburg Sunday Courier at Newspapers.com

29 Sep 1939 – What is The World Coming To? – Trove

13 Oct 1940, Page 76 – Hartford Courant at Newspapers.com

31 May 1947 – MELTING ICE CAP DANGER – Trove

18 Feb 1952 – Melting Icecaps Mystery – Trove

02 Mar 1954 – Canadians to Move Town Threatened by Thaw – Trove

10 Mar 1955, Page 3 – Democrat and Chronicle at Newspapers.com

The Changing Face of the Arctic; The Changing Face of the Arctic – The New York Times

The National Geographic Archive | November 1976 | page 1

But a few years before 1960, things changed. Earth started cooling rapidly, and ice started expanding.

January 30, 1961 – NYTimes

18 Jul 1963 – Glaciers Grow In Norway

U.S. and Soviet Press Studies of a Colder Arctic – The New York Times

14 Apr 1973, Page 8 – Iowa City Press-Citizen

The National Geographic Archive | November 1976 | page 1

We have a number of historical data points. Let’s plot them on the different graphs and see which make sense. In the 1974 NCAR graph, ice melts at high temperatures, and forms at low temperatures.

But in the current NASA graph, Ice melts at low temperatures, and forms at high temperatures. This makes no sense and shows us that the graph is bogus.

Climate scientists colluded to make these worthless graphs.

di2.nu/foia/1254108338.txt

If we look at only high quality temperature data from Australia, the graph makes sense.

But the official BOM graph makes no sense.

The 1979 US temperature graph from NASA made sense.

1999_Hansen_ha03200f.pdf

The current version makes no sense.

It is crystal clear that current official temperature graphs are nonsense.

“No government has the right to decide on the truth of scientific principles, nor to prescribe in any way the character of the questions investigated.”
– Richard Feynman

Government funded scientists say the Arctic is warming at an astonishing rate.

Scientists released this year’s Arctic Report Card on Tuesday, and it is a dismal one. Researchers say the Arctic continues to warm up at rates they call “astonishing.”

Arctic Is Warming At ‘Astonishing’ Rates, Researchers Say : The Two-Way : NPR

Almost 70 years ago, experts used the exact same words.

Dr. William S. Carlson, an Arctic expert, said last night that Polar icecaps were melting at an astonishing and unexplained rate and threatening to swamp seaports by raising ocean levels.

“The glaciers of Norway and Alaska,” he said, “are only half the size they were 50 years ago.”

18 Feb 1952 – Melting Icecaps Mystery – Trove

Zeke seems to think his poor data practices supersede the historical record.

March 1, 1975 | Science News

The exact same thing was done by Michael Mann to the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age.

ipcc_far_wg_I_chapter_07.pdf

Challenge_chapter2.pdf

January 22, 1934 – NYTimes.com

02 Jul 1891, Page 4 – The St Johns Herald at Newspapers.com

U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works

TAR-02

There was a time when climate scientists did actual science.  We need to return to that.

27 Sep 1973, Page 38 – El Paso Herald-Post at Newspapers.com

Dr. Roberts was spot on.

climate-assessment-1981-1990.pdf

The summer of 1976 was the warmest and driest on record in England.

29 Aug 1976, Page 11 – Statesman Journal at Newspapers.com

By 1977, California was experiencing their worst drought on record.

TimesMachine: March 8, 1977 – NYTimes.com

22 Sep 1951 – SUN’S EFFECT ON THE EARTH

National Geographic : 1967 Feb, Page 194

TimesMachine: July 2, 1931 – NYTimes.com

In 1936, the Australian Medical Congress was certain about the relationship between sunspots and natural disasters.

28 Jan 1936 – SUNSPOTS – Trove

In 1932, scientists showed a close correspondence between sunspot cycles and past climate.

12 Dec 1932, 12 – The Atlanta Constitution at Newspapers.com

In 1994, astronomers showed a correlation between the length of sunspot cycles and Earth’s temperature.

08 Apr 1994 – Sunspots linked to global warming – Trove

The relationship between sunspots and grain prices has long been known.

10 Aug 1886 – Sunspots and Grain Prices. – Trove

This idea was first proposed by British astronomer William Herschel in 1801, and confirmed 200 years later.

Sun set food prices in the Middle Ages : Nature News

07 May 1951, Page 9 – The Pantagraph at Newspapers.com

Dr. Willett was spot on. We need real scientists like Willet and Walter Orr Roberts – not arrogant hacks like Mann and Hausfather.

21 Jul 1974, 13 – The Des Moines Register at Newspapers.com

Scientists now claim that a 0.0001 mole fraction increase in CO2 over the past century controls the climate.  This is because the Sun can’t be controlled, scientists can’t pretend they know how to prevent bad weather, and politicians can’t use sunspots as an excuse to raise taxes and control energy policy.

The 1:10,000 increase in atmospheric CO2 over the past century is equivalent to packing an extra two people into Madison Square Garden

People like Hausfather have been using bad data to promote imaginary climate change for over 150 years. Time to bring this episode to an end.

10 Jan 1871 – IMAGINARY CHANGES OF CLIMATE

Zeke claims that there was no cooling in the Southern Hemisphere from 1940-1960, and he uses NASA temperature graphs as his evidence.

He also says every group of government researchers around the world agrees about this.

This is in direct contradiction to what NOAA said in 1978, when they showed peak surface cooling in the Southern Hemisphere

1520-0493(1978)106<0755:GTVSMA>2.0.CO;2

This is easy to test, because there is only one country in the southern hemisphere with coherent long term data. Australia has twenty locations where temperatures have been continuously recorded back to the 1880s.

This group of stations shows that Australian temperatures peaked about a century ago, and reached their minimum during the 1970s. All metrics show the same thing.

Here is the list of stations used in this analysis.

ASN00040842.dly BRISBANE AERO   -27.3917 153.129
ASN00040223.dly BRISBANE AERO   -27.4178 153.114
ASN00040214.dly BRISBANE REGIONAL OFFICE   -27.4778 153.031
ASN00031011.dly CAIRNS AERO   -16.8736 145.746
ASN00031010.dly CAIRNS POST OFFICE   -16.9333 145.783
ASN00090015.dly CAPE OTWAY LIGHTHOUSE   -38.8556 143.513
ASN00044021.dly CHARLEVILLE AERO   -26.4139 146.256
ASN00044221.dly CHARLEVILLE AERO COMPARISON   -26.4147 146.261
ASN00044022.dly CHARLEVILLE POST OFFICE   -26.4025 146.238
ASN00048237.dly COBAR AIRPORT AWS   -31.5389 145.796
ASN00048244.dly COBAR COMPARISON   -31.4861 145.828
ASN00048027.dly COBAR MO   -31.484 145.829
ASN00048030.dly COBAR POST OFFICE   -31.5 145.8
ASN00014015.dly DARWIN AIRPORT   -12.4239 130.893
ASN00014040.dly DARWIN AIRPORT COMPARISON   -12.4227 130.884
ASN00014016.dly DARWIN POST OFFICE   -12.4 130.8
ASN00014161.dly DARWIN REGIONAL OFFICE   -12.4667 130.833
ASN00074128.dly DENILIQUIN (WILKINSON ST)   -35.5269 144.952
ASN00074210.dly DENILIQUIN AERO   -35.5333 144.967
ASN00074258.dly DENILIQUIN AIRPORT AWS   -35.5575 144.946
ASN00074039.dly DENILIQUIN FALKINER MEMORIAL   -35.3667 145.05
ASN00035264.dly EMERALD AIRPORT   -23.5694 148.176
ASN00035027.dly EMERALD POST OFFICE   -23.5267 148.162
ASN00065016.dly FORBES (CAMP STREET)   -33.3892 148.008
ASN00065103.dly FORBES AIRPORT AWS   -33.3627 147.921
ASN00055202.dly GUNNEDAH AIRPORT AWS   -30.9537 150.249
ASN00055023.dly GUNNEDAH POOL   -30.9841 150.254
ASN00055024.dly GUNNEDAH RESOURCE CENTRE   -31.0261 150.269
ASN00094029.dly HOBART (ELLERSLIE ROAD)   -42.8897 147.328
ASN00094008.dly HOBART AIRPORT   -42.8339 147.503
ASN00056242.dly INVERELL (RAGLAN ST)   -29.7796 151.112
ASN00056017.dly INVERELL COMPARISON   -29.7783 151.111
ASN00056018.dly INVERELL RESEARCH CENTRE   -29.7752 151.082
ASN00091218.dly LAUNCESTON (ELPHIN)   -41.45 147.167
ASN00091123.dly LAUNCESTON (MOUNT PLEASANT)   -41.4667 147.15
ASN00091049.dly LAUNCESTON (PUMPING STATION)   -41.5 147.2
ASN00091179.dly LAUNCESTON (RADIO STATION 7EX)   -41.45 147.15
ASN00091237.dly LAUNCESTON (TI TREE BEND)   -41.4194 147.122
ASN00091311.dly LAUNCESTON AIRPORT   -41.5492 147.214
ASN00091104.dly LAUNCESTON AIRPORT COMPARISON   -41.5397 147.203
ASN00033045.dly MACKAY AERO   -21.1706 149.179
ASN00033297.dly MACKAY COMPARISON   -21.1183 149.215
ASN00033119.dly MACKAY M.O   -21.1172 149.217
ASN00033046.dly MACKAY POST OFFICE   -21.15 149.183
ASN00086282.dly MELBOURNE AIRPORT   -37.6655 144.832
ASN00086384.dly MELBOURNE AIRPORT COMPARISON   -37.675 144.842
ASN00086071.dly MELBOURNE REGIONAL OFFICE   -37.8075 144.97
ASN00076031.dly MILDURA AIRPORT   -34.2358 142.087
ASN00076077.dly MILDURA POST OFFICE   -34.1833 142.2
ASN00026105.dly ROBE AIRFIELD   -37.1776 139.805
ASN00026026.dly ROBE COMPARISON   -37.1628 139.756
ASN00066062.dly SYDNEY (OBSERVATORY HILL)   -33.8607 151.205
ASN00066037.dly SYDNEY AIRPORT AMO   -33.9465 151.173
ASN00066196.dly SYDNEY HARBOUR (WEDDING CAKE W   -33.8414 151.263
ASN00066195.dly SYDNEY OLYMPIC PARK (SYDNEY OL   -33.8521 151.065
ASN00072151.dly WAGGA WAGGA (KOORINGAL)   -35.1333 147.367
ASN00073127.dly WAGGA WAGGA AGRICULTURAL INSTI   -35.0517 147.349
ASN00072150.dly WAGGA WAGGA AMO   -35.1583 147.457
ASN00074114.dly WAGGA WAGGA RESEARCH CENTRE   -35.1311 147.309
ASN00052088.dly WALGETT AIRPORT AWS   -30.0372 148.122
ASN00052026.dly WALGETT COUNCIL DEPOT   -30.0236 148.122

The only plausible explanation for how all the agencies got it wrong, is that they colluded to produce the same graphs – as indicated in this Climategate e-mail

di2.nu/foia/1254108338.txt

The Australian temperature graph from the Bureau of Meteorology is not only fake, but it hides all of the hot temperatures before 1910. It in no way represents Australia temperatures

Climate change and variability: Tracker: Australian timeseries graphs

January, 1896 was the hottest month on record in New South Wales, and BOM hides the heat.

23 Jan 1896 – THE HEAT WAVE. – Trove

09 Jan 1896, Page 5 – The Sydney Morning Herald at Newspapers.com

24 Jan 1896, Page 5 – The Sydney Morning Herald at Newspapers.com

TimesMachine: August 18, 1896

It was also hot in Europe in 1896.

17 Jul 1896 – HEAT-WAVE IN EUROPE.

A ten day heatwave during August 1896 killed thousands of people in the US, many of them in New York.

1896 Heatwave

Arizona’s record heatwave over 120F occurred in 1896.

1896 was also a momentous year for climate science, when it started down the path of junk science, superstition and hiding and manipulating data

As early as in 1896, Swedish physicist Arrhenius proposed that the presence of atmospheric greenhouse gases may result in warmer surface temperatures on Earth than a simple radiative balance would imply. A comparison between measured surface temperatures and estimated effective temperatures (assuming the planets behave like black bodies and are at radiational equilibrium) of the planets in our solar system has later revealed that planets with thick atmospheres, such as Venus and Earth, have a warmer surface than a simple radiation equilibrium can explain (Houghton 1991). The high surface temperature can be attributed to the greenhouse effect proposed by Arrhenius

40-3-3.14.pdf

The climate science was an actual science, its participants would want to understand the heat of the past – rather than hide it.

On October 8, 1871 the worst fires in US history occurred. Chicago burned to the ground, as did many other towns around Lake Michigan and Lake Huron. Peshtigo, Wisconsin was hardest hit, with more than 1,000 dead.

Balls of fire were observed to fall like meteors in different parts of the town.

It seemed as if the love of God had been withdrawn from the place, and the fury fiends of hell had been loosened to wantonly vex and torment the people.

25 Oct 1871, 1 – Altoona Tribune at Newspapers.com

Zeke Hausfather has determined that he knows more about the weather of the 1970s, than all of the scientists who were studying it at the time.

By definition, the temperatures recorded 40+ years ago are at least 40 years old.  Zeke is arguing that history should be ignored, because it is old. He thinks he knows better than the scientists who actually observed the global cooling in the 1970s, like NCAR, the National Academy of Sciences, and NOAA.

National Academy Of Sciences

NOAA showed cooling in both hemispheres from both surface and radiosonde measurements.

NOAA

There was no question earth was cooling sharply after the 1940s. Ice was increasing. Ice doesn’t lie, but climate scientists do.

14 Apr 1973, Page 8 – Iowa City Press-Citizen

U.S. and Soviet Press Studies of a Colder Arctic – The New York Times

18 Jul 1963 – Glaciers Grow In Norway

29 Jan 1974, 5 – The Guardian at Newspapers.com

The National Geographic Archive | November 1976 | page 1

March 1, 1975 | Science News

International Team of Specialists Finds No End in Sight to 30‐Year Cooling Trend in Northern Hemisphere – The New York Times

Forty-two top American and European researchers sent a letter to the president warning that the current rate of cooling would lead to a new ice age in about a century.

THE ROLE OF NOAA’S CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLIMATE SERVICES

This Climategate email shows that scientists at multiple agencies and different countries colluded to remove the warmth of the 1940s, and subsequent cooling.

di2.nu/foia/1254108338.txt

Zeke brags that they are using a lot more stations now, but note that there has been essentially no change in historical coverage.  All they have done is add a lot of fragmented, low quality data which scientists 40 years ago were wise enough to ignore. In the 1970s they used only high quality data, because they were actual scientists.

The only thing Zeke has accomplished is he has added a huge number of broken, fragmented stations.  Here is every single daily temperature record for Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay in the GHCN database. The vast majority of these stations should never have been used.

Zeke claims they have millions of ocean temperatures from the “mid-century period”

In this Climategate e-mail, Phil Jones said much of the Southern Hemisphere data was “made up.”

di2.nu/foia/foia2011/mail/2729.txt

NASA didn’t even pretend to have usable pre-1950 ocean data until about 15 years ago.

2001 GISS Land/Ocean Data

The methodology for collecting ocean data has created an error bar which is much greater than the claimed trend.

Zeke claims that all of these independent agencies agree, but when Gavin Schmidt at NASA was confronted obviously fraudulent temperatures in Iceland, he responded by saying his data comes from NOAA. There is nothing independent about the data.

Senator Malcolm Roberts confronted Schmidt about this data tampering.

Gavin responded with this ad hominem attack.

NASA chief slaps down climate sceptic senator Malcolm Roberts: ‘You hold a number of misconceptions’

Then he responded by saying that NASA data actually comes from NOAA. So there is nothing independent about the data sets.

robertsnasags.pdf

Zeke claims there were no cooling outside of the Northern Hemisphere higher-latitude regions

The US is the only large area with a high quality long term temperature record, and it shows sharp cooling into the 1970s, and temperatures no warmer now than 80 years ago.

Summers were much hotter in the US 80 years ago.

Zeke says he has explained his BS to “folks like me” time and time again, and that he knows better than all of the scientists who lived through and studied the warmth of the 1940s and subsequent cooling.

Then Scott Denning at CSU jumped in with a spectacular and disgusting ad hominem attack.  I have no relationship with Ned Nikolov or any Kardashian.  I did however have a relationship with Denning’s far more accomplished colleague Dr. Bill Gray, who asked me on his deathbed to carry on his climate legacy. I tried for nearly a year to get Denning to join Bill and myself for lunch in Fort Collins, and Scott found an excuse to chicken out at the last minute every time. Bill is gone now and I intend to ramp up my effort to expose climate misinformers like Denning and Hausfather.

Bill Gray: A Towering Figure in Hurricane Science | Dr. Jeff Masters’ WunderBlog

Speaking of which, I attended a lecture at CSU about ten years ago, which I believe was given by Denning. A woman asked him if global warming would produce more extreme weather.  He gave an emphatic no, other than the possibility that some hurricanes may get stronger.